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11/13-11/14 Clipper


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This morning's GFS and Canadian are robust with the weekend clipper.  Meanwhile, the UK barely shows any clipper at all.  Last night's Euro was much weaker than its previous run, but so was the GFS and it came back strong this morning.

snku_024h.us_mw.png

snku_024h.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This morning's Euro is a bit stronger again, but also much farther northeast.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It looks like my area might be in for more than just a few flakes as I earlier thought. NOAA suggests something more than snowshowers or flurries:

 

The large/deep 500 MB low/trough will be slow to depart the Great
Lakes region over the Weekend, and the cold west-northwest flow
coming off Lake Michigan still may be sufficient to generate
isolated-scattered snow showers from time to time. Will be watching
a clipper like system for potential accumulating snow, which could
arrive by Sunday. This system will tend to re-enforce the cold air
in place, so even if it dives southeast through the Ohio River
Valley (GFS/Canadian), Lake effect will likely become enhanced for a
period (see 12z UKMET). Otherwise, the first widespread light
snowfall is possible if the clipper decides to take a farther north
track (see 12z EURO). Not surprising, wide range of solutions seen
in the 12z Euro solutions...stay tuned.

@jaster220:even GRR office is onboard w this!

  • Snow 3

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Tonight's GFS and Euro are very weak.

  • Sad 2

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

That's how most clippers seem to trend.

Yep, Hybrids>clippers

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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At least my office is talking about the potential, even if it doesn't materialize this time around.

 

Quote
Scattered lake effect rain/snow showers persist into Sunday as a
weak fast-moving shortwave drops out of the Canadian Prairie into
the central Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. There continues to be spread
in the exact track among tonight`s runs with the GFS and Canadian
taking a southerly route into the Ohio Valley and the Euro taking a
northerly track more or less directly over SE MI. A more southerly
track will limit potential snowfall for the area (aside from
enhancing the lake effect response) whereas the Euro track would
lead to our first widespread accumulating snowfall.

 

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  • Storm 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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SMI could look festive on Sunday. Not expecting a lot of accumulations. A coating cannot be ruled out though. Temps will be too warm as they hover above freezing for the majority of the day. Nevertheless, snow is looking likely for now. "Tis The Season" y'all.

  • Snow 3

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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2 hours ago, Niko said:

SMI could look festive on Sunday. Not expecting a lot of accumulations. A coating cannot be ruled out though. Temps will be too warm as they hover above freezing for the majority of the day. Nevertheless, snow is looking likely for now. "Tis The Season" y'all.

GFS wants to give you an inch or two.  That would be a nice little appetizer for ya.

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13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GFS wants to give you an inch or two.  That would be a nice little appetizer for ya.

Indeed. Perhaps an overachiever in the works??!! It will be an interesting weather day.

Btw: have ya noticed how temps in the long run have trended colder and colder. Any warmth has been terminated!!!

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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28 minutes ago, Niko said:

Indeed. Perhaps an overachiever in the works??!! It will be an interesting weather day.

Btw: have ya noticed how temps in the long run have trended colder and colder. Any warmth has been terminated!!!

Yes it's looking good.

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Euro is stronger again, drops a few inches from eastern ND to Minneapolis to southern Wisconsin.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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18Z GFS  shows a 1-2inch snowfall for SMI. Interesting scenario shaping up. Lets see what other models predict. Nothing to go crazy over, but, its looking like the first snowfall of the season, which I rather it be on the light side. These amounts are just about perfect for mid month. Save the doozy ones for late November and beyond.

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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KMKE is even talking lake effect snow possibilities!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MKX&issuedby=MKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[Quote]The main story with this event is the likelihood that it will be mostly, if not all, snow. Although surface temperatures may climb above freezing Sunday afternoon, steep low level lapse rates will likely mean only a very shallow layer of above freezing temperatures. This suggests mostly snow with maybe some rain mixing with any higher temperatures reaching into the upper 30s. These lapse rates being fairly steep could also indicate potential for some banding and more convective snow. The track is also notable with this event as recent models suggest the surface low could track right through southern Wisconsin, though there remains some uncertainty. This would likely bring northeast flow for at least a part of this event. Given lake temperatures in the low to mid 50s we could end up seeing lake to 850mb temperature differences in the 15-18 degree range. This would be plenty large enough for a period of lake enhancement to potentially bump snow totals along the shoreline and just inland. Overall snow totals are expected to be relatively light at this point, but if we see a bump in QPF amounts as mentioned earlier we could see those amounts increase as we get closer to the event. Highest amounts would likely be along the shoreline where lake enhancement would have the largest effect. There remain uncertainties in timing and track among other areas but the big picture is starting to become a bit clearer with this event.[Quote]

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NOAA:

A lot to sort through in the next couple of days as synoptic
support is expected to be great enough to support a potential for a
very dynamic system over the cwa even though it expected to remain
progressive. The obstacle to predictability with this Sunday
forecast is that members of the 00Z EPS remain all over the board
with very little agreement on the track of the system. Depth of the
upper level trough and magnitude of potential vorticity suggests
this is a system to monitor. For messaging purposes the potential
definitely exists for a widespread inch or more of snow late Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night. A lot of moving parts but precipitation
should begin in the form of rain before transitioning to a mix with
loss of daytime heating. Exit region of the target upper level jet
packet and strong absolute vorticity energy is not expected to
arrive off of the Pacific until after 00Z Saturday. Thus, big model
shifts/track adjustments will probably be ongoing until the full
system gets sampled 12Z Saturday morning.
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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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It's a clipper Clarence, so anything can happen, but DTX thinking a legit snowfall may be on tap here Sat night/early Sunday:

Quote
There is high confidence in precipitation type as a snow. The forecast
sounding in the operational runs are a very cold one even for the
daylight hours with the 1.0 to 5.0 kft agl layer in the -4 to -6 C
range. Still tough to see the amount of variance with regards to
ptype amongst the ensemble members of the old EPS suite. Peak of the
precipitation (snowfall rates) appears between 15-22Z Sunday just as
frontal surface at 700mb slides overhead. Consensus of the models
suggests a safe forecast of around 0.20 of an inch. Separation of
the thermal wave off of the main baroclinic zone well south of the
state limits any higher end solution for precipitation amounts.
Respecting the cold sounding with .20 liquid equivalent suggests
snow amounts of around 2 inches will be possible by Sunday. Thinking
some slushy snow could accumulate on the roadways in the rates, but
will melt with time. The full upper level jet packet and shortwave
is expected to be sampled by 12Z Saturday morning so some
improvements to predictability may occur.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NAM KCH going bonkers in the OHV Lwr Lks with this thing. Is my hand already hot here? Right outta the gate?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021111300&fh=51&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Tom

That Euro looks more seasonally realistic ofc - 1" of melting stuff around here to set a wintry mood. Glad you posted tho.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NOAA:

Attention then turns to a shortwave feature that has now made it
inland across southern British Columbia and Alberta, which will
deepen and travel east across North Dakota. A strengthening low
pressure system will develop as a result, with this clipper system
progressing east into Wisconsin by Sunday 12Z. Confidence remains
high regarding the track of this system, with excellent model
convergence observed over the past 48 hours. This system will push
east into Michigan between 12-18Z and will exit SE MI by 00Z Monday
and will bring the likely first accumulating widespread snow event
to Michigan for the season.

 

Btw: This clipper type system is excellent in terms of putting ya in the holiday spirit. This is looking like an 1-3" event, which is perfection for mid November standards.

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  • Snow 1

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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I'm liking the way radar looks. The only concern with a potential north shift is upper air thermals. Gotta keep the warm front away.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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Last nights now is for the most part all gone now. There is still snow on most roofs and there are patches of snow on the ground here and there. For what it is worth parts of west Michigan are in a Winter Weather Advisory. The NWS call is for a general 1 to 3" of possible snow fall. My thinking is that it may just be too warm for that much snow to acclimate, it may fall but not stick. We shall see. Cloudy and 39 here now. 

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1 hour ago, Madtown said:

looks farther north than I was thinking?

Yup, was about to say NAM is gonna win. Low looks like it'll pass right over me.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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42 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Finished with 2" here. Wouldn't be surprised if the airport got a bit more.

If NW flow features this all winter, I'd be fine wit it

  • Sad 1

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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14 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Up to 1.6" with that last band. I'm in the eye now, let's get to 2.

"Build the Base"...hopefully it won't get nuked by the next bigger system next week Tue/Wed that's tracking north of the border.  I gotta say, I do like what I'm seeing in terms of the ever expanding snow pack across southern Canada. 

BTW, you may get a quick hitting "overrunning event" late tonight as the warm front pushes in from the west.  Add a couple more inches??

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

"Build the Base"...hopefully it won't get nuked by the next bigger system next week Tue/Wed that's tracking north of the border.  I gotta say, I do like what I'm seeing in terms of the ever expanding snow pack across southern Canada. 

BTW, you may get a quick hitting "overrunning event" late tonight as the warm front pushes in from the west.  Add a couple more inches??

This snowpack is gonna get nuked Tuesday when I'm well into the 40s.

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  • Sun 2

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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Impressive. This was just from the ULL swing-thru not this clipper.

West side suburb of Kalamazoo:

000
NWUS53 KGRR 131719
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1219 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     SNOW             1 SW OSHTEMO            42.25N 85.69W
11/13/2021  M6.0 IN           KALAMAZOO          MI   PUBLIC
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  • Snow 2

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 8.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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First snowflakes falling thus far this season. Current obs. are: light snow w a temp of 33F. Its way BN tempwise. Looks beautiful outside looking at the snow fall. I'd call this the appetizer b4 the real snows kick in later on.

  • Snow 4

Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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34 minutes ago, Niko said:

First snowflakes falling thus far this season. Current obs. are: light snow w a temp of 33F. Its way BN tempwise. Looks beautiful outside looking at the snow fall. I'd call this the appetizer b4 the real snows kick in later on.

Enjoy it and soak it all in.  More to come I’m sure of it.  This might be one of those seasons where we can “share in the wealth” by these clippers and southern stream systems.

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