Geos Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 I got a feeling it will probably be November before we see flakes here. Down to 44° here. Finally cleared out after a very overcast and windy day. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 Looks like some of us might see our first snow flakes on Thursday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 Looks like some of us might see our first snow flakes on Thursday00z Euro is painting a couple inches of snow near Hayward and places near by. Prob a bit overdone, but it does fall overnight which could be possible. You may get some wrap around snow showers in your area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 Looks like some of us might see our first snow flakes on Thursday Yeah maybe you will! With temps in the mid 30s at this time. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 Looks too warm for snow IMO. Some guidance doesn't even get below 40F at night for the entire week. This system just doesn't bring in a lot of cold air with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 It can snow with temps in the 30's and 40's it's not that unusual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 Arctic temps starting to crash again...AO is supposed to head positive for the first part of November. Wonder if that is just nature loading up the cold before it will come south into the lower 48 sometime in November??? http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 One thing to point out, the long range gfs shows a lot of storms coming out of the southwest, hopefully the dominant component of the LRC!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 One thing to point out, the long range gfs shows a lot of storms coming out of the southwest, hopefully the dominant component of the LRC!!Need the cold down here though. At least in the south where I'm at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Everybody should check out this site if you are interested in finding some fantastic data. You can look up snowfall totals for each month going all the way back to the late 1800's. It also allows you to see which days the snowstorms occurred on and how much snow fell. http://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/# 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Looking forward to another widespread soaker in the region from the Tue/Wed system. Pretty large system that will impact a wide range of the eastern CONUS. I hope to see some breezy conditions along with it to blow the leaves off the trees quicker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Next weekend, the models will come in an hour earlier...ahhh, finally! So the 06z NAM will be the first model to "feel" the change and come in at 2:30am??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Storm looks to deepen enough to put some snow down in the upper Midwest on Thursday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Both GFS/EURO are developing an active pattern to start hitting the west coast as systems start targeting the Rockies. Looks like a great SW Flow pattern may start evolving as a ridge develops in the East over the next 5-15 days. The Euro Weeklies last week picked this up and seems to be lining up now. The Rockies will be getting some heavy snows and parts of NE may see there first snows in the early part of November. Some of the individual Euro Ensembles have snows in the western NE over the next 2 weeks. I like the looks of the new LRC developing this year. -PNA/-EPO/-NAO pattern poses a great set up for systems to target the central CONUS. Especially, if there is a west-based Greenland block. Euro EPS picking up on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Does anyone else think it is very odd to have such a Huge ridge developing Week 1-2 in the East/SE, especially during a Strong El NINO??? Doesn't bode well for storms up the EC if this is part of the LRC pattern this year. Good pattern for storm systems in the west/central CONUS. I'm really interested to see next months JAMSTEC mode's output for the Dec-Feb period. I think that model was the only one which had the coldest temps centered farther back west in the central states...might be catching onto something. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Does anyone else think it is very odd to have such a Huge ridge developing Week 1-2 in the East/SE, especially during a Strong El NINO??? Doesn't bode well for storms up the EC if this is part of the LRC pattern this year. Good pattern for storm systems in the west/central CONUS. I'm really interested to see next months JAMSTEC mode's output for the Dec-Feb period. I think that model was the only one which had the coldest temps centered farther back west in the central states...might be catching onto something. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gifIt is very odd to see the ridge there. I have no conclusions yet as to why though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 12z GFS says....say SNOW??? Nice Plains/Upper Lakes cutter in the Day 7-10... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102612/gfs_asnow_us_41.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Just Northwest of us in Central Nebraska. Liking the trends. Thanks for the map Tom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Just Northwest of us in Central Nebraska. Liking the trends. Thanks for the map Tom.Sure thing...I think the models are beginning to pick up on the -EPO that will be building in and NW/Western Canada loads up with some cold air while the Pacific systems enter the picture. Interesting setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Models have really solidified with a nice rain event for eastern Iowa Tuesday through early Wednesday. October may turn out pretty decent after not getting a drop of rain for the first three weeks. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Been awhile.since a true cutter pattern has shown up. Would love to see it in december through march rather than now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Does anyone else think it is very odd to have such a Huge ridge developing Week 1-2 in the East/SE, especially during a Strong El NINO??? Doesn't bode well for storms up the EC if this is part of the LRC pattern this year. Good pattern for storm systems in the west/central CONUS. I'm really interested to see next months JAMSTEC mode's output for the Dec-Feb period. I think that model was the only one which had the coldest temps centered farther back west in the central states...might be catching onto something. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2016.1oct2015.gifThese maps are always impressive in the way it shows how much of the globe is going to be above normal again. It's easy to see why Earth keeps breaking records for warmest month/ year recorded time and time again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 12z EPS/Control have a wintry look for the northern Plains for the first week of November. The Control went nuts and pounded the Black Hills/Rockies and NW NE....even the lower lakes in OH/IN and points East showed snow from another system. Seems like the modeling may be favoring a quite colder pattern as we flip the Calendar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Nice storm on the 18z GFS in the HR 222-240 period (11-04/11-05) SD/ND with 12+ inches of snow. 996 in SE NE at HR 240 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Haven't seen maps like these in a longgg time...Winter knocking on the door... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 GFS gets pretty chilly in the long range after that storm as well (low's in the 20's and highs in the 30's/low 40's across most of the area) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 That storm looks great. Been showing up on the last few runs. The GFS overall looks quite active. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Euro next 10 days healthy amount above average Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Euro next 10 days healthy amount above average LOL. Knew you were gonna chime in about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Euro Weeklies not skipping a beat with keeping an active southern storm track. Cali/4 corners region should have their fair share of stormy weather next month. The entire month, the model keeps ridging in the N PAC which may shift the storm track farther south on the west coast. LOL. Knew you were gonna chime in about that.It's not even close to being above normal where he lives, except maybe Sunday/Monday. Numerous days in the 40's near MSP/GRB area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Euro Weeklies not skipping a beat with keeping an active southern storm track. Cali/4 corners region should have their fair share of stormy weather next month. The entire month, the model keeps ridging in the N PAC which may shift the storm track farther south on the west coast. It's not even close to being above normal where he lives, except maybe Sunday/Monday. Numerous days in the 40's near MSP/GRB area.Live 20 miles from rochester. Average high is 49 right now. Average low is 31 right now. still want to argue we are not going to be above average? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 LOL. Knew you were gonna chime in about that.Its true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015102618/gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_2.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 Live 20 miles from rochester. Average high is 49 right now. Average low is 31 right now. still want to argue we are not going to be above average?Besides nightime lows, your not that far off to having normal temps through the next 10 days. Areas south, including my area, we will prob end up above normal especially if that system in early November pumps up the ridge out ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 So it is above average. Just like october Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 You avg high is 49 right now? Northern Iowa avg high is still upper 50s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Yes according to gfs mex data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 No cold November on the Euro huh? Going to be a disappointing deer rifle season for me down here if that verifies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Average high in Rochester for October 26 is 54 http://www.weather.gov/arx/normoct.rst Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 27, 2015 Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Average high in Rochester for October 26 is 54 http://www.weather.gov/arx/normoct.rstMy bad. Gfs mex lists it as average but it is.for hour 168-192. Anyways verbatim the euro is above average and the gefs is as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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