PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you thinking a February 2019 redux is going to happen?

would like, we had a big storm in late Feb then, was almost borderline ground blizzard conditions after it.  lots of blowing and drifting in my yard

[Kayla]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you thinking a February 2019 redux is going to happen?

Unlikely...but always possible I suppose. That one came in multiple waves and we're only really looking at the first cold wave at this point and that might be it after the first week of Feb. I'd wager for cold'ish onshore flow by mid month and beyond.

Something is definitely coming though and I do think the cold will be a bit more centered over the Intermountain region this time around so much more likely for Portland folks to do well.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you thinking a February 2019 redux is going to happen?

I doubt it’s anything close to that, but who knows.

The February events in 2018, 2019, and 2021 all followed major SSW events timed well w/ intraseasonal cycles.

Feb 2022 will be evolving into a +NAM/strong vortex state with some degree of -PNA arising from the IO/Indo MJO, which may be transient in nature (save any leftover low freq tendencies).

Colder than average pattern, yes, but it doesn’t strike me as an ideal setup for arctic cold. Just my opinion, though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX’s 60-less season was about a month and a half this year. They hit it today.

[Phil]

EPS weeklies also hinting at another MJO transit across the WPAC/WHEM late February into March.

Assuming +NAM is the dominant signal going into that, then it’s likely the pattern either trends warm/progressive towards the end of February, or returns to a +TNH type look.

[TacomaWaWx]

11 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Unlikely...but always possible I suppose. That one came in multiple waves and we're only really looking at the first cold wave at this point and that might be it after the first week of Feb. I'd wager for cold'ish onshore flow by mid month and beyond.

Something is definitely coming though and I do think the cold will be a bit more centered over the Intermountain region this time around so much more likely for Portland folks to do well.

That’s close what I’ve been thinking for the last week now. Think this event ends up being 3 or 4 34/30 temp spread days with 1 or 2 chances of snow mostly favoring Oregon this time. It’s obviously way too early to know that just a guess. 

[TacomaWaWx]

53 here and some sunbreaks. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It rained one night for a couple hours in Feb 2020. Snow came back in March but wasn't a great amount. 

Glad you still get snow in KY.

[Phil]

[Phil]

This would be a top-10 strong PV event in terms of 10mb zonal winds @ 65N (for early February).

[jakerepp]

From my dad and brother at their respective workplaces in Boise. That's just over an hour worth of snow.

[RentonHill]

18z just a little different than 12z

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

18z just a little different than 12z

 

[RentonHill]

 

[LowerGarfield]

The torch is real though. I just killed a yellow jacket on the outside screen. I'm hoping there isn't a nest inside somewhere. It looked to be a worker as it is all striped and not spotted like most queens. Shocked because it is sunny but not that warm. Was hoping it was a queen but probably not. That's another reason to root for cold weather. Shocked to find one now when we had such low temps last month.

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[Timmy Supercell]

8 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

The torch is real though. I just killed a yellow jacket on the outside screen. I'm hoping there isn't a nest inside somewhere. It looked to be a worker as it is all striped and not spotted like most queens. Shocked because it is sunny but not that warm. Was hoping it was a queen but probably not. That's another reason to root for cold weather. Shocked to find one now when we had such low temps last month.

Sounds like Christmas I had here, there was one day a wasp would never leave one of my windows. Back in Klamath these things died by beginning of November. 

[TacomaWaWx]

New gfs would be pretty interesting if it verified. No rain for the rest of January then some rain transitioning to cold and snow in early February. 

[TacomaWaWx]

53/48 today…likely going to get a midnight low considering it’s already down to 49. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Noice 

[RentonHill]

Days 10-15 

[RentonHill]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Noice 

Hey mr MBA is back for druncle!

[RentonHill]

18z GEFS at day 10 vs 12z

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Hey mr MBA is back for druncle!

I’m ready to model run 24/7 again!! Bring out the plow!!! @MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet hour 424 on the operational would look great.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I bet hour 424 on the operational would look great.

I was thinking the same thing.

[RentonHill]

Hr 270 GEFS vs 12z

[RentonHill]

[luvssnow_spokane]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

This is great but I assume this will get pushed back about two weeks like every other time we see this in the long range. 

 

[RentonHill]

Solid improvement thru hr 294

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, the operational is quite a bit warmer than the mean from the 28th-2nd. 

[RentonHill]

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s starting to feel like we’re building towards something interesting again. 

[RentonHill]

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wait what?

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wait what?

 

 

Wowzers.

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s gotten pretty breezy here and the clouds have increased as the convergence zone slides south. It might hit us or fizzle and mostly be east of here we will see. Down to 47. 

[RentonHill]

5 day 850s

[RentonHill]