PNW January 2022, Contact Info for Phil

[SnowWillarrive]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We'll have to wait and see if we really get hosed like the models are showing or not.  Tough call.

Saw someone on Twitter from Lea Hill in Auburn reporting mixed rain and snow. That has to bode well for areas farther east. 

[bainbridgekid]

Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1

[KingstonWX]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1

So widespread 8" confirmed?

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1

Dude must love the taste of crow.  

[Hawksfan2008]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Dude must love the taste of crow.  

It’s almost like he’s doing it to say “I told you so” at this point. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Holding at 37 here for the high so far today with east winds hanging on. See the south with is up to Aurora now though so should just be a matter of hours until PDX pops into the low 50s probably mid to upper 40s here 

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Good! I ordered a fancy two person side by side sled since the kids small plastic one broke last week. Hopefully they will get to use it this season! 

It's coming 

[Hawksfan2008]

Morgan Palmer calling out the possibility and admitting he doesn’t know. Good for him. Humility. 

[bainbridgekid]

18z Euro comes out in 20 minutes. If it holds serve I’d have to imagine we will see some of the pros start talking about tonight more seriously.

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Morgan Palmer calling out the possibility and admitting he doesn’t know. Good for him. Humility. 

He's always been pretty honest. I've always appreciated that.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1

Perfect, it’s going to snow!! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

Winds still cranking though the gap between big gusts is getting longer.  We have been at 44 most of the day, but the temp is starting to drop and is now at 41.  It also clouded back up and we are seeing a little bit of rain.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z Euro comes out in 20 minutes. If it holds serve I’d have to imagine we will see some of the pros start talking about tonight more seriously.

The front is already moving inland... its moving along pretty fast.     Might be time for them to figure out what will happen over the next 8 hours.  

[gusky]

I've been a bit skeptical of Cliff Mass's forecasts recently too, but I think we have to be a bit realistic here... this event is EXTREMELY marginal. Temps aren't likely to go to freezing on their own, and any snow would rely on heavy precip to cool the air. Even then, a large, disruptive snow event just isn't likely (especially 5 inches like the GFS says).

 

NAM and most other models, with the notable exception of the GFS, don't think sfc will cool below 34/35 tonight and tomorrow night. To be fair, BFI is currently measuring 8 degrees cooler than NAM predicted, so could be closer than expected.

I personally think that snow levels will reach sea level, but I would be surprised to see accumulations over an inch for metro areas. As always, I want nothing more than for this post to reverse jinx it and to get absolutely BURIED in snow, but I can't help but feel that the actual NWS forecasters, some of the top experts in the area, and Cliff Mass are right here.

[gusky]

In other news, I think the front might be here... (I'll just ignore the tornado indicated in RadarScope lol)

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, gusky said:

In other news, I think the front might be here... (I'll just ignore the tornado indicated in RadarScope lol)

7PM to Midnight is when models indicate the I-5 corridor will have the heaviest precip rates. Looks about right to me.

[MossMan]

Getting very dark all of a sudden. 
38.3 degrees. 
impressive amount of water coming off my roof. 

[KingstonWX]

9 minutes ago, gusky said:

I've been a bit skeptical of Cliff Mass's forecasts recently too, but I think we have to be a bit realistic here... this event is EXTREMELY marginal. Temps aren't likely to go to freezing on their own, and any snow would rely on heavy precip to cool the air. Even then, a large, disruptive snow event just isn't likely (especially 5 inches like the GFS says).

 

NAM and most other models, with the notable exception of the GFS, don't think sfc will cool below 34/35 tonight and tomorrow night. To be fair, BFI is currently measuring 8 degrees cooler than NAM predicted, so could be closer than expected.

I personally think that snow levels will reach sea level, but I would be surprised to see accumulations over an inch for metro areas. As always, I want nothing more than for this post to reverse jinx it and to get absolutely BURIED in snow, but I can't help but feel that the actual NWS forecasters, some of the top experts in the area, and Cliff Mass are right here.

As much as I hate to say it, I think you are right. I hope the atmosphere proves both of us wrong though.

[ShawniganLake]

41F with some very heavy rain over the last 1/2 hour here. 

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, gusky said:

I've been a bit skeptical of Cliff Mass's forecasts recently too, but I think we have to be a bit realistic here... this event is EXTREMELY marginal. Temps aren't likely to go to freezing on their own, and any snow would rely on heavy precip to cool the air. Even then, a large, disruptive snow event just isn't likely (especially 5 inches like the GFS says).

 

NAM and most other models, with the notable exception of the GFS, don't think sfc will cool below 34/35 tonight and tomorrow night. To be fair, BFI is currently measuring 8 degrees cooler than NAM predicted, so could be closer than expected.

I personally think that snow levels will reach sea level, but I would be surprised to see accumulations over an inch for metro areas. As always, I want nothing more than for this post to reverse jinx it and to get absolutely BURIED in snow, but I can't help but feel that the actual NWS forecasters, some of the top experts in the area, and Cliff Mass are right here.

NWS doesn't even mention a rain snow mix.

[FroYoBro]

50 degrees in Tigard and 39 degrees at PDX. Always fun to see the big differences in temperatures in setups like this. 

[gusky]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

NWS doesn't even mention a rain snow mix.

I'll be honest, I found that a bit weird... accumulations might be unlikely, but you'd think they would mention the chances, however low, of snow levels briefly dropping to sea level.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Joseph Oregon is a town that knows how to hang onto some legit cold. Currently 3 there with a 12/-5 day so far. 

[bainbridgekid]

18z increased snow totals over the 12z.

 

[bainbridgekid]

And the 10:1 map just for giggles.

 

[Weiner Warrior]

Snoqualmie looks horrible. Good for skiing.

[Weiner Warrior]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

And the 10:1 map just for giggles.

 

I'm locking in the 10:1 maps. Screw it. 12 inches for Seattle!!

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

And the 10:1 map just for giggles.

 

Is that all in 9 hours?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

And the 10:1 map just for giggles.

 

temps?

 

[GHweatherChris]

[SeanNyberg]

Between Seattle and Everett from now to 10AM tomorrow:
18Z Euro: 4.5-6" (Kuchera ratio) 10-12" (10:1 ratio)
18Z GFS: 4.5-6.5" (Kuchera ratio) 6-8" (10:1 ratio)
18Z NAM: 2-6" (Kuchera ratio) 2-8" (10:1 ratio)
18Z NBM: 0-2" (10:1 ratio)

Across the models you get 0-12" over the next 18 hours anywhere between Seattle and Everett and areas to the east.

National Weather Service doesn't even mention the chance of a rain/snow mix.
While the higher totals are extremely unlikely, not even suggesting anything seems a bit odd and a bit irresponsible. Even if it ends up being right, that will be more luck than honest forecasting. Especially since we're coming off of a week+ of snow, it is not like the first snow chance of the year where people might freak out. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Another increase.

Shows the heaviest snow up around Everett and Lynnwood.

Interestingly... the ECMWF showed almost half an inch of precip at SEA by 4 p.m. today and they have only had .02 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Another increase.

 

8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

18z increased snow totals over the 12z.

 

So weird to see see Everett and even Seattle with much more accumulation than me. I do not approve.

[smerfylicious]

Keeps bouncing between 33-35 here. Winds up to 20mph mostly sustained. 

Dew point is back below freezing though. Signs point to...maybe?

[jakerepp]

8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

And the 10:1 map just for giggles.

 

Welp I'm in the bullseye so if anything gonna happen, I'm gonna see something. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard to throw out the euro at this range. Wtf is going on this year with the models.

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Another increase.

Bothell in the bullseye is what I like to see.

[smerfylicious]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hard to throw out the euro at this range. Wtf is going on this year with the models.

They both got "updated"

Which given the GFS track record, it's hitting it out of the park compared to what it used to do.

Both models are really struggling with marginal events, however. Anything with close to 0 850's seems to show it dumping snow for both, hence why we've had some pretty epic misses.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Honestly the front looks ahead of schedule and not really stalling, looks to be moving along to the east fast. 

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

 

So weird to see see Everett and even Seattle with much more accumulation than me. I do not approve.

No matter what those maps say your location will still get 12+ inches