inferno Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 SQUASHY SQUASHY SAYS THE ARTIC INTRUSION Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone8 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Earlier in the year, I think it was North Carolina, a bunch of folks got stranded on the interstate. Lots of finger pointing in that deal. My point is, is the potential severity of this storm being communicated to the public? I rarely watch the TV but turned on Skillings forecast last nite. He talked about the storm but no real emphasis on folks needing to stay home and off the roads. Is anyone seeing travel warnings, etc??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 06z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z GFS... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GFS... This is just getting drier and drier for us 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Tom said: 12z GFS... Not as good as it could have been (for our area), congrats to Central IL, Indiana and Michigan peeps. If there is a next one then hopefully us a little farther north and west can cash in on a 12"+ storm. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: This is just getting drier and drier for us I feel for you guys over there, my totals are coming in lower also. Fingers crossed that the GFS is to dry to the west. Pulling for the Euro! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Tony said: Not as good as it could have been (for our area), congrats to Central IL, Indiana and Michigan peeps. If there is a next one then hopefully us a little farther north and west can cash in on a 12"+ storm. I agree, you can't win them all...let them enjoy GHD-3??? Certainly is looking like a bonafide winter storm for the S MW region. I can't remember a year where C IL/IN got hit with a significant snowstorm. I know back in DEC 2000 there were many storms that hit their area but not as big as this one. Congrats to those down south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z ICON 12z RDPS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 The models are drying me out and I'm still sticking with my 2-3" forecast from yesterday. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'd worry about that second wave if I was in Southern Michigan. Don't think the higher end totals will verify. Just my opinion though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z GEFS 10:1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, mlgamer said: The models are drying me out and I'm still sticking with my 2-3" forecast from yesterday. The models teased us so good for days just to back out in the last 24 hours! Hopefully we can crank out a biggy since we are in the busy pattern later this month 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z Canadian continues to be aggressive for the city... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z UKIE with a slight jog NW and that has happened now for 3-4 runs in a row. I remember a couple days ago it had the snow way down south over the Apps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Canadian continues to be aggressive for the city... Interesting, the Canadian models have been working the opposite way the the GFS and NAM have. Is it a flaw or are they on to something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z Canadian continues to be aggressive for the city... Really nails the city. Hope it happens 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Good luck everyone. Those are some sharp cut offs around Chicago and KC. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Clinton said: Interesting, the Canadian models have been working the opposite way the the GFS and NAM have. Is it a flaw or are they on to something? I think It might be bullish on the LES part of the storm 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: Interesting, the Canadian models have been working the opposite way the the GFS and NAM have. Is it a flaw or are they on to something? I always found that they are the best with NW Flow/Clipper systems but not really with southern stream storms. I'd love to see the Euro stick with the north camp to buy into it. I also want to see the Lehs/Lake Plume develop in today's 12z run. I find it odd that LOT is suggesting the lake effect set up is not impressive even thought Delta T's will be more than suitable for LES. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Tom said: I always found that they are the best with NW Flow/Clipper systems but not really with southern stream storms. I'd love to see the Euro stick with the north camp to buy into it. I also want to see the Lehs/Lake Plume develop in today's 12z run. I find it odd that LOT is suggesting the lake effect set up is not impressive even thought Delta T's will be more than suitable for LES. Looks to be a long duration Lake Effect shown on most modeling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Tony said: Looks to be a long duration Lake Effect shown on most modeling Ya, based on the data coming in it appears that a solid 12-24 hours of both Lehs & LES combo...this could be the saving grace to see some appreciable snow near the lake for those north of the city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just watch ABC7 and she is really doing a disservice to her viewers.. not once mentioning LES… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z Euro a little more juiced and a little better for Chicago. KC Chicago Detroit 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Clinton said: 12z Euro a little more juiced and a little better for Chicago. KC Chicago Detroit So pretty much it’s the Euro/Canadian/icon on one team and the GFS/NAM on the other. The battle is on! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: So pretty much it’s the Euro/Canadian/icon on one team and the GFS/NAM on the other. The battle is on! You got. The Hi-Res models could be useful this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z NDFD looks solid 10:1 map NBM 10:1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 HRRR has been slowly tapping NW with the snow swath in recent runs. 12z had 0.9 inches at ORD at 4am Wednesday. The newest 17z has 3 inches at the same time. 3 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Sciascia said: HRRR has been slowly tapping NW with the snow swath in recent runs. 12z had 0.9 inches at ORD at 4am Wednesday. The newest 17z has 3 inches at the same time. 15z RAP is even better and slowly inching northward also... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 15z RAP... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Tom said: 15z RAP... I would pay an irrational amount of money to get that to verify... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, The Snowman said: I would pay an irrational amount of money to get that to verify... Me to! LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 12z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUMase Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Any chance this shifts more south and impacts central Ohio more? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 I will say it's much warmer than predicted today. I hit 47. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Found this interesting from Garys blog. Thundersnow is a possibility. Something to watch for: There is a chance of a line of heavy snow to develop into what we call a convective band. Lightning and thunder are not out of the question. The models with the higher totals try to set up this band near KC around midnight. I will be looking for this possibility. If it does form, 3" would fall in a short period of time. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 The SREF plumes continue to rise for me. 15z had a mean of 12.37"! I don't know how much that's worth in the grand scheme of things, but there it is... 2 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 49 minutes ago, Tom said: 15z RAP... My favorite model...so far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 1, 2022 Report Share Posted February 1, 2022 Here we go: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1219 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 MIZ055-060>063-068>070-020915- /O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0001.220202T0900Z-220204T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0001.220202T0900Z-220203T1200Z/ Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland- Macomb- Including the cities of Sandusky, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, and Warren 1219 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13 inches or more. * WHERE...Sanilac, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties. * WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain is expected to change over to snow during the early to mid morning hours on Wednesday, with snow then increasing in coverage. Prolonged snowfall will then persist through the remainder of the day, before tapering off throughout Thursday morning. Snowfall rates on the order of a half inch to three quarter of an inch are expected, with possible rates up to an inch per hour at times. Gusty winds from the north also may contribute to blowing snow and reductions to visibilities starting Wednesday afternoon. Significant impacts to travel are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Significant impacts to travel are likely. Wind chills to drop into the single digits by Thursday morning and negative single digits by Friday morning. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Now, tbh, I have not seen this written in my forecast in a "Very" long time.... "Travel could be very difficult to impossible". 2 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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