November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I'll have to jump in and agree here. It doesn't make sense that they round up with one and round down with the other.

 

Not at all suggesting some sort of conspiracy, because that would be silly, but some sort of explanation beyond the predictable condescension of an aging Hockinsonian softball coach would be nice.

Maybe a teacher could chime in. Seems pretty simple to me. For instance, matter if the high is 49.5 or 50.4, it still goes down as good ol' 50 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure I would call the gfs runs promising, but they could be worse.

 

I meant promising for some interesting weather and mountain snows.  Patterns that have a chance of leading to the good stuff.

[snow_wizard]

10 degrees at Stampede Pass tonight.  Pretty impressive for them.

 

This inversion has turned into quite a beast now.  Too bad it's almost over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 degrees at Stampede Pass tonight.  Pretty impressive for them.

 

This inversion has turned into quite a beast now.  Too bad it's almost over.

 

As I told myself on 12/11/2013. All good things must eventually come to an end. Especially in our climate. 

[MossMan]

Down to 25 degrees!

[TT-SEA]

As I told myself on 12/11/2013. All good things must eventually come to an end. Especially in our climate. 

 

If there had been snow on the ground going in then I would be sad to see it end.

 

As it is... this has no sentimental value to me.   It will feel nice when it warms up.  

[Deweydog]

As I told myself on 12/11/2013. All good things must eventually come to an end. Especially in our climate.

As we drove by the impressive shady frosty area on 119th Street by Chuck's Produce I shed a salty tear for its imminent demise.

[FroYoBro]

Broncos jumping around and celebrating like they won the game... while leaving Brady with 1 minute to do his work. 

 

Never celebrate in that situation.   Brady is amazing in 2 minute drill.   Take away all his receivers and he still does it.  

Sports post. Ban him. 

 

28 degrees now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No perfect season for the Pats. :/

[TT-SEA]

Sports post. Ban him. 

 

28 degrees now. 

 

 

I deleted it... thinking it was not about PNW sports.   

 

But Broncos won!   Somebody finally beat those frickin Patriots.   They had not lost since beating us in the Super Bowl.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I deleted it... thinking it was not about PNW sports.   

 

But Broncos won!   Somebody finally beat those frickin Patriots.   They had not lost since beating us in the Super Bowl.

 

Very sad evening. I hope my friend Tom will be okay. 

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe a teacher could chime in. Seems pretty simple to me. For instance, matter if the high is 49.5 or 50.4, it still goes down as good ol' 50 degrees.

Seems strange to me that they round to the nearest whole number for the daily reading, but when it comes to the monthly average you jump back to decimals.  I guess that is the way it has been done forever, and I haven't taken math in a long time, but this seems technically incorrect to me. 

[ShawniganLake]

Very sad evening. I hope my friend Tom will be okay. 

Tom will be fine, but he is running out of people to throw the ball to. 

[Phil]

No perfect season for the Pats. :/

Maybe there's hope for humanity after all.

[Deweydog]

Seems strange to me that they round to the nearest whole number for the daily reading, but when it comes to the monthly average you jump back to decimals. I guess that is the way it has been done forever, and I haven't taken math in a long time, but this seems technically incorrect to me.

They're two different things.

 

I'm not saying it's the best way to tell our climate story but it's the way they've done it forever and it's mathematically sound. To change now would only cloud the waters, even if it might make some novices sleep better at night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks pretty stormy for my flight into Kansas City. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif

[Phil]

The PV takes a few punches on the 00z GFS during week two.

 

Ah, if only.

[TT-SEA]

And now the WRF is showing low 60s on Thursday like the 12Z ECMWF,    

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/xwa_tsfc.93.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.DUdFNXSVKJ.png

[Bryant]

*le sigh*

 

There isn't anything wrong with arguing intermittently over the qualifications of someone's post. If someone feels like they're being attacked or harassed, and it isn't blatenly personal, then they can report it. If people don't like the tone of another poster, then exercise the forum feature of putting someone on ignore.

 

We don't offer "safe spaces" or "tone police" other posters just for their views, or if they happen to be overly attached to cold weather, or Canadian modeling.

 

Since my PM was ignored...

 

When the "tone" is the same year after year with the same poster, but yet you tell users to just put him on ignore without actively solving the problem yourself, well, that speaks for itself. 

[TT-SEA]

I am not saying it will reach 60 in places on Thursday.   The models are saying it.    I am just highlighting something interesting that the ECMWF and now the GFS/WRF are both showing.   

 

Comes down to timing as well since the ULL offshore has to be in exact right place at the right time.   If it comes in a couple hours faster or slower it will not maximize the potential warming.   

 

But the models show it happening right now.   

[TT-SEA]

Since my PM was ignored...

 

When the "tone" is the same year after year with the same poster, but yet you tell users to just put him on ignore without actively solving the problem yourself, well, that speaks for itself. 

 

 

Your over-protection of Jim might be the worst part of it now.  Jim can handle being challenged.   We should all accept and even welcome being challenged if you are adding to the discussion here.    Nobody is even talking to you and yet you are the one complaining.    Very strange.   

 

Read back through all of the posts today... its a pretty good discussion.   Nothing personal at all.   Active and animated at times and people challenging others all day long.    

[Front Ranger]

Jet extension is just maxing a bit farther west this go around. That doesn't make the pattern any less zonal, in terms of streamflow.

 

True. But if it maxes far enough west, then the whole zonal thing has less effect on the lower 48.

[Front Ranger]

I am not saying it will reach 60 in places on Thursday.   The models are saying it.    I am just highlighting something interesting that the ECMWF and now the GFS/WRF are both showing.   

 

Comes down to timing as well since the ULL offshore has to be in exact right place at the right time.   If it comes in a couple hours faster or slower it will not maximize the potential warming.   

 

But the models show it happening right now.   

 

At least it won't ruin everyone's cool November, if this dreaded 60 degree day does in fact occur.

[TT-SEA]

At least it won't ruin everyone's cool November, if this dreaded 60 degree day does in fact occur.

 

 

Very true.    That is a lock!

[Deweydog]

23 fake degrees out there.

[stuffradio]

It's like 26 fake degrees here.

[TT-SEA]

Warmer here in the last couple hours as an east wind has surfaced now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

An east wind only surfaced here once that I can recall. It was 12/6/13 as the arctic low drifted south. My temp bumped up to 27 with the mixed airmass and the dry air kept my precip rates low limiting accumulation to only about 1.5". 

[TT-SEA]

An east wind only surfaced here once that I can recall. It was 12/6/13 as the arctic low drifted south. My temp bumped up to 27 with the mixed airmass and the dry air kept my precip rates low limiting accumulation to only about 1.5". 

 

 

Amazing difference in our locations.   An east wind is a welcome trademark of the cold season here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Amazing difference in our locations.   An east wind is a welcome trademark of the cold season here.

 

I get a north or northwest wind, but never the east or NE wind because of the topography. That is why even though I may remain above the fog most of the time during the winter, I still do not mix out most of the time when it is sunny. One of the reasons January 2013 was so cold at my location.                                                                                  

[Jesse]

I get a north or northwest wind, but never the east or NE wind because of the topography. That is why even though I may remain above the fog most of the time during the winter, I still do not mix out most of the time when it is sunny. One of the reasons January 2013 was so cold at my location.                                                                                  

 

Sounds like the best of both worlds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With as many Douglas Firs as I have on or surrounding my property I do not mind to much that I am fairly wind sheltered. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like the best of both worlds.

 

Had a 3" snowfall right before the January 2013 cold snap began. I ended with one 27/11 day. \

 

December 2012 and January 2013 were actually pretty nice up here for cold/snow. February and March were a complete snoozefest.

[TT-SEA]

I get a north or northwest wind, but never the east or NE wind because of the topography. That is why even though I may remain above the fog most of the time during the winter, I still do not mix out most of the time when it is sunny. One of the reasons January 2013 was so cold at my location.                                                                                  

 

We almost never have wind from the west or northwest.    The east wind is my favorite aspect of this climate in the cold season for many reasons. 

[snow_wizard]

To say the least Vancouver Island gets totally fire hosed in the 8 to 10 day period on the GFS.  Looks pretty D**n consolidated to me.  Also interesting to note 850s drop to -6 a bit later down the road on the operational and below -5 on many ensemble members.  Many runs have shown this now.

 

I see nothing to indicate Dec will be a 2014 redux.

[snow_wizard]

Had a 3" snowfall right before the January 2013 cold snap began. I ended with one 27/11 day. \

 

December 2012 and January 2013 were actually pretty nice up here for cold/snow. February and March were a complete snoozefest.

 

What was your average that month?  I did ok here compared to many stations in Western WA, but it sounds like you got colder.  Snow cover undoubtedly helped.  That would have been a nice one to score snow before the cold snap.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF is closer with the front on Thursday...  no 60s on that run (at least in WA) as the rain is moving in by the afternoon.

[HighlandExperience]

To say the least Vancouver Island gets totally fire hosed in the 8 to 10 day period on the GFS. Looks pretty D**n consolidated to me. Also interesting to note 850s drop to -6 a bit later down the road on the operational and below -5 on many ensemble members. Many runs have shown this now.

 

I see nothing to indicate Dec will be a 2014 redux.

Getting some lower snow levels will improve my outlook.

[snow_wizard]

25 with thick fog here.  I'm going to miss this cold snap when it's gone.  It's gotten me back on track to some extent.  I got to soak it in putting up Christmas lights today.

[TT-SEA]

Getting some lower snow levels will improve my outlook.

 

 

00Z ECMWF is not going to improve your mood.