SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Looking at the radar that band of precip is just falling to pieces. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The 12z GFS Ensembles have me feeling a little less glum about next month. Let's see where it goes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 PDX and other parts of the metro definitely have a shot at highs in the upper 30s today, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 It hasn't been above 47F here since the 17th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I saw Redmond hit -5 I believe. They must have had a little more clearing.The temp difference just outside of Bend and in town have been fairly large the last couple nights. I've been driving just outside of town in the morning and it will be -3 there and then 5 miles back in town it's 8-9 degrees. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The 12z GFS Ensembles have me feeling a little less glum about next month. Let's see where it goes. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Yeah I think since I'll be leaving town for 2 weeks on the 15th that the goodies on the ensembles are a lock. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The 12z GFS Ensembles have me feeling a little less glum about next month. Let's see where it goes.Yeah I had the same feeling and posted on it earlier also. Looking like some glimmers of hope. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Sleeting in Vancouver now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 What storm is that you have for your avatar? If I'm not mistaken, at first glance, I'd venture to say its the hanukkah eve storm of 2006! Man, that was truly an epic storm. Actually that one is from the August 29th storm of this year. Impressive early season storm! 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 This inversion setup was initiated by a healthy continental influence, which definitely played a role in how cold things got, in my opinion. Similar to Dec 2005 and Jan 2013 in that respect, though both of those started out colder in the upper levels. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Current temps PDX - 36 SLE - 32 EUG - 31 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 This inversion setup was initiated by a healthy continental influence, which definitely played a role in how cold things got, in my opinion. Similar to Dec 2005 and Jan 2013 in that respect, though both of those started out colder in the upper levels.Fringe stuff, man. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Sleeting in Vancouver now. 5 minutes of barely noticeable sleet is the first frozen precip here in over a year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 5 minutes of barely noticeable sleet is the first frozen precip here in over a year.Pretty noticeable here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Fringe stuff, man.I'm going to start posting this in reply every time you post something. My guess is it will make me feel really smart and superior! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I'm going to start posting this in reply every time you post something. My guess is it will make me feel really smart and superior! Do what you gotta do. Maybe someone could inundate you with private messages desperately seeking forecast guidance in this time of protracted warm anomalies. That might give you a misguided sense of superiority if you're particularly impressionable. Let me know if I can help, otherwise just keep checking those models! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Pretty noticeable here. Utter bedlam out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 With calm or light offshore winds I doubt many valley locations get much warmer today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 At hour 240 on both the GFS and ECMWF there are hints of possibilities but nothing tangible... Yes,10 days out -- but there is some pattern of cooler weather with interesting ridge placement trying to establish. I am not even worrying about anything after this but the GFS shows promise if you wanna check it out for yourself: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2015113012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 GFS: ECMWF: Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Do what you gotta do. Maybe someone could inundate you with private messages desperately seeking forecast guidance in this time of protracted warm anomalies. That might give you a misguided sense of superiority if you're particularly impressionable. Let me know if I can help, otherwise just keep checking those models!Sorry if I fed into your already inflated ego. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Cold weather can cause problems I will admit. My power went out yesterday afternoon/evening for quite some time. During that time my pipes frozes. One of them burst. Home from work today trying to pump the lake out of the crawlspace so the plumber can get in there... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 At hour 240 on both the GFS and ECMWF there are hints of possibilities but nothing tangible... Yes,10 days out -- but there is some pattern of cooler weather with interesting ridge placement trying to establish. I am not even worrying about anything after this but the GFS shows promise if you wanna check it out for yourself: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2015113012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 GFS:GFS-240.png ECMWF:ECMWF-240.png SE Ridge as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Sorry if I fed into your already inflated ego. Being opionated and egocentric are two different things. Given the fact you're about as polarized (fun pun!) as they come in our community, you'd think you'd know that. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 SE Ridge as well.Yep... another thing worth watching. This could go to crap quickly but the setup has some promise for us. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 PDX just dropped a degree on the hour. Perhaps they have already reached their high. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Forecast highs of 43 at SLE and EUG may be a tad optimistic. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Already to 44 here. So just down right toasty... Now where are my shorts. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 At hour 240 on both the GFS and ECMWF there are hints of possibilities but nothing tangible... Yes,10 days out -- but there is some pattern of cooler weather with interesting ridge placement trying to establish. I am not even worrying about anything after this but the GFS shows promise if you wanna check it out for yourself: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=T850&runtime=2015113012&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 If you're one to believe that East Asia patterns are reflected in the US later down the road via the wave train, then it's worth mentioning that there's support for the colder anomalies in the west around day 9/10. 7-10 days out from now East Asia advertises a quick moving trough starting in the west which swings through the US, gaining amplitude as it progresses. This equates to a trough over the Central/Eastern US around the 13th of December +/- a few days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The low level cold is pretty impressive here. 33F with a dp of 24F here on the west end of PDX metro (Hillsboro). Hit 19F with dp 17F last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Cold weather can cause problems I will admit. My power went out yesterday afternoon/evening for quite some time. During that time my pipes frozes. One of them burst. Home from work today trying to pump the lake out of the crawlspace so the plumber can get in there...Got to leave a drip in your neck of the woods. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Forecast for Sumas, WA on Dec. 14, per weather channel: Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I probably just jinxed it... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 I probably just jinxed it...Yes you did!! Thanks a lot!!! Get the tar and feathers boys!!! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Forecast for Sumas, WA on Dec. 14, per weather channel: dec14.JPG I totally disagree with this forecast. The chance of precip should be more like 70% and the wind speed will be closer to 6 or 7 mph. I think they could also pinpoint the snow total at this stage... it will be 2.74 inches to be exact. It is only 15 days out. Come on! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 No power for the pump in the well. He needs a generator and pipe insulation.Well don't I feel like a dingus. Never had to deal with it out here. We've only lost power here once in five years last December. If I recall it wasn't very cold, but the generator fired right up! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The Burns Municipal Airport data only goes back to 1980, but their consecutive lows of -15 tied the all-time November low set in 2006. Looks like November 1993 was similar for monthly mean and November 1985 blows this one out of the water from a monthly mean standpoint. Going back to 1980 though this is easily their most impressive continuous stretch of cold in November. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Fringe stuff, man.Good lord... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 Well don't I feel like a dingus. Never had to deal with it out here. We've only lost power here once in five years last December. If I recall it wasn't very cold, but the generator fired right up!Chris is correct. I do need a generator. Could probably get one for the price of a plumber! The power probably goes out 2-3 times a fall/winter. Definitely enough to make a generator worth it. Especially since it can take a while to get it restored. My longest outages were January 2012 with the snowstorm and September 2013 with those early wind storms we had that year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2015 Report Share Posted November 30, 2015 The Burns Municipal Airport data only goes back to 1980, but their consecutive lows of -15 tied the all-time November low set in 2006. Looks like November 1993 was similar for monthly mean and November 1985 blows this one out of the water from a monthly mean standpoint. Going back to 1980 though this is easily their most impressive continuous stretch of cold in November.But it's fake cold, so it doesn't really count. Fake ice fog, fake snow, fake freezing pipes, fake anomalies, etc. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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