Not sure what to think today. The operational models continue to show the Pacific too progressive and yet the ensemble means are actually improved. Interestingly the longer term operational models actually show early February being the best window for major cold while the ensemble means like late January. I think the final shutdown of the Pacific could come on short notice so the operational could vastly improve with little warning at any time. The stratospheric PV is supposed to take a decent hit later in the month so that could help also.

How often do models over do the dry air? Only reason I ask is it's snowing right now and I don't think it was forecasted.

Can't, Internet speeds suck here at my cabin on Stampede Pass