Here's the member view of the 18z GEFS. The dawgs it does have get a bit colder than the best dawgs on the 12z, but there's also more complete flops. Most important 00z runs in the history of the human race tonight.

I love summer... just not humidity. 5 years in Tokyo really traumatized me. PNW summer is incredible, though.

Pretty sure that WAS an analog season fwiw. That one personally donut-holed mby except for the first half of February.

We could even get a surprise mini system or two that’s not modeled well at long range in the next week or two in this pattern so not all this cold is wasted hopefully.

I've seen winters that came thru during the 2nd half. Hoping maybe that this "Nina" can show up and actually put together the cold-n-wet at some point as you say.