Euro looks good so far!

00z GFS was the 2nd best run so far I'd say! Needs a couple tweaks for greatness, but it's not far off. I could be wrong here, but I think the part where this run starts to differ for the worse from the 12z is this stupid low coming off the Sea of Okhotsk on the 15th. The 12z only takes it down to 980mb and keeps its track a bit further to the NW than the 00z. On the 00z, it bombs out to 963mb and takes a track about 100 miles further west while doing so. The stronger low mucks up our block a bit and creates an opening for the energy near Hawaii to destabilize things further. 12z, weaker and further NW: 00z, 20mb stronger and further SE: On the 00z, the stronger/further SE track of this low delays the merger of these ridges, which creates an opening for that Kona low to spin up further north and destabilize our block. 00z, ridges still a little split, energy underneath having an easier time tickling its balls: 12z, block is more well established and wearing a chastity belt, which keeps this cutoff much more in the ballpark of a Kona low we want to see:

Really interesting GFS run. Hopefully we will get to see some fun weather soon!

Looks like some definite code brown situations back there. Especially that truck driver.

Christmas 09 had a blizzard warning. Unforgettable storm. Rain, sleet, and lots of snow and wind.