relatively small sample size for me but its BY FAR the worst I've seen in my 7 winters here. Coldest low has been 23 and I think maybe 2 sub freezing highs IMBY. maybe 3" of snow IMBY. DUD city

Just glad this raging AL pattern is gonna be abating. That’s my least favorite pattern for here.

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Ive had 6 hrs of virga! Does that count? Crazy in southern Iowa there wwa and wsw galore and barely a flake or dusting anywhere.

Yeah don’t get me wrong I love an orgasmic clown range deterministic run. But obviously any particular run at that range has near zero chance at verifying as modeled. When looking at LR ensembles, I look at not just the mean/median 500mb pattern but also if there are any “clusters” of members with similar pattern evolutions. Often times there are 2 or 3 clusters, each representing a different type of pattern progression. How these clusters trend/evolve from run to run is the most predictive method I’ve found in terms of long range forecasting. Once you have that down, the best you can do (IMO) during the winter is track the number of ensemble members that simulate winter precipitation in some form (or in my case during summer, the number that have sub-90°F highs and/or sub-70°F dews..lol). Through pattern recognition and a few other techniques you can highlight certain windows with enhanced probabilities of producing certain outcomes, but that’s about it. It isn’t until inside D7 that I start looking for individual storms/events on the ensemble members (and at least 80% of those potential events end up failing here in some way, very few make it inside D4).