Phil Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 What caused the QBO to go off the rails last spring? Can we predict when it will happen again?The QBO cycle is largely resonant, with larger -QBO amplitudes often preceding a subsequently anomalous +QBO 12-18 months later. Timing is crucial. However, the question regarding 2015-16 was whether weaker solar forcing would (to some degree) negate the thermal winds behind that process, via the mesosphere-stratosphere predecessor. It was a unique experiment. In the end, solar forcing was not enough of a factor to play into the profession this year. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI4076.1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Generalised theory of ENSO and related atmospheric phenomena. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0960148196000158 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Life cycle of the QBO-modulated 11-year solar cycle signals in the Northern Hemispheric winter: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.419/abstract Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 So moderate Nina the best bet in 2016-17? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures: http://www.pas.rochester.edu/%7Edouglass/papers/PLA_Sun_I_in_press.pdf Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 So moderate Nina the best bet in 2016-17?Anything from neutral to strong La Niña is in play. We'll know a lo more by April-June. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 Anything from neutral to strong La Niña is in play. We'll know a lo more by April-June. That makes sense. Low solar seems to really enhance our seasons here... warmer summers and colder winters. More blocking overall. I like the Nina, low solar combination. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 3, 2016 Report Share Posted February 3, 2016 These are good reads as well, the first is a classic by Grey et al (1992) and is truly a foundational study. Neither are paywalled, so read away: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/gray%20et%20al%201992.pdf http://contextearth.com/2015/12/12/biennial-connection-from-qbo-to-enso/ Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted February 4, 2016 Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 thanks for the good reads. hoping for another 2008 in the next few years....low solar + nina. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 4, 2016 Report Share Posted February 4, 2016 CanSIPS showing a cool pool forming by June and by September a full flown la Niña.I think a basin wide event is extremely unlikely, but this model and others have been hinting at a significant cooling trend over the equatorial waters as we head into spring. Also the JAMSTEC. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2016 The subsurface profile has improved a bit over the past week or so. A cold tongue is about to upwell off the coast of South America. Quite a cold pool building under the Central and Western Pacific. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted February 8, 2016 Report Share Posted February 8, 2016 Looks like the ridiculously resilient ridge has returned, at least for this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 A bunch of model updates today have a -PDO and La Nina by July. The CFSv2 is amongst those that do not, but the NMME is one that does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 9, 2016 Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 A cool and wet July would be wonderful. We are so due. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 9, 2016 A cool and wet July would be wonderful. We are so due. Or even cool and dry. Aside from January the change in our summers has been the most dramatic of all in the NW. They used to be far cooler than recent years. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 10, 2016 Report Share Posted February 10, 2016 A cool and wet July would be wonderful. We are so due.That's not what it means. We all know it takes a couple months for the ENSO to effect the ground weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 10, 2016 Report Share Posted February 10, 2016 That's not what it means. We all know it takes a couple months for the ENSO to effect the ground weather. You don't know that. We switched from strong Nino to Nina summer 2010 and we all know how that turned out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just to note, I copied these from another weather forum, and someone else found them from somewhere else. I'm not taking credit for finding this stuff. http://i.imgur.com/SYk0oeC.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/kuGRzfL.png Here's an update to the JAMSTEChttp://i.imgur.com/lt5dAXC.gifhttp://i.imgur.com/vBPbVO6.gif The JAMSTEC is thinking we'll have 2 winters of a La Nina. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I would still like to see the CFS come around. It's an outlier, but it still bugs me. Does anyone know when the ECMWF Nino plumes update? It still shows the January 1 forecast on their official site. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 12, 2016 Report Share Posted February 12, 2016 I would still like to see the CFS come around. It's an outlier, but it still bugs me. Does anyone know when the ECMWF Nino plumes update? It still shows the January 1 forecast on their official site.The CFS was more mostly an outlier of sticking with a +PDO much like the JAMSTEC. Those are the only two models showing we won't flip to -PDO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 The UKMET updated yesterday and progressed decently from the January forecast. All ensemble members are below +1 by late summer with a bit over half below the zero line. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I am thinking neutral next winter. The models did horribly last spring with the ENSO forecast for this winter. Many of them were showing neutral or even a Nina for this winter up until early April. None of it seems to matter in the outlook for next winter. Every fading Nino in a low solar period that I looked at had a cold, snowy period in January (but not much else the rest of the winter). That included years that went to warm neutral, cold neutral, and full blown Nina. It all seemed to come down to a good to even great period the following January. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 We are certainly "Due" in January. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 We are certainly "Due" in January. Due is a huge understatement actually. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nature will probably find a way to screw us next January with our big shot for the winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nature will probably find a way to screw us next January with our big shot for the winter.Great post! Certainly food for thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Great post! Certainly food for thought. I was just going with the theme that January is hopeless. Actually it should be our best chance in years in 2017. I will stand by that regardless of ENSO next year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I was just going with the theme that January is hopeless. Actually it should be our best chance in years in 2017. I will stand by that regardless of ENSO next year. Might be hard to stick to those guns when Jim starts getting really excited about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Might be hard to stick to those guns when Jim starts getting really excited about it. Nah. It might be warranted. It does actually get cold and snowy here sometimes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Might be hard to stick to those guns when Jim starts getting really excited about it. It would really help to know exactly what has caused January to be so awful lately while December has been decent overall. I do think this Nino might have been epic enough to give the atmosphere a good kick in the arse though. Maybe that's what we needed. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 It would really help to know exactly what has caused January to be so awful lately while December has been decent overall. I do think this Nino might have been epic enough to give the atmosphere a good kick in the arse though. Maybe that's what we needed. I hope this pattern gets kicked in the rear soon because I am really getting tired of the drought conditions in CA. This El Nino has not delivered the rains to Socal like strong Ninos usually do for some strange reason and we are getting record heat when we usually receive copious rains. I don't think I have ever experienced a winter in a moderate to strong Nino that has felt so un-El Nino like. I know that El Nino doesn't always guarantee wet weather for Socal, but this heat and dryness that has become a regular occurrence in recent years in February and March is getting downright ridiculous. I am actually rooting for a La Nina for once to develop next season just to see if it changes the precipitation pattern in a positive way for more of the West Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I hope this pattern gets kicked in the rear soon because I am really getting tired of the drought conditions in CA. This El Nino has not delivered the rains to Socal like strong Ninos usually do for some strange reason and we are getting record heat when we usually receive copious rains. I don't think I have ever experienced a winter in a moderate to strong Nino that has felt so un-El Nino like. I know that El Nino doesn't always guarantee wet weather for Socal, but this heat and dryness that has become a regular occurrence in recent years in February and March is getting downright ridiculous. I am actually rooting for a La Nina for once to develop next season just to see if it changes the precipitation pattern in a positive way for more of the West Coast.I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise.Can't get much worse than the last few years, and there have been no La Niñas in the bunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise.Nothing is working for them... might as well hope for something that normally does not work and see if it does the opposite as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 13, 2016 Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nothing is working for them... might as well hope for something that normally does not work and see if it does the opposite as well.Exactly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2016 I don't actually think you want La Nina. It's a worse weather pattern for you precipitation wise. Maybe not given where we are at right now. It's pretty common for So. Cal to be very wet when the NW is in a major Arctic episode. Ninas have been known to deliver both. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted February 15, 2016 Report Share Posted February 15, 2016 Maybe not given where we are at right now. It's pretty common for So. Cal to be very wet when the NW is in a major Arctic episode. Ninas have been known to deliver both. Our last good winter was 2010-11, which was a borderline strong La Nina. 2007-08, also a moderate La Nina, was also fairly good, except the rainy season ended a month early with a bone-dry March. January 2008 brought nearly 8" to Los Angeles in a series of storms that occurred throughout the month if I remember correctly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 The updated ECMWF Nino plumes are quite good. All but about 8 out of 50 are below the zero line by August. The CFS is a complete outlier at this point thank god. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 The BoM of Australia updated today. It has a really strong Nino next month (obviously). It drops the ENSO to weak Nino or strong Neutral by May, and weak Neutral to weak Nina by July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2016 Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 The BoM of Australia updated today. It has a really strong Nino next month (obviously). It drops the ENSO to weak Nino or strong Neutral by May, and weak Neutral to weak Nina by July.Thank goodness. Cannot wait for this Nino to die. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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