March 1st-2nd Plains to Great Lakes Snowstorm

[Money]

lol

[Geos]

Returns showing up on the WI IL boarder. Thinking south might be the way to go.

 

That's the low level jet indicating where it is. 

 

The front is about an hour ahead of schedule. (HRRR)

20s infiltrating the Fox Valley by Money now.

[Madtown]

Temps 47 wind just flipped here

[Geos]

Be back in a bit.

[gosaints]

Be interesting to see how the RAP and HRRR perform after they sucked at their longer ranges last storm.  Both currently still favor southern WI

[Madtown]

Down to 39

[WBadgersW]

Let's go HRRR

[Geos]

Be interesting to see how the RAP and HRRR perform after they sucked at their longer ranges last storm.  Both currently still favor southern WI

 

Yeah - showing advisory level snows here the day before the 2/24 storm.

 

Front is hauling south over an hour ahead of schedule now. Just came from Kenosha with temps dropping and low stratus moving in.

 

12km NAM

 

[ToastedRavs]

Agreed that front is moving faster than predicted. Already through Des Moines area about an hour ago

[hlcater]

My temps are falling, but with no wind im a little cautious to decide whether it's from stratus moving in or from the front.

[Geos]

My temps are falling, but with no wind im a little cautious to decide whether it's from stratus moving in or from the front.

 

Winds are blowing north in your town.

 

Front it here now. 15° difference from here on north to 10 miles now.

 

 

[hlcater]

Imby. It is dead calm. Not even my flag is moving. But I trust the metar station at VTI.

[Madtown]

38atm no wind or light

[Geos]

11 degree drop here in 15 minutes. Sitting at 39

Breezy here.

[jaster220]

Front came through Lansing and rattled this building where I work really good. Lot of noises and creaks and groans n such. Impressive. 18z NAM wants to pull a bunny out of it's hat for SMI. Keep it coming NAM..

[Geos]

You can see the f-gen band getting ready along and just south of US 20 right now.

 

Looks like the newest map from MKX.

 

[Sciascia]

3pm temp check: 51

[Geos]

34° here now. 15 degree drop in 30 minutes.

[Geos]

Noticing the HRRR is riding too far north with the band in SD. RGEM has better placement of it.

 

Band in reality is heading straight for Sioux Falls.

 

 

Lock it in.

 

[Sciascia]

3:40 - 51 degrees

3:47 - 48 degrees

 

Winds are beginning to blow hard-ish here.

[Tony]

Noticing the HRRR is riding too far north with the band in SD. RGEM has better placement of it.

 

Band in reality is heading straight for Sioux Falls.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016022918/rgem_asnow_ncus_15.png

 

Lock it in.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160229/18Z/f048/acckucherasnowmw.png

Come on Geos, you can do better than this. What happened to the double digit amounts from a few days back

[Geos]

3:40 - 51 degrees

3:47 - 48 degrees

 

Winds are beginning to blow hard-ish here.

 

Yeah seems like our section of the front is the breezy portion. 33° here. 

 

@ Tony: The RGEM portion is 10:1 and the GFS doesn't handle these bands as good as the higher resolution models.

 

We could be looking at 15:1 ratio, but probably more like 12-13:1.

 

So do the math however you want with the total moisture.

 

[hlcater]

GFS is really going all out on that second system. 

[Geos]

Snow flurries already being reported in northeastern Cook County. Starting early.

Futurecast showing 4-8" across the northern tier of counties. Around 4" at ORD.

[Geos]

Definitely toss the placement of the HRRR. Showing Sioux Falls getting 0.1" in the next 3 hours, when they are about to experience 1"+ /hour rates.

 

 

[Tom]

@ Jaster/West Jim/Niko's...this storm really amps up across S MI....you guys are going to do really good...

 

Latest...18z GFS...

[Tom]

HRRR picking up on lake bands forming right around MKE around 3:00am (ish)...should pivot south as the SLP tracks through IL/IN...

[Sciascia]

Cheryl Scott just tweeted that O'Hare went from 50 degrees to 36 in just 3 minutes. I'm 3.5 miles straight east of ORD. If true, I can't trust my balcony thermometer that has had me at 46 for the last 45 minutes. Haha

[Tom]

Cheryl Scott just tweeted that O'Hare went from 50 degrees to 36 in just 3 minutes. I'm 3.5 miles straight east of ORD. If true, I can't trust my balcony thermometer that has had me at 46 for the last 45 minutes. Haha

Cheryl...isn't she eye candy or what?!

[Geos]

Cheryl Scott just tweeted that O'Hare went from 50 degrees to 36 in just 3 minutes. I'm 3.5 miles straight east of ORD. If true, I can't trust my balcony thermometer that has had me at 46 for the last 45 minutes. Haha

 

It's in a state of shock. 

 

Down to freezing here.

[Sciascia]

Cheryl...isn't she eye candy or what?!

Well, when it's forever been Jerry Taft, anything's an upgrade.

[BrianJK]

it's above guidance, but im going with 7.2 for Elmhurst.

[gosaints]

Surprised the rap and hrrr arent jucier

[Geos]

RAP came back south some.

 

[Money]

Geos magnet doing work

[hlcater]

RAP QPF

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/rap/20160229/22Z/f18/accqpfconus.png

 

HRRR snowfall.

 

http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160229/2200Z/f014/acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

They look nearly identical with the heavy band placement.

[Geos]

HRRR coming back south now.

[midwest buildit]

Just stop it. Lol. Stop getting me excited about this. Its not going to snow here. Its just gonna flurry for a few hours and then move on.

[Geos]

Just stop it. Lol. Stop getting me excited about this. Its not going to snow here. Its just gonna flurry for a few hours and then move on.

 

Just wait a couple days, things look a lot better for the south and southwest side of the metro.

[Torchtastic]

there's an obvious north trend, just saying.