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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#101
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:49 PM

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Yep, and a gorgeous sunset right on cue.

 

Definitely looks a little surreal. I caught a FedEx DC-10 taking off while I was out on the 4th floor deck, where I took the pic. Pretty cool sight against the smoky sunset.


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#102
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:49 PM

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Smoke was actually too thick in Seattle for much of a sunset... almost like thick high clouds. It just went from gray to dark.


Yeah, can't even smell it here yet which is nice. Not sure about up there.

#103
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 08:58 PM

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Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

 

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.

 

Its bad right now... lots of pissed off family members.   We have never had a bad week... just a couple bad days here and there.   The last two years we had perfect weather the entire week.  

 

A couple family members saying they don't want to waste their limited vacation time if the weather is going to be total crap and might just work next week.

 

I posted the forecast for Couer d'Alene which is where I was trying to convince everyone to meet this year... that just pissed them off more.   :)


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#104
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:00 PM

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Yeah, can't even smell it here yet which is nice. Not sure about up there.

 

Cannot smell it yet... must be too elevated this far south.



#105
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:08 PM

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Its bad right now... lots of pissed off family members.   We have never had a bad week... just a couple bad days here and there.   The last two years we had perfect weather the entire week.  

 

A couple family members saying they don't want to waste their limited vacation time if the weather is going to be total crap and might just work next week.

 

I posted the forecast for Couer d'Alene which is where I was trying to convince everyone to meet this year... that just pissed them off more.   :)

 

Warms the heart.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#106
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:11 PM

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Warms the heart.

 

I sort of understand.  Most of them live close to each other and see each other all the time and thought of being cooped up in a house with 30 people while its raining most of the week sounds unpleasant.   They might also come for a few days so they can see us West Coasters (my wife's sister and family lives in San Diego) and then leave so they can save their PTO.



#107
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:14 PM

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The smoke was visible almost all day today here in Victoria, though it was at least a mile or two above us. A few people said they could smell it but I haven't noticed it yet, just seemed really hazy/windless. We ended up making it up to 82F, probably would have been warmer without the smoke but it was still warmer than yesterday. Tonight has the markings of a warm one, it dropped to 70F a little earlier now it's back up to 72F. 



#108
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:21 PM

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Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.


Convective debris and mesoscale convective setups are pretty impossible to pinpoint accurately at this point.

But with the current look of the models, I'd be pretty surprised if those didn't arise on at least one of those days next week and ruin our little I-Love-The-'90s marathon at a more climatologically precedented date.

#109
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:22 PM

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Convective debris and mesoscale convective setups are pretty impossible to pinpoint accurately at this point.

But with the current look of the models, I'd be pretty surprised if those didn't arise on at least one of those days next week and ruin our little I-Love-The-'90s marathon at a more climatologically precedented date.

 

12Z ECMWF had a couple days below 90 down there early next week.



#110
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:25 PM

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SEA actually reported smoke for a couple hours this evening.



#111
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:28 PM

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12Z ECMWF had a couple days below 90 down there early next week.


This pattern calls for the return of Blizzard's frantic King Euro updates.

#112
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:29 PM

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Impressive, here's how things are modeled for this Thursday:

 

gfs_T850_nwus_9.png

 

 

and one week later with no real cool down in between:

 

gfs_T850_nwus_37.png



#113
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:31 PM

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Smoky sunset at the Old Mill Park at Shawnigan Lake
Attached File  IMG_0842.PNG   582.77KB   0 downloads
Attached File  IMG_0844.PNG   760.49KB   0 downloads
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#114
DareDuck

Posted 01 August 2017 - 09:37 PM

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I don't think so. It's been a few years. Seems most summers here are consistently warm/hot with highs 90-95 with no real triple digits in central Oregon.


What about June 25th?

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#115
wx_statman

Posted 01 August 2017 - 10:09 PM

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What about June 25th?

 

Looks like RDM hit triple digits in 2013, 2014, 2015 (six times), and 6/25/2017. None in 2016.



#116
wx_statman

Posted 02 August 2017 - 01:40 AM

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MFR should finally break through their 109 degree glass ceiling, either today or tomorrow. They haven't seen 110+ since a reading of 111 on 6/22/1992. Since that time, MFR peaked at 109 on:

 

7/21/1994

7/29/2009

7/31/2015

8/19/2016

 

It happened. MFR snuck up to 110 after 5pm today.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa....aw=0&banner=off



#117
wx_statman

Posted 02 August 2017 - 01:43 AM

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Looks like RDM hit triple digits in 2013, 2014, 2015 (six times), and 6/25/2017. None in 2016.

 

BTW, I goofed on this. RDM hit 100 on 7/29/2016. I got lazy and only checked Jun & Aug when I made the post.

 

So, RDM has actually seen triple digits every summer in recent years.


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#118
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 August 2017 - 05:11 AM

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The 6z GFS was just a touch on the warm side thru mid month. Pretty hard to believe that could even be close to being right.

#119
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 06:04 AM

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The 6z GFS was just a touch on the warm side thru mid month. Pretty hard to believe that could even be close to being right.


One can dream.

#120
TT-SEA

Posted 02 August 2017 - 06:14 AM

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BTW, I goofed on this. RDM hit 100 on 7/29/2016. I got lazy and only checked Jun & Aug when I made the post.

 

So, RDM has actually seen triple digits every summer in recent years.

 

I was shocked to see you miss that... I was waiting for your correction.   ;)


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#121
TT-SEA

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:04 AM

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Dewpoints in the upper 50s definitely helps in this case... the highs will be a little muted (along with the smoke) and the fire danger is not a severe.

 

Smoke is noticeable here but the sun is definitely shining brightly.    Not nearly as thick as what I see on the Vancouver BC cams.



#122
Kayla

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:11 AM

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The 6z GFS was just a touch on the warm side thru mid month. Pretty hard to believe that could even be close to being right.

 

06z GFS has to be off its rails. No day cooler than 96º and 6 days above 100+ over the next 10 days at PDX. Would put this month in the record books that's for sure whether or not they beat the all-time high. 


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#123
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:16 AM

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Possible. But man, the 0z GFS shows one persistent pattern. Just a very gradual cooling after the peak Thursday, as the PNW continues to roast for the next 7-10 days and most of the rest of the country east of the Rockies is stuck in a very cool pattern.

Tim's relatives are gonna lose their s**t.


I think you mean everyone east of the Rockies *except Florida* is stuck in a very cool pattern.

Now, if we could just continue this pattern into the winter. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#124
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:16 AM

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06z GFS has to be off its rails. No day cooler than 96º and 6 days above 100+ over the next 10 days at PDX. Would put this month in the record books that's for sure whether or not they beat the all-time high. 

 

Believe it or not, ensemble support isn't terrible. 



#125
Kayla

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:23 AM

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Believe it or not, ensemble support isn't terrible. 

 

The good news is the 00z Euro and EPS are not on board. Still above average through the period but it's a lot more reasonable.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#126
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:35 AM

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The -QBO is now taking over in the tropics down to 50mb, for the first time since 2014 with proper shear stress. Though technically, the tropical tropopause has been trending progressively higher/colder since May, when the QBO30 integral first flipped negative/easterly.

20C47E21-1DFC-4F16-990A-D0496BA540EF_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#127
Timmy

Posted 02 August 2017 - 07:51 AM

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The -QBO is now taking over in the tropics down to 50mb, for the first time since 2014 with proper shear stress. Though technically, the tropical tropopause has been trending progressively higher/colder since May, when the QBO30 integral first flipped negative/easterly.

20C47E21-1DFC-4F16-990A-D0496BA540EF_zps

you are so smart!
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#128
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:07 AM

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The -QBO is now taking over in the tropics down to 50mb, for the first time since 2014 with proper shear stress. Though technically, the tropical tropopause has been trending progressively higher/colder since May, when the QBO30 integral first flipped negative/easterly.

20C47E21-1DFC-4F16-990A-D0496BA540EF_zps

Nice.

A) Do you expect anyone to understand this?

B ) What does it have to do with our weather?
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#129
Geos

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:11 AM

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Smoke really rolled into after 6pm around here. By 7pm I couldn't see the Cascades whatsoever. 

 

Low went down to 63 here.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 20.96", 04/17

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#130
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:16 AM

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you are so smart!


If I were smart, I would have recognized my strengths and weaknesses, and stuck with my large scale predictions, instead of trying to make a seasonal forecast just for the PNW.

I'm actually happy with my planetary-scale forecast. My trimmed quotes from back in June:

Once into August/September, the system state starts looking a lot like 2014, with the strong WPAC convection/-QBO, which was the theme back in 2014.

I don't see sustained ridging until August, or maybe late July if everything synchronizes perfectly/early. Big western ridges occur under a certain set of boundary conditions, most of which are not present yet but should be present within two months or perhaps a bit less. When the next MJO moves out of the IO/EHEM, the warm IPWP/WPAC area will be very enabling for convection. Could very well be enough to force some degree of low frequency coupling.


This would fit with the idea of an (almost) inverse low frequency pattern progression compared to 2016, with most of the troughing focused during the early and middle summer, and more ridging developing towards the end. Though, the progression of the background state is weaker this summer compared to 2016, so we might see a highly variable mid-latitude circulation and a dormant ENSO.

An August heatwave is also starting to look more likely now, in my opinion, though it's still questionable whether it persists into/through the autumn, or merely passes with the intraseasonal forcing. The warming dateline/WPAC waters don't bode well for a cool autumn, though.


Like last summer, when I try to forecast beyond my area of expertise, I tend to make mistakes.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#131
hawkstwelve

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:24 AM

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I don't remember the last time I saw just "Smoke" for the daily forecast from NWS.

 

 

Attached Files



#132
Front Ranger

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:31 AM

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I don't remember the last time I saw just "Smoke" for the daily forecast from NWS.

 

NWS Portland going with the less ominous sounding "haze".

 

Attached File  Screenshot_5.png   56.14KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#133
Front Ranger

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:36 AM

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SEA may have set the record for warmest August low this morning. Record is 68 from 1981, and lowest ob this AM was 69.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#134
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:39 AM

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Nice.

A) Do you expect anyone to understand this?

B ) What does it have to do with our weather?


On the large scale, the -QBO is associated with more vigorous and equatorward convection with the cooler/raised equatorial tropopause (an overall reduction in tropical static stability).

Given SSTAs and solar forcing, this favors enhanced WPAC forcing as we move into the autumn, which is actually fairly reminiscent of 2014, 1985, 1981*, 1976, 1960, etc (solar starts to matter more by November and beyond). So, the circulation might follow a +WPO/west-shifted +PNA in S/O/N, which is actually the classic -QBO wavetrain.

This is assuming we continue the +IOD/+IOWP/dormant ENSO regime and avoid geomagnetic storms. If we somehow flip into a more -ENSO/Indo forcing state, the picture changes significantly in October/November.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#135
Kayla

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:43 AM

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12z GFS ups the ante to 100+ on 7 of the next 10 days at PDX.  :blink:

 

Does anyone know what the record number of 100+ days is for PDX in a season? Isn't it only like 5-6 days?


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 216.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#136
Geos

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:52 AM

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On the large scale, the -QBO is associated with more vigorous and equatorward convection with the cooler/raised equatorial tropopause (an overall reduction in tropical static stability).

Given SSTAs and solar forcing, this favors enhanced WPAC forcing as we move into the autumn, which is actually fairly reminiscent of 2014, 1985, 1981*, 1976, 1960, etc (solar starts to matter more by November and beyond). So, the circulation might follow a +WPO/west-shifted +PNA in S/O/N, which is actually the classic -QBO wavetrain.

This is assuming we continue the +IOD/+IOWP/dormant ENSO regime and avoid geomagnetic storms. If we somehow flip into a more -ENSO/Indo forcing state, the picture changes significantly in October/November.

 

So in the case of a +WPO/west shifted +PNA that would mean a trough in the West. Maps show that the west is cool in about every month with that type of pattern.

http://madusweather....ion/wpo_pos.php


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 20.96", 04/17

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#137
James Jones

Posted 02 August 2017 - 08:59 AM

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12z GFS ups the ante to 100+ on 7 of the next 10 days at PDX.  :blink:

 

Does anyone know what the record number of 100+ days is for PDX in a season? Isn't it only like 5-6 days?

 

Pretty sure it's 5 in 1941 and 1977. Might be missing another year in there.

 

Looking at the 12z reminds me of the 2010 Russian heatwave. That thing blew the doors off of any previous heatwave on record, and if the 12z verified August would be well on its way to do the same with any previous record warm month around here, though odds are strongly against it.


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#138
TT-SEA

Posted 02 August 2017 - 09:15 AM

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Smoke is drifting more to the west off Vancouver Island compared to yesterday when it was moving more to the SSW.  



#139
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 09:39 AM

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So in the case of a +WPO/west shifted +PNA that would mean a trough in the West. Maps show that the west is cool in about every month with that type of pattern.
http://madusweather....ion/wpo_pos.php


It depends, but those maps are missing a ton of years/dates.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

Live streaming weather webcam:


#140
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 09:40 AM

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12z Canadian looks to generally agree with the GFS.

#141
DareDuck

Posted 02 August 2017 - 09:44 AM

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BTW, I goofed on this. RDM hit 100 on 7/29/2016. I got lazy and only checked Jun & Aug when I made the post.

So, RDM has actually seen triple digits every summer in recent years.

Ah very interesting. This my 3rd summer here and they've all been pretty warm. I wonder how unusual reaching 100 5 straight summers is for RDM.

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 


#142
TT-SEA

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:11 AM

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81 at SEA at 11 a.m. despite the smoke/haze.



#143
Front Ranger

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:13 AM

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BLI reporting just 3 mi visibility with smoke.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#144
Deweydog

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:17 AM

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97 at Larch.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#145
Timmy

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:18 AM

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scappoose is running +6 from yesterday. 90 at 11:05



#146
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:27 AM

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BLI reporting just 3 mi visibility with smoke.

looks like the Fraser valley is in the 2.5 to 3mi range as well.

You can definitely smell it here today.

#147
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:29 AM

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I wonder if there have been other periods in the last several hundred years where our area experienced hot summers/long duration heatwaves with the frequency we have been seeing over the last decade +.

Seems like you might have some good info on this sort of thing, Dmitri, regarding the tree ring studies and whatnot. I would assume perhaps the medieval warm period saw similar spells?

#148
Eujunga

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:36 AM

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Pretty murky here in Eugene, which is what, 500 miles south of where the fires are?

 

170802_Park_001.jpg


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#149
Phil

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:47 AM

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I wonder if there have been other periods in the last several hundred years where our area experienced hot summers/long duration heatwaves with the frequency we have been seeing over the last decade +.

Seems like you might have some good info on this sort of thing, Dmitri, regarding the tree ring studies and whatnot. I would assume perhaps the medieval warm period saw similar spells?


I'm not Demitri, but it's well known that the four corners high was amplified (during boreal summer) from ~ 900AD to ~ 1300AD, which lead to frequent megadroughts and heatwaves across the western US.

From Cook et al 2010:

C17EAD35-55F1-466B-A0A9-B1D9F2F06504_zps
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Cold season 2017/18:
Total Snowfall: 10.1”
Largest Snowfall: 3.4”
Number of winter events: 14
Coldest High: 17.2*F
Coldest Low: 2.8*F
Lowest Dewpoint: -6.7*F
Highest Sustained Wind: 44mph
Highest wind gust: 71mph

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#150
Jesse

Posted 02 August 2017 - 10:50 AM

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Pretty murky here in Eugene, which is what, 500 miles south of where the fires are?

 

170802_Park_001.jpg

 

You must be in the hills south of town judging by this picture. Pretty area.