February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

No snow chances over 384 hours on GFS.

 

Our record earliest last measurable snow is February 5. Our record latest is May 3. It is not out of reason to wonder if we may have gotten our last measurable snow this Winter. I get it, March exists and SSW and yada yada yada. But don't be surprised.

[Niko]

I'm a fan of the "less scientific value" of this kind of map, and I like to look at all the neat colors and comparison of various regions. But, as said before, these often come up a bit shy of reality. Once again my complaint in that regards is confirmed when I look at SEMI which they show only the more northern area of the Detroit metro region above the 4 foot mark. In reality, DTW is well above that mark. This from the guy who does the official measuring for Detroit: 

 

Thru Feb 11th, Detroit was sitting at 3rd snowiest winter on record to that point.

 

The top 5 snowiest seasons THRU FEB 11

1.) 70.8" - 2013-14

2.) 56.9" - 1977-78

3.) 52.5" - 2017-18

4.) 51.4" - 1974-75

5.) 50.4" - 1929-30

 

I find it fascinating that they are basically neck-n-neck with 74-75 which I liked as an analog going into this season. That was an exciting analog to me personally as KFNT close to my home town had their snowiest winter that season (later topped by 13-14). KFNT iirc is currently beating Marshall and not far behind Battle Creek with 65" (and change).

It has been a sweet Winter here in Detroit (especially the burbs). I think my snowfall thus far this season is in the mid to upper 50s range. A little more than the city itself. No complaints!

[Niko]

On item to keep an eye on is a mid March system always "Be ware of the Ides of March"

March can be a sneaky month, no doubt at all. Also, lots of negatives aspects to go w it, such as longer daylight hours, higher sun angle and etc. But yes, March can be an extreme month.

[Niko]

Its cloudy currently and colder w temps in the upper 20s. Still snow around, but not for long.

[Stacsh]

I could be wrong, but every model run seems to be trending warmer and warmer for the midwest/lower great lakes to end out February.    

[Minny_Weather]

I could be wrong, but every model run seems to be trending warmer and warmer for the midwest/lower great lakes to end out February.    

You are not wrong. Looks really seasonable here as we go into met Spring.

[Tom]

I could be wrong, but every model run seems to be trending warmer and warmer for the midwest/lower great lakes to end out February.

Indeed, EPS won that battle without a doubt and it looks warmer than avg to close out the month. Watch, March ends up being wasted BN temps with abysmal weather.

[Minny_Weather]

The middle of March is when climo begins to favor rain (or red flag warnings) over snow here. Looking at models, I REALLY wouldn't be surprised if we see no more measurable snow beyond a couple of late slushfests for the rest of the Winter.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, not much cold in the 15-day EPS for Cedar Rapids.  The EPS, early in the month, wrongly predicted a big warmup around Feb 10th, but this time there won't be a widespread, deep snow pack to keep us cold.

 

[Tom]

The middle of March is when climo begins to favor rain (or red flag warnings) over snow here. Looking at models, I REALLY wouldn't be surprised if we see no more measurable snow beyond a couple of late slushfests for the rest of the Winter.

I’d be more inclined to believe the Plains will score a few big storms before winter is done. Pattern looks ripe for cutters and the placement of the cold seems to be in NE posters backbyard.

[Tabitha]

I’d be more inclined to believe the Plains will score a few big storms before winter is done. Pattern looks ripe for cutters and the placement of the cold seems to be in NE posters backbyard.

 

The worst of patterns can always turn good w/o warning; and the best of patterns can often turn bad in the same fashion.

 

In the East; it was thought winter was over; and now, a couple of days later...a winter storm brews.

[CentralNebWeather]

Joe Bastardi video today says winter not over by a long shot. Sees a very active March. Interesting. Let’s see how it goes.

[Minny_Weather]

Joe Bastardi video today says winter not over by a long shot. Sees a very active March. Interesting. Let’s see how it goes.

What does he see that isn't active for the Eastern 2/3rds?

[Tabitha]

I went to the website for the United Kingdom Meteorology...the main weather office in Britain...in an effort to obtain free UKMET maps...since that other site now wants the people to pay to see them.

 

After thoroughly searching the site; I could find no mention of the main model designed by that nation.

 

Does this not represent the grandest of incongruities?

 

It is the same as when I call a "customer service" hotline...they have absolutely everything...except what you need.

[Tabitha]

I must concede I find it rather vulgar that anyone would seek to "charge a fee" so that one might be afforded the right to gaze at a weather map.

 

I am cognizant of the fact that the models were not created out of whole cloth...or at no expense...but I am still of the opinion that knowing the weather...which is so very influential in Everyone's daily life...is very close to a Natural Right...on par with breathing...and thus any information about it should be within the Sphere of the Public Domain.

 

Obviously an individual meteorologist has the right to charge a fee for any counsel he might dispense; but the maps are for everyone...or should be.

[Hawkeye]

I was shocked to bring up the Euro's 10-day temp forecast for Cedar Rapids and see next Monday's high temp of 67!!!  Of course, there is very little ensemble support for that kind of warmth.  The ensemble mean high for Monday is only 37.

 

Since that post four days ago, the euro ensemble members have trended strongly in favor of a warm Monday, now with a mean of 60.  Even the coldest member is 52.  Sunday is looking like 50 now, too.

 

The op GFS continues to be quicker with the frontal passage, so it only has a high of 47 Monday.  DMX was leaning toward the slower solution.

[Tom]

Since that post four days ago, the euro ensemble members have trended strongly in favor of a warm Monday, now with a mean of 60, with the coldest member at 52. Even Sunday is looking like 50 now.

It’s going to feel tropical next week. Bring out the swimming shorts!

[Tom]

Hey Chicago, we set another record...a record I would rather not add to the list...

 

 

 

 

More

Over the past 2 days, #Chicago's official snow depth dropped 10 inches! This is the largest 2 day snow melt in recorded Chicago weather history! Previous record was 9" melt Dec 29-31, 1951 & Feb 22-24, 1936. #SnowMelt #ILWX

 

[BrianJK]

 

Hey Chicago, we set another record...a record I would rather not add to the list...

 

 

 

 

More

 

Over the past 2 days, #Chicago's official snow depth dropped 10 inches! This is the largest 2 day snow melt in recorded Chicago weather history! Previous record was 9" melt Dec 29-31, 1951 & Feb 22-24, 1936. #SnowMelt #ILWX

I recall the GHD blizzard snow was gone rather quickly. Any way to look up how long we had snow on the ground following that event?

[gimmesnow]

GFS bumped rain totals up for SE Wisconsin, and so have all the extended forecasts. We got a really lousy rainer like this last year, screwed up the hill so badly they lost the entire top of the hill. Alpine Valley was awesome enough to blow more snow and fix it after they lost the entire top of the hill's base. After President's Day, they don't really have any major days, and it costs a lot of money to make snow.

 

I guess the silver lining is the last rain we got turned most of the base into ice, and that'll melt a lot more slowly than the light, fluffy powder we got that fell from nature.

 

I am always so bummed out when we get rain this early. If this was a month later I'd be so happy to see the rain. I can't believe we're getting hit again. At this point, I'd be really happy if that ice storm shifted 100 miles south, at least that won't destroy my base. It'll suck to ride on, but it'll help them make it to mid-March.

[Tabitha]

DFN of -14.2 F at Rapid City through the first 14 days of February.

 

Mean temp was 11.9 F for that same interval.

 

Definitely one of the coldest February's on record so far.

 

Extreme minimum for the month (so far) was -16 F.

 

(Had accidentally placed this is the storm thread; rather than the obs. thread where it belongs). 

 

I don't know about the snow; but looking at the last 12 days of the month temperature wise; barring a miracle; this is going to end up being the Coldest February Ever around here.

[Tom]

I recall the GHD blizzard snow was gone rather quickly. Any way to look up how long we had snow on the ground following that event?

I remember there was a big melt off after the arctic outbreak a week later.  Based off of snow depth maps I just saw, the snow began melting around the 10th and rapidly melted off by the 17th with only a couple inches OTG and by the 18th it was gone.

 

Feb 3rd...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/thumbnails/Midwest/nsm_depth/201102/nsm_depth_2011020305_Midwest_thumb.jpg

 

 

Feb 10th...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/thumbnails/Midwest/nsm_depth/201102/nsm_depth_2011021005_Midwest_thumb.jpg

 

 

Feb 17th...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/thumbnails/Midwest/nsm_depth/201102/nsm_depth_2011021705_Midwest_thumb.jpg

 

Feb 18th...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/thumbnails/Midwest/nsm_depth/201102/nsm_depth_2011021805_Midwest_thumb.jpg

[Tom]

I'm trying to find where I read that the -PNA is going to hit or has hit a record negative sigma for February...Record SE Ridge will, without a doubt, set record highs on the EC.  The 00z Euro keeps pumping temps in the 70's up/down the EC later next week.

 

[bud2380]

The last several runs of the HRRR are now showing an inch of snow for my area today. Radar trends seem to support it as well.

[Tom]

Pretty big signal continues to be advertised per GEFS and also via the EPS that late season snows will amp up as we head into March across the north.  Some recent model runs keep a storm track close enough around here but I'm favoring those farther NW of Chicago.

[Tabitha]

Pretty big signal continues to be advertised per GEFS and also via the EPS that late season snows will amp up as we head into March across the north.  Some recent model runs keep a storm track close enough around here but I'm favoring those farther NW of Chicago.

 

 

I am sensing that there is going to be a very, very large snowstorm around here (western SD) around Day 14 / March 3.

 

We'll pull the post in 2 weeks to see if I was Right or Wrong.

 

There is not too much meteorology in this particular prediction of mine; just an innate sense.

[Niko]

Winterstorm Warning for NYC for 4-7". Not sure what they are having as snowfall thus far this Winter season...(have no time to search) but, I think if they get that amount, they will be somewhere between 23-28" for the season. That should bring them to near average snowfall. Whatever falls, melts in 1 or 2 days. Very mild air grips everyone. Hello Spring! I have no interest in these kinds of snowstorms, unless, they stay on the ground for a few days.

[Niko]

Looking forward to some mild air next week. Bring it!

[Tabitha]

Winterstorm Warning for NYC for 4-7". Not sure what they are having as snowfall thus far this Winter season...(have no time to search) but, I think if they get that amount, they will be somewhere between 23-28" for the season. That should bring them to near average snowfall. Whatever falls, melts in 1 or 2 days. Very mild air grips everyone. Hello Spring! I have no interest in these kinds of snowstorms, unless, they stay on the ground for a few days.

 

NYC Central Park has 19.4" on the season; the NYC WFO @ Upton which is about 60 miles to the east out on central Long Island has 28.7" on the season.

 

The NYC mean is about 28"; the mean at the Upton Weather Office is about 32.5".

 

Much of the difference can be explained by the fact that the latter is out in the countryside; whilst the former is in the midst of the UHI.

[Hawkeye]

A band of snow with some moderate to heavy bursts is moving through Iowa this morning.  It just began to snow lightly here.

[bud2380]

Not snowing here yet but based on radar it shouldn’t be much longer especially since it’s snowing in CR

[bud2380]

Extremely light snow here. Not even sure it could be classified as a flurry it’s so light.

[Hawkeye]

The snow has really picked up, here... decent size flakes.

[Tabitha]

Everyone gets the Good Storms but me...

[Hawkeye]

Everyone gets the Good Storms but me...

 

Our snow will be gone in a couple days as the warmth and rain moves in, just as the snow starts piling up out in your area.

[Tabitha]

Our snow will be gone in a couple days as the warmth and rain moves in, just as the snow starts piling up out in your area.

 

To the Circle of Life!

 

What happened to Alan Alda????????????????

 

Not quite sure I recognize the young version of the guy from Grant Wood's American Gothic  who supplanted him...

[Hawkeye]

Small, dut decent flakes are now pouring down hard.  Visibility is down to 1/4 mile.

 

To the Circle of Life!

 

What happened to Alan Alda????????????????

 

Not quite sure I recognize the young version of the guy from Grant Wood's American Gothic  who supplanted him...

 

The new photo is from the Chief Surgeon episode.  M*A*S*H is my all-time favorite tv show.  I've seen all 250+ episodes 10, 20, or even 30 times.  It never gets old.  I still watch almost every day because it's on several tv channels.

[bud2380]

Snowing really good here now. Roads are getting slick

[bud2380]

Small, dut decent flakes are now pouring down hard.  Visibility is down to 1/4 mile.

 

 

 

The new photo is from the Chief Surgeon episode.  M*A*S*H is my all-time favorite tv show.  I've seen all 250+ episodes 10, 20, or even 30 times.  It never gets old.  I still watch almost every day because it's on several tv channels.

Sounds like me and the Simpsons. Although I haven’t watched all 600 episodes I’ve seen seasons 1-12 or so about a hundred times

[Hawkeye]

I just measured 0.8" and the heaviest snow is about to move in.