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February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

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#1
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:14 AM

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Models have been showing a strong clipper for days now, and are starting to come into agreement on placement.  Here is last night's Euro.  

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_144.png   159.03KB   1 downloads

Attached File  ecmwf_6h_precip_iowa_96.png   121.24KB   0 downloads


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#2
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:15 AM

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Here is the GFS from 06z

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#3
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:45 AM

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Thanks for starting the thread for the Mon/Tue wave Bud!  


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#4
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:58 AM

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GFS  Further N.



#5
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 07:59 AM

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12z GFS...



#6
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:02 AM

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12z GFS...

that is 00Z



#7
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:05 AM

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that is 00Z

Sorry Grizz, your right...my head is still not 100%



#8
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:06 AM

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No prob, that's why we work as a team!!

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#9
GDR

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:08 AM

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Thanks for starting a thread! NOT!!!
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#10
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:09 AM

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Closer view of the GFS

 

snku_024h.us_mw.png



#11
Tony

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:09 AM

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No prob, that's why we work as a team!!

Is this for wave #3, 4 or 5....so many waves so getting confused on which one this is?



#12
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Is this for wave #3, 4 or 5....so many waves so getting confused on which one this is?

 

24 hour totals ending morning on Tuesday. My guess for you is it is wave #3 .



#13
Tony

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:13 AM

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24 hour totals ending morning on Tuesday. My guess for you is it is wave #3 .

Gotcha...thanks.



#14
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:15 AM

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This first initial wave on Mon/Tue seems to be associated with the main SLP that comes up from the TX Panhandle later Tue and tracks NE towards the S MW/OV by Wed.  Shall we edit this title to include both??  Prob will keep things cleaner.


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#15
Clinton

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:18 AM

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This first initial wave on Mon/Tue seems to be associated with the main SLP that comes up from the TX Panhandle later Tue and tracks NE towards the S MW/OV by Wed.  Shall we edit this title to include both??  Prob will keep things cleaner.

Yes please!



#16
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:20 AM

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Canadian

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png



#17
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:26 AM

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Canadian

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png

Hey Bud, do you mind if we edit the title to include both systems???



#18
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Sure, whatever you want to call it is fine.  


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#19
Niko

Posted 02 February 2018 - 08:47 AM

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This could be a doozy of a storm.



#20
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:05 AM

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This could be a doozy of a storm.

 

Well, it's nice to see the GooFuS leaning towards the 0z Euro Cntrl that was posted by Grizz earlier. Take that track due east and we'll be white gold  ;)


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#21
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:11 AM

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CPC has mby literally riding the line for the good stuff as of last evening's dart toss. EDIT: I think they bump north with today's map

 

Attached File  20180201_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png   445.06KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#22
Niko

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:20 AM

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CPC has mby literally riding the line for the good stuff as of last evening's dart toss. EDIT: I think they bump north with today's map

 

attachicon.gif20180201_CPC_hazards_d3_7.png

In the Heavy snow circle for MBY, as this thing has abundant GOM moisture to work w. Man, its going to get very white here.


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#23
Hawkeye

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:31 AM

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12z UK is more amped with the southern system, even brings a couple inches north into the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#24
james1976

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:38 AM

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Dang....6-8 for me on that run😮
Still a few days away

#25
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:41 AM

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GFS has another strong system next Friday or so as well.  


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#26
Hawkeye

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:48 AM

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GFS has another strong system next Friday or so as well.  

 

The UK has some decent energy dipping into the pacnw in six days, as well.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#27
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:52 AM

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Wednesday, they're edging us closer to the 50/50 line..

 

Attached File  20180202 8z d5 WPC LE 2.5 in snowfall risk.PNG   840.16KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#28
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:52 AM

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12z GEFS have trended NW in the previous 4 runs and more noteably more members are tracking the secondary stronger wave on Tue near the TX Panhandle up through C MO/C IL....

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_16.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

 

24-hour qpf trends over the previous 4 runs are looking better...

 

 

 


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#29
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 02 February 2018 - 09:52 AM

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I'm actually decently confident we make up some significant ground on our ~12" deficit. I dont think we will make up all of it, but most models are pretty consistent of having 6+ here from multiple systems over the coming week. Although I don't wanna be too confident as last minute shifts seem to be a recurring theme this season. Of course, the one on Monday seems to be the biggest out of them all and that's the one I really want. The one tomorrow night looks like a 0-2 incher.

2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#30
Niko

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:01 AM

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12z UK is more amped with the southern system, even brings a couple inches north into the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City area.

Looks like you are in for some snow w this storm.



#31
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:22 AM

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Euro looks like about .3" qpf for much of E Iowa and into Illinois for the Monday evening system.  



#32
Tony

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:23 AM

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12z mean is north of operational again

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#33
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:24 AM

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Euro very solid for the sound 2/3's of NE for Tuesday with the next wave by hour 102.  Widespread qpf of around 1/4" so far.  



#34
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:25 AM

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Euro looks a lot like the UK with the Tuesday storm.  Starting to look promising.  Hits southern IA good and is even getting snow up towards Cedar Rapids.  



#35
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:28 AM

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Euro even has snow for E.NE on Tuesday. 



#36
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:31 AM

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Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png   171.17KB   0 downloads


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#37
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:35 AM

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Grizz are you able to get text output off the Euro? If so, if you don't mind posting  IOW and CID I'd appreciate it.  Thanks.  



#38
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:42 AM

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Grizz are you able to get text output off the Euro? If so, if you don't mind posting  IOW and CID I'd appreciate it.  Thanks.  

 I did earlier and that is how I found out where the snow is because the ACC-WX maps take forever even in rapid mode. 

 

IOW- (corrected)

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -7.2   -11.0    1017      61      78    0.01     538     525   
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -7.9   -17.5    1025      41      79    0.00     534     514   
MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.4   -17.1    1029      26       7    0.00     537     515   
MON 06Z 05-FEB -12.8   -13.5    1030      33       4    0.00     542     519   
MON 12Z 05-FEB -13.4   -11.5    1026      33       2    0.00     547     527   
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.3   -10.6    1024      47     100    0.07     548     529   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.9   -12.3    1022      71      92    0.15     548     531   
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.0    -9.9    1025      82      36    0.00     550     531   
TUE 12Z 06-FEB -14.2    -9.2    1028      80      38    0.00     551     530   
TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.6   -10.0    1028      74      97    0.03     551     530   
WED 00Z 07-FEB  -7.8    -9.9    1025      82      99    0.14     549     530   
WED 06Z 07-FEB  -9.7   -11.5    1027      81      97    0.14     546     525   
WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.0   -12.0    1030      74      80    0.01     544     521

 

​CID

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -8.4   -12.2    1018      61      77    0.01     538     524   
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -9.0   -18.0    1026      41      78    0.01     532     512   
MON 00Z 05-FEB -11.2   -17.5    1029      28       7    0.00     536     514   
MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.0   -13.5    1030      36       4    0.00     541     519   
MON 12Z 05-FEB -14.1   -11.8    1026      35       3    0.00     546     526   
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.8   -10.9    1024      52     100    0.10     547     529   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -9.5   -13.3    1023      75      85    0.14     547     529   
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.7    -9.6    1025      85      33    0.00     549     530   
TUE 12Z 06-FEB -15.4    -9.4    1028      82      37    0.00     550     529   
TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.7   -10.3    1029      74      99    0.03     550     528   
WED 00Z 07-FEB  -8.2   -10.5    1026      80      98    0.09     549     529   
WED 06Z 07-FEB -10.2   -11.9    1028      77      99    0.09     545     524   
WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.5   -12.4    1031      72      76    0.01     543     520

 

   



#39
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Thanks Grizz.  With those 850s so low, ratios could be 15:1.  This could be a fun week.  And only about a 12-18 hour break between systems.  


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#40
gabel23

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

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 I did earlier and that is how I found out where the snow is because the ACC-WX maps take forever even in rapid mode. 

 

IOW- (corrected)

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -7.2   -11.0    1017      61      78    0.01     538     525   
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -7.9   -17.5    1025      41      79    0.00     534     514   
MON 00Z 05-FEB -10.4   -17.1    1029      26       7    0.00     537     515   
MON 06Z 05-FEB -12.8   -13.5    1030      33       4    0.00     542     519   
MON 12Z 05-FEB -13.4   -11.5    1026      33       2    0.00     547     527   
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.3   -10.6    1024      47     100    0.07     548     529   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -8.9   -12.3    1022      71      92    0.15     548     531   
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.0    -9.9    1025      82      36    0.00     550     531   
TUE 12Z 06-FEB -14.2    -9.2    1028      80      38    0.00     551     530   
TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.6   -10.0    1028      74      97    0.03     551     530   
WED 00Z 07-FEB  -7.8    -9.9    1025      82      99    0.14     549     530   
WED 06Z 07-FEB  -9.7   -11.5    1027      81      97    0.14     546     525   
WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.0   -12.0    1030      74      80    0.01     544     521

 

​CID

SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -8.4   -12.2    1018      61      77    0.01     538     524   
SUN 18Z 04-FEB  -9.0   -18.0    1026      41      78    0.01     532     512   
MON 00Z 05-FEB -11.2   -17.5    1029      28       7    0.00     536     514   
MON 06Z 05-FEB -14.0   -13.5    1030      36       4    0.00     541     519   
MON 12Z 05-FEB -14.1   -11.8    1026      35       3    0.00     546     526   
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -9.8   -10.9    1024      52     100    0.10     547     529   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -9.5   -13.3    1023      75      85    0.14     547     529   
TUE 06Z 06-FEB -14.7    -9.6    1025      85      33    0.00     549     530   
TUE 12Z 06-FEB -15.4    -9.4    1028      82      37    0.00     550     529   
TUE 18Z 06-FEB  -8.7   -10.3    1029      74      99    0.03     550     528   
WED 00Z 07-FEB  -8.2   -10.5    1026      80      98    0.09     549     529   
WED 06Z 07-FEB -10.2   -11.9    1028      77      99    0.09     545     524   
WED 12Z 07-FEB -14.5   -12.4    1031      72      76    0.01     543     520

 

   

Can you get OLU for me? Thanks. 



#41
Tom

Posted 02 February 2018 - 10:57 AM

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KC/N MO look golden on the Euro to score their first 6"+ snow in many years...woah, this is a pretty good tick north.  Nice 1"+ blip of qpf just south of Chi with very cold 850's this has potential to be one heckova week!


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#42
indianajohn

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:00 AM

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Skillings FB Page.....
A snowier pattern ahead? It continues to look that way over the coming week--but with some interesting twists on the way, including some possible patchy light rain Saturday afternoon and evening as the Chicago area break above freezing for a day Saturday. Highs may top out in the mid 30s. T
Any liquid-form precip would amount to quite a change from this morning's 5-degree lows at Midway and O'Hare--and the 0-deg min recorded at Rochelle and the 1-deg lows at McHenry, Mundelein and Barrington. Lows bottomed out at +2-deg at Elgin, DeKalb, Joliet, Willowbrook, Dwight and Batavia.
It's always interesting to see the graphics depicting one week cumulative snowfalls pop up on line when snowier patterns loom. Skill levels of such forecasts are low at longer ranges in time--even in this era of quite remarkable numerical modeling of our weather. They make facscinating viewing but should hardly be viewed as carved in stone. We're much better at identifying potential trends in snow frequency and occurrence--then identifying amounts as we move closer to the snow amounts in question.
We continue to monitor the following periods for potential snowfall in the coming week. None of these is yet carved in stone (though the late Saturday night and Sunday snow seems a reasonably good bet--what's a dicey call at this point are the amounts which might occur here)--and the level of uncertainty of precise snow tallies with the more distant systems is not yet clear. The periods being monitored are:
---Late Saturday night into Sunday
---Monday night
--Tuesday night into Wednesday (the track of the system will be critical in how much if any snow occurs in this instance)
--And toward Friday
Included are some graphics identifying trends and offering some insight into the range in model projections of possible accumulations on the Sunday system. When looking at a system like that one, which is still days away, the best approach is to look at the range in current machine accumulation projections. Specific numbers will become cleared as the system is closer to us. One trend that seems to be coming through on the various snowfall forecasts on this system is that amounts are likely to taper off the farther south you move from Chicago. Also true is that this system is hardly a major storm of the time we've been reflecting on looking back 7 years at the Ground Hog's Day storm in early February 2011.

#43
Grizzcoat

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:11 AM

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Can you get OLU for me? Thanks. 

OLU-  then I'am off to bed. Working the "nightshift" with Lionel (Ritchie)

 

 SUN 18Z 04-FEB -10.5   -18.3    1035      35      64    0.02     542     516   
MON 00Z 05-FEB  -9.7   -14.9    1031      35       2    0.00     546     522   
MON 06Z 05-FEB -10.5    -9.5    1027      40      64    0.00     552     531   
MON 12Z 05-FEB  -8.1    -6.0    1018      42      67    0.00     552     538   
MON 18Z 05-FEB  -0.2    -3.2    1014      42      61    0.01     552     540   
TUE 00Z 06-FEB  -2.9    -7.7    1019      60      41    0.00     551     536   
TUE 06Z 06-FEB  -7.6    -8.0    1025      63      49    0.00     552     532   
TUE 12Z 06-FEB  -8.4   -12.1    1027      66      92    0.03     551     530   
TUE 18Z 06-FEB -10.6   -12.6    1030      70      99    0.15     549     526   
WED 00Z 07-FEB -10.3   -12.3    1030      70      98    0.02     547     524


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#44
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:26 AM

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KC/N MO look golden on the Euro to score their first 6"+ snow in many years...woah, this is a pretty good tick north.  Nice 1"+ blip of qpf just south of Chi with very cold 850's this has potential to be one heckova week!

 

Hopefully getting extended a bit up my way. But, I get treated better than most with Sat/Sun so not gonna be greedy..Chitown needs this SOOOO bad! 

 

SMI close-up:

 

Attached File  20180202 12z 120hr Euro 10to1 snowfall SMI.jpg   105.8KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#45
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:39 AM

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I know, I know, It's the NavGem, but I like the moist look. still holds the SLP too long and thus it tracks quite far south..

 

Attached File  navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_20.png   163.29KB   0 downloads


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#46
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:42 AM

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12z mean is north of operational again

 

Some whiffs to my south, but man there's some juiced options in there as well. Nice trends today..thx for posting 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#47
Tony

Posted 02 February 2018 - 11:46 AM

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Some whiffs to my south, but man there's some juiced options in there as well. Nice trends today..thx for posting 

There are some big dogs in that group that are eye popping for sure.


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#48
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2018 - 12:22 PM

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Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

 

Attached File  20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png   107.98KB   14 downloads

 

 


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Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#49
someweatherdude

Posted 02 February 2018 - 01:52 PM

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Another look at the Euro set-up. Just nice to look at since it's been so long

20180202 0z 114hr Euro Surf map.png



#50
someweatherdude

Posted 02 February 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Could you post the map from 6 or 12 hours prior for those of us in the plains?