January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormy]

The wind here is slowly decreasing after howling most of the day. Top gust showed 49 mph with the highest 10 minute average wind speed at 30 mph a few times!

[Hawkeye]

Part of my 6' wood fence blew down today.  This was not expected at all because it's only ten years old.  Three of the 4x4 cedar posts snapped just below the surface.  That seems strange.  The previous fence posts, of the same type, lasted thirty years.

[jaster220]

@ Hawkeye

 

Sorry bout your fence. Not good

 

 

Of the last 6 winters, 2014-15 had the least snowfall to date. As of today my current season snow matches. Going forward then, this will be the new "low sum" winter unless things pick up as talked about. I do have SHSN in the forecast tonight and tomorrow so it's possible I eek out something to keep this winter on life-support.

[jaster220]

Yesterday's storm really performed. An over-achiever for the far eastern UP of Mich. Largest report out of NWS in a locale that originally was under a WWA. Yet another storm that trended stronger towards game-time.

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
953 AM EST TUE JAN 8 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 11 ESE GOETZVILLE 46.00N 83.90W
01/08/2019 M18.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

[Niko]

Temps are trying to get back to normal as readings are turning progressively colder. Winds are also gusty as well creating a wcf out there. Currently at 34F w partly cloudy skies.

[Niko]

High of 64*. Sunny. Just like Spring.

 

Good thing as I learned today I have to replace my heat pump outside.

This is totally not the best 6 months of my life.

 

(The list is too long and depressing)

That must feel awesome.

[Niko]

The wind here is slowly decreasing after howling most of the day. Top gust showed 49 mph with the highest 10 minute average wind speed at 30 mph a few times!

Wow...hold on to those hats

[Stormhunter87]

Wow end run of the fv3 showing a monster storm. Ik it's a ways out but that would be great to see.

[Clinton]

Wow end run of the fv3 showing a monster storm. Ik it's a ways out but that would be great to see.

That is a monster, this forum would explode if that verified.

[westMJim]

While it has turned colder this AM the snow drought continues.  Yes it did indeed snow here last night but it was not much and there is just a trace of snow on the ground and roof tops, the driveway and road are snow free the temperature here at my house is 24.1° 

Who would have thought that on January 9th the total snow fall for the season at Grand Rapids would be just 18.6" with just 4.2" from December 1st to January 8th 

[Niko]

Currently at 27F w a few snowshowers. A dusting is around.

[Tom]

"Alright, alright, alright..."....a little bit of Matthew McConaughey flavor for ya'll this morning...boys and girls, ladies and gents, I'm lovin' what I'm seeing as the models are all starting to agree with the LRC and BSR in terms of storms and the potential for severe cold this month.  First off, I will say, that I'm stoked to see this late week system trending and agreeing with some of the LR ideas I've had on the table this month.  It's going to be really important to lay down the snow pack if your a fan of the cold.  Not only that, but the "zone" of which storms will track over the next 2 weeks is starting to look quite like what we saw in the LRC's cycle #1 through the Plains/MW/Lower GL's. 

 

Based off the latest runs of the EPS/GEFS, there is an impressive signal through the 21st that a large and expansive snow cover shall begin to build smack dab in the heartland. IMO, this region should set up to be the highlight region where the majority of the cold and storms will track over the course of the next 30-60 days as Winter comes back hard, at times quite viciously.

 

The Top 3 Oct/Nov analogs for this season had the cold centered farther east across the OV/E GL's but according to this years LRC pattern, while using those same Oct/Nov analogs, the most extreme part of this cold season will be shifted farther west across our sub forum, favoring the MW region.  Yesterday, I commented on the 10mb heights off the GEFS and anticipated a trend in the models to sniff out the PNA pattern towards a more favorable storm track across our sub.  Low and behold, the Euro op and its ensembles are showing a more neutral PNA by the 18th which is perfect timing for when I expect a large scale system to develop and several more storms to finish off the month.  Jan '78 is looking like a good contender and I'm sticking with it.  Remember snowmagedon in '09/'10???  I imagine we are heading into some very interesting times for Jan '19....

 

 

[Tom]

Some eye candy for you this morning...the next big ticket storm is setting up between the 19th-21st....share the wealth????  It doesn't stop there...according to the LRC and BSR, we should see a deep southern Plains storm coming out of the SW and cut NE but at this time the storm track may eventually shift south between the 26th-28th.  Gear up for some fun storm tracking...

[Stormy]

Part of my 6' wood fence blew down today.  This was not expected at all because it's only ten years old.  Three of the 4x4 cedar posts snapped just below the surface.  That seems strange.  The previous fence posts, of the same type, lasted thirty years.

Not good. The wind ramped up a bit again last evening and howled all night. Should be nearly calm at times tomorrow

[gimmesnow]

Today is a good day, at least. It's cold and there's no wind. Humidity is a little high for snow blowing, but other than that, it's a great day to make snow and Alpine Valley blew all night and plans to blow all day, and I assume all night tonight.

 

When winter gives you lemons, go to a place with snow making.

[Snowshoe]

To give you an idea how unusual this winter is. The town of Minocqua in northern Wisconsin is warning people of unsafe ice. The unsafe lake mentioned is extremely popular for snowmobilers and normally freezes solid for vehicle travel by Christmas. Very unusual to have this problem at all much less into January.

 

https://www.townofminocqua.org/lake-minocqua-remains-unsafe-and-unmarked/

[Madtown]

^ Beginning to think something else is going on there....average ice across the northwoods is 12-14". The turtle flowage has been marked and is safe for snowmobile travel since Christmas. This area has always had thinner ice, but the fact that there is open water is unreal and while it's been warm up there, there should be plenty of ice at this point in spite of that.

[Minny_Weather]

The lake by my place is about 50% melted now. The good news is that it looks like we are done with the unseasonable warmth that we have seen the past week or so. But even slightly above normal readings still yield above freezing highs, and lows in the low to mid 20s. The lake hasn't been skateable at all so far this Winter and I'm wondering if it ever will be. Last year it was skateable all the way from Christmas Eve or so to the first week of March. 34.9*F.

[Stacsh]

Solid LES occurring here with NNW bands. Nothing huge but might pick up 2-3 inches total when all is said and done. Of course 10 miles away there is zero snow. 23 degrees.

[jaster220]

Tornado just SE of Cleveland today.  Crazy weather.  

 

Crazier wx! I was on the east side of CLE this afternoon and it was 21F with wicked windchill, snow and sleet heavy and drifts forming. Couple inches OTG and felt like normal mid-winter. What a flip they got over there

[jaster220]

Solid LES occurring here with NNW bands. Nothing huge but might pick up 2-3 inches total when all is said and done. Of course 10 miles away there is zero snow. 23 degrees.

 

Got lucky with the LES today picking up 0.8" here in Marshall. Stronger winds no doubt got it here. Stepping out to snow this morning was a real "perk me up"

[jaster220]

• Nov 9th to Dec 11th cold and snowy.
• Dec 12th to Jan 8th opposite.
• Jan 9th and back to cold with at least some snow immediately.

[jaster220]

 

Jan '78 is looking like a good contender and I'm sticking with it.

 

 

[westMJim]

Had to take a trip to the other side of town. Here at my house there is just a trace of snow on the ground. On the NE side of town there is a soild covering and the ground is covered and so are the side walks. Then went to the southeast side of town and there there is no snow at all on the ground and over in the SW side it is about the same as here at my house. The current temperature here is 22.1° with cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Its cold tanite but its actually near normal. Temps falling in the upper teens. Our bodies are just not used to this because we have been so spoiled lately w all that mild weather.

[Niko]

Dry weather looks  to prevail till at least next week or even maybe beyond that. Brief warm-up also should not be as mild as the previous warm-spell, but near 40F cannot be ruled out b4 turning colder once again.

[jaster220]

Per a poster at amwx. Jives with Tom's ref. to snowmaggeden

 

 

18z gfs for the sub...

(3) big threats,  240, 300, 370.   They aren't dried up clippers either, they are juiced up systems coming out of the southern plains.     It's these kind of runs that started showing up in the LR leading up to Feb'10.   Details sucked but the overall idea of a snow bonanza in a relatively short time ended up being spot on.

[Tom]

I've had an early start to the day today and stepped outside into what feels like a freezer.  Temps have dipped to 14F under clear skies and no wind.  Boy, what a difference in air mass from just a few days ago.  Those 50's we enjoyed have thinned up my blood and this arctic air is chillin' me to the bone!  Brrrrr...yesterday, I was out and about spending the majority of the day outside and that cold wind was a smack in the face.  I'm excited to see some snow this weekend and to see a change in the landscape.  Riding the northern fringe of this late week system and hoping to score enough to cover the grass.

[Niko]

Currently at 19F w light snow. Everything snowcover. What a difference from previous days where I had temps in the 50s at 1100pm at night. Back to reality.

[Tom]

Over the past few years, I made some very bold LR calls that panned out and a few have been historic periods for certain locals.  More recently, I had a vision of a cold November that many of us around the MW/GL's experienced a historic cold/snowy November.  Last year I made a forecast 2 weeks before the early Feb "Snow Blitz" that hit the MW/Lower GL's and Chicago experienced a historic stretch of 9 straight days of measurable snow.  You may ask yourself, why am I bringing this up???  Well, I have a vision of something special brewing over the next 2 weeks across our sub, primarily targeting the central/eastern part of our sub.  

 

Let me dive in and provide some evidence the models are illustrating on what is shaping up to be a long duration, hyper active pattern which I had on my calendar for weeks now.  So, as we are about to witness the 1st, in what will be a series of potential large winter storms to target our sub, there are systems lined up a few days apart as we progress through the rest of the month.  My confidence has grown drastically over the past few days as the models are sniffing out a favorable PNA (slight SER) pattern which I outlined a couple days ago using a technique I've learned using the 10mb heights maps.  Mind you, the models not long ago were favoring a +PNA in the extended but I said to look out for them to trend the other way.  What we are seeing now is the evolution of the LRC and the 10mb technique working I have found to have some value.  Last night, both the 00z EPS/GEFS have now both agreed that the PNA is no longer heading (+) but now more neutral which is an ideal look for our sub provided we continue to have a -AO/-NAO pattern.

 

Take a look at the maps below and one can clearly see how wintry the pattern is poised to set up.  All I'm saying is, while many have written off this winter and threw in the towel, I did not and held firm on the idea this month had a lot on the table.  I'm truly excited that for many of us in the target region of where the most active storm track has set up this season across the heartland.  We are in a great position to score some big hits and they will likely keep coming.  The LRC and other LR tools I use are all lining up in harmony that will provide atmospheric fireworks for many members.  #BuildTheGlacier

 

 

I'll make another post on the next storm threats....

[Tom]

It is now becoming very obvious that the pattern later this week/weekend is transitioning out of the lame/warm pattern we have been stuck in for weeks.  It is happening, it is real, and it will last for a number of weeks.  Mother Nature is about to unleash her fury as practically all the variables you look for cold and snow are coming together.  This is the vision I had when I made my Winter Forecast and I'm thrilled to be able to finally witness the potential with many of you.

 

The next big ticket storm is lining up about a day or so later than my original thought (15th-18th) and there is enough ensemble evidence that support this idea.   I'm expecting to see some shifting in the operational models to where exactly this next storm (18th-19th) will track.  Needless to say, this system could be a big one riding a very tight thermal boundary with true arctic origin air to the north and some warmth to the south. This type of gradient pattern reminds me of a La Nina pattern and a clue the LRC is cycling.  We are in the midst of the pattern that showed a SER signal for about a 2-3 week period.  Let's see how this system develops.

[Tom]

The latest JMA weeklies have come in and they have flipped considerably from the torchy look last week and in line with the rest of the climate models.  Check out the 500mb maps below and the coinciding temp/precip maps.

 

Week 1-2 highlighting a very tight temp gradient pattern and a very wet signal for the Plains/MW/W GL's region.

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201901.D0912_gl0.png

 

 

Temps....IMO, it's way too warm in the Plains/MW...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201901.D0912_gl2.png

 

 

 

 

Weeks 3-4 continue with a similar theme....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201901.D0912_gl0.png

 

Temps....

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201901.D0912_gl2.png

[Tom]

The overall PAC SST pattern is now beginning to look like the good ol' days when we had established cold/warm pools.   One will quickly notice, that a Modoki type Nino pattern is evolving across the central PAC and a cold pool in the N PAC along with a warm pool in the NE PAC.  These are very important trends as we progress through the heart of Winter.

 

Edit: Forgot to even mention this, but a beautiful warm pocket off the SE coast.  It's torching down near the FL coast.

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201901.D0912_gls.png

[Andie]

49*. High of 60*. Gorgeous clear day ahead.

[Yerf]

From LOT:

Would be remiss to not mention that both operational runs of the
GFS and ECMWF show bitterly cold air beginning to build up in
Canada in the 7-10 day period. There are indications that this
could be the harbinger of a flip in the pattern from mostly above
average temps to a colder, more frequently below average temp
regime later this month. Stay tuned...

[westMJim]

While looking up some information for history blog I do for a west Michigan site.  The question was asked and I confirmed that this winter season has been the least snowy first 42 days meteorological winter at Grand Rapids. Here is a shorter answer to that question.  yes, indeed this winter season should become the least snowy period form December 1^st to any January 10^th in Grand Rapids history.  For this above time period here are the least snowy first 40 days of meteorological winter (Grand Rapids is now at 4.3” since December 1^st)

1. 5.8” 2015/16
2. 6.0” 1943/44
3. 6.8” 1913/14
4. 7.1” 1905/06
5. 7.6” 1979/80
6. 8.1” 1902/03

We will have to see how the next 40 to 45 days play out. BTW the current total snow fall at Grand Rapids for the winter season of 2018/19 is now at 18.7" the average amount by this date should be 35.7" (-17.0") last year the amount of snow fall by this date was 39.0"

[WBadgersW]

Nope. I’m not sure if we have much more than 4” over the entire winter so far.

 

*Edit* Officially at 8” for the entire season. Pitiful.

Dang. What a shame

[Hawkeye]

Oh boy, another big snowstorm missing just south of the I-80 corridor next weekend on the 00z GFS.  Considering the current storm is the fourth big snow event to miss south already, the 00z GFS is probably right.

[Clinton]

Oh boy, another big snowstorm missing just south of the I-80 corridor next weekend on the 00z GFS.  Considering the current storm is the fourth big snow event to miss south already, the 00z GFS is probably right.

CMC has a storm also just even further south.

[james1976]

Oh boy, another big snowstorm missing just south of the I-80 corridor next weekend on the 00z GFS.  Considering the current storm is the fourth big snow event to miss south already, the 00z GFS is probably right.

Yup....its getting to be a real dud of a winter around here. Everything is south.