August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[snowstorm83]

Omaha Eppley recorded a dew point of 81 today

[james1976]

@Tom it was Sun City, Arizona we stayed at last night. Tonight we are in El Paso!

[OKwx2k4]

@Tom it was Sun City, Arizona we stayed at last night. Tonight we are in El Paso!

I'm not Tom, but sounds like you're having an enjoyable travel experience. Happy for you buddy.

[Tom]

This mornings radar looks awesome for NE folks who need a nice soaking rain.  Almost has that look of a stratiform rain system you see in the Autumn months.  It's nice to see how nature will eventually balance things out in a pattern where we have seen so many extremes this summer season.  That heat you all experienced over the last couple days must have been unbearable.  The tide is about to turn and summer will be slowly winding down.

 

I'm looking forward to a stretch of delightful, comfy and sunny weather starting tomorrow through the weekend.  Another picturesque weekend on tap with temps holding in the middle 70's for highs...ahhhh!

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Here at my house I hit the jackpot in yesterdays rain fall I recorded 0.44" of rain. That looks to be one of the heaver amounts in the area.  I was not home when the rain fell but my wife said it came down fast and heavy. At work there (about 6 miles away) it rained but no where near as much as here at my house. The current temperature here at my house is 65 with clear skies. Note yesterdays rain that fell in this area but still no thunderstorms.

[westMJim]

Big storm hitting SEMI (my particular area) w vivid lightning, thunder, strong winds and torrential downpours.

Thunder, lightning what is that??? There has be a big lack of thunderstorms here on the west side of the state.

[Tom]

You don't often see maps like these and it struck me how active the mid latitudes are going to get over the next week...there are 4 troughs all lined up from East Asia all the way across the PAC ocean into the U.S.  This pattern is primed to get real active/wet as we close out August and head into the 1st month of met Autumn.  Not to mention, it's likely going to get darn chilly for our northern half members of the Sub come Labor Day weekend.  The signal is there for some chilly days/nights...bon fires will be en fuego!

 

 

 

[Niko]

Thunder, lightning what is that??? There has be a big lack of thunderstorms here on the west side of the state.

Thunder= a loud rumbling or crashing noise heard after a lightning flash due to the expansion of rapidly heated air.

 

Lightning= the occurrence of a natural electrical discharge of very short duration and high voltage between a cloud and the ground or within a cloud, accompanied by a bright flash and typically also thunder.

 

 These storms blossomed ova my area last second as they were moving towards Canada

[Niko]

Received 2.10" of liquid last night. Very impressive. More storms today as the CF approaches my area. Gorgeous weather follows right through the weekend w temps in the 70s for highs and lows in the low 50s. Hello bonfire! I think someone will see upper 40s for low temps.

 

Currently, cloudy, humid and warm w temps at 72F and a dew of 71f. The air is saturated w moisture.

[Niko]

Omaha Eppley recorded a dew point of 81 today

Holy Crap!!!

[Hawkeye]

There is a line of rain/thundershowers in central Iowa, moving northeast, but models have this stuff drying up as it tries to lift north of I-80.  Radar already shows this in the Des Moines area.  Sparky could get something.

[Stormy]

There is a line of rain/thundershowers in central Iowa, moving northeast, but models have this stuff drying up as it tries to lift north of I-80.  Radar already shows this in the Des Moines area.  Sparky could get something.

It's further north and heavier than I expected. Some of that is very heavy per radar. Figured it would stay in northern Mo. area. With the weather pattern (change?) it just seems to rain easier.

[Niko]

Man, its tropical outside. Temp at 75F w a dew of 73F. Hopefully, this CF coming today will trigger a few more severe storms like yesterday. Good to know though that relief is on the way. WoooHooo!!!

[Niko]

My lows for Friday night seem to be getting lower and lower. Now projected lows are at 52F. Another cooldown by months end into LDW. Hello Autumn!!

[Stormy]

Omaha Eppley recorded a dew point of 81 today

Nebraska is actually more humid this summer than in Iowa it seems, especially this month. Probably because of all your rainfall.

[Stormy]

I'm not a fan when storms crap out just before it arrives. An outflow from the sw. moved through.

[Minny_Weather]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some lake breeze storms later on. Pretty good NW breeze right now here in Bowling Green and DP of 69. 82°F.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Huge bust here on the heavy rainfall. Have only had .24" of rain at my place. Might have thundered a couple of times too around 6am.

 

Of note, the 80+ dewpoint recorded yesterday at Eppley was only the 38th time in 30 years of record keeping according to the NWS.

[Madtown]

talk of highs in the 60s late next week?

[james1976]

talk of highs in the 60s late next week?

That would be amazing cuz I return home from tour at that time!

[Tom]

What a beautiful morning here in Chitown...A/C turned off, windows are open, DP's have fallen into the mid 50's and temps are forecast to only reach the upper 70's today and low 70's tomorrow...ahhh!  I think its safe to say we can say good bye to the heat and humidity up this way till next year.  Based off the research I've done and the data I've looked at, all systems are a "GO" that we are about to enter Autumn abruptly for many on here.  I'm so ready for the change in the cooler weather pattern..."hoodie season" is around the corner and the smell of wood burning throughout the neighborhoods will be common, esp as we enter late next week and the Labor Day holiday.

[Tom]

Today's JMA weeklies are holding steady and not backing down on a cool/cold pattern settling in over the next 2-4 weeks.  Within the next 3 weeks, I'll be able to contribute more info on what the LRC may look like in early October.  The longer range climate models (CFSv2/JMA) are both seeing a similar pattern set up by mid Sept across the N PAC and we can use this information to predict our pattern 17-21 days out.  With that being said, I can say with confidence, that October is going to open up active and chilly.  So, here we go...

 

Week 2 temp/precip...widespread cool...our southern friends are finally going to snap out of the resilient "August ridge" in the deep south.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201908.D2112_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201908.D2112_gl0.png

 

 

 

Week 3-4 temp/precip...this is where I am starting to "see" what the new 2019-20 LRC may look like in early October.  The clear signal among the modeling is for a deep Aleutian Low to develop mid/late Sept and a resulting large scale NE PAC/NW NAMER ridge.  Another main feature I'm seeing off the JMA is an active STJ coming out of the E PAC near the Baja of Cali.  Enhanced moisture coming out of the SW could very well be enhanced by this configuration heading into early October.

 

Canada is going to get really cold early and quite snowy next month.  Early season build up of ice/snow is no longer a question in my mind.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D2112_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D2112_gl0.png

[East Dubzz]

My wedding is next weekend (August 31). The GFS has consistently been showing temps in the 60s. What does the Euro show? I know it’s far out and can change, bud im getting to the point where I’ll be paying more attention.

[Niko]

It feels awesome outside as the CF has arrived. Very dry air ova my area now and temps are a very comfortable 64F, along w a  dew of 53F under mostly cloudy skies. Chilly nights ahead as temps bottom out in the low 50s w a few 40s in spots is a strong possibility. Highs only in the low to mid 70s. It will feel great!

[Hawkeye]

The euro had been showing a possible heavy rain event later in the period, but it has since gone much more progressive and strong with the nw flow, so much of the rain has been shunted well south.

[Iowawx]

The latest drought monitor still has Cedar Rapids in the moderate drought. ?????  We got about 3 inches of rain in the past week, so that makes no sense, the lawns around here are much more green than they were even just a week ago. 

 

I guess we still need more rain around here. Good thing the GFS looks active next week. WPC precip map also looks good as well. 

[Tom]

My wedding is next weekend (August 31). The GFS has consistently been showing temps in the 60s. What does the Euro show? I know it’s far out and can change, bud im getting to the point where I’ll be paying more attention.

Wow, congrats! It’s basically about the same as the GFS. I’d bet money to expect upper 60’s/Low 70’s. Good thing is, it’ll prob be underneath HP which will be great for outdoor pics/vids.

[Hawkeye]

The latest drought monitor still has Cedar Rapids in the moderate drought. ?????  We got about 3 inches of rain in the past week, so that makes no sense, the lawns around here are much more green than they were even just a week ago. 

 

I guess we still need more rain around here. Good thing the GFS looks active next week. WPC precip map also looks good as well. 

 

The drought/dry area was removed from Benton county to northern Iowa county to nw Johnson county, where the heaviest rain fell early Tuesday morning.  It certainly could have been removed here as well.  Two significant soakings totaling 3+" have left us plenty moist.  I am back to having to mow the lawn every three days.

[East Dubzz]

Wow, congrats! It’s basically about the same as the GFS. I’d bet money to expect upper 60’s/Low 70’s. Good thing is, it’ll prob be underneath HP which will be great for outdoor pics/vids.

 

Thank you!

 

That's my hope, though. I was thinking, based on what we currently see, I think we can almost rule out 90s and hot at this point. I'm guessing you're going to be right on with your prediction of 60s/70s. And, honestly, for me... that's PERFECT weather if we can get some sunshine with it.

[CentralNebWeather]

Since our flooding rains of July 6th, the rains have pretty much missed my area time and again for the last 6 weeks.  Areas in all directions have had soaking rains, but several counties of Central Nebraska are dry.  Many yards are drying up unless sprinklers are in use.  Cloudy, misty, and foggy now, but no rain again.  I think we have been in flood watches 3 times in the last 2 weeks and at the most got .25"

I know that farmers are having to dump water on which is expensive. 

[Tom]

Thank you!

 

That's my hope, though. I was thinking, based on what we currently see, I think we can almost rule out 90s and hot at this point. I'm guessing you're going to be right on with your prediction of 60s/70s. And, honestly, for me... that's PERFECT weather if we can get some sunshine with it.

Sunshine and upper 60's wearing a suit or tuxedo is a winner in my book!

[gabel23]

Since our flooding rains of July 6th, the rains have pretty much missed my area time and again for the last 6 weeks.  Areas in all directions have had soaking rains, but several counties of Central Nebraska are dry.  Many yards are drying up unless sprinklers are in use.  Cloudy, misty, and foggy now, but no rain again.  I think we have been in flood watches 3 times in the last 2 weeks and at the most got .25"

I know that farmers are having to dump water on which is expensive. 

So crazy; when you were getting all the flooding rains we had a 3 week dry spell in our area. I had to run the sprinklers for my yard and soaker hoses out in the garden. I'm closing in on nearly 6" of rain for the month and every morning this week has been foggy and dewy. Funny how mother nature can give so much and then take it away. 

[CentralNebWeather]

So crazy; when you were getting all the flooding rains we had a 3 week dry spell in our area. I had to run the sprinklers for my yard and soaker hoses out in the garden. I'm closing in on nearly 6" of rain for the month and every morning this week has been foggy and dewy. Funny how mother nature can give so much and then take it away. 

And as I am reading this, a line of storms can through and dropped .20" out of the blue.  Doesn't look like much more in the coming hours.  We are having our poweraid football scrimmage tonight.

[Tom]

Looks like those Barney maps are showing up later next week to close out the month...lets see if some places set some record lows.

[Niko]

Currently mostly to partly cloudy w temps at 72F and dew at 52F. Refreshing indeed!!

[Niko]

Here is my friend Frankie w his Winter outlook. Looks like a wild Winter to me. Looking forward to all this Frankie.

 

https://youtu.be/Kcz5qgYnoAw

[Niko]

Currently at 59F w crystal clear skies. Absolutely gorgeous evening outside.

[Niko]

Jaster- did ya get any rainfall yesterday? I picked up 2.10" from a very impressive t'stm. Lasted about 20minutes. Other areas to my south received slightly more.

[Stormhunter87]

Looks like those Barney maps are showing up later next week to close out the month...lets see if some places set some record lows.

Now that the baby can handle temperatures better I'm looking forward to shutting the air off.

[Tom]

This morning certainly has a bit of that autumn feel.  I'm enjoying the cool, crisp air that is seeping into my house.  Currently 56F/54F and heading into the low 70's today with another day of lake winds.  My grid temps over the next 7 days keep lowering and next week will likely be even chillier.  Is it conceivable some places up north will have to turn on their furnace or have the fireplace burning???

 

Speaking of the August chill, some spots up in the upper & lower MI are dipping into the upper 30's!