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11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm

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#101
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 November 2019 - 06:38 PM

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MPX nowcast:

Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0C
line from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the very
strong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamical
cooling and more snow will result than what the models are
projecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, and
could result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18Z
GFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera method
illustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6
inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rang
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#102
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 November 2019 - 07:34 PM

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About to start here within the next 30 min. Good luck to the few in play!

#103
St Paul Storm

Posted 29 November 2019 - 08:01 PM

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Not sure it means much at this point, but the GFS now drops a 14” bomb on MSP.
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#104
Madtown

Posted 29 November 2019 - 08:01 PM

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Have fun SPS. heck of 4 day stretch!
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#105
Beltrami Island

Posted 29 November 2019 - 08:17 PM

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I have been pretty much out of the game on the north side of this one for about 3 days. But as this storm gets closer I have a gut feeling this is going to turn into a flop of a storm for all of northern Minnesota. It's just taking to long for the moisture to get north. Central MN looks to be the winner at the moment.

#106
Grizzcoat

Posted 29 November 2019 - 09:36 PM

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If there is ever a time to get dry slotted it's when your not going to get any snow anyway. All ready had my fill of a cold rain for this month.


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#107
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 29 November 2019 - 09:39 PM

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We had a 90% chance of rain this afternoon and tonight and all we had was a brief passing shower about 1pm and that’s been it. Which is fine bc who wants rain and 35 degrees in November?
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#108
Stormgeek

Posted 29 November 2019 - 10:05 PM

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Euro coming in hot and heavy. Absolutely steamrolls my place. Think models finally are getting a handle. Lowest output as of now is the High-Res GFS with 7 inches. Locked and loaded, let the party commence.


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#109
Grizzcoat

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:14 AM

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MPX lowering totals-

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
348 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

A few minor changes to the forecast, but overall the winter storm
remains on track to bring snow across the north, with a wintry mix
across the south today. Later tonight everyone will transition over
to snow as colder moves across the region and the thermal profiles
cool. The snow will exit the region on Sunday. Winds will start out
easterly this morning, and then back with time to a more northerly
direction for Sunday.

The subtleties and non-linear properties of the atmosphere will be
on full display today as an occluded storm system brings waves of
precipitation across the Upper Midwest. As has been the case for
some time, areas across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin will be
cooler and have mainly snow. Given the long duration of this event,
snowfall amounts in excess of a foot are expected. Areas to the
south have a warm layer aloft that will lead to some partial melting,
while the sub-freezing layer beneath it should be deep enough for
some refreezing and sleet, generally along the I-94 corridor. This
will cut back on snowfall amounts. In addition, surface temps are
forecast to hoover slightly above freezing, so this too will cut
down on snow ratios, and thus snowfall amounts. If temperatures are
a bit cooler, then one can expect the higher snowfall amounts to
shift southward.

With that caveat in mind, the reasoning behind lowering snow amounts
across the Twin Cities and Eau Claire region are as follows.
Forecast soundings off the RAP/HRRR show a warm layer around the
750mb level, with elevated instability aloft. These types of set ups
tend to favor a more cellular look to the precipitation, with
embedded graupel/sleet. (For what it`s worth, the reflectivity
output of the HiRes models support this as well.) Trended toward
that solution, so have lower snowfall amounts. For example, the
30.00Z GFS has 4 to 5 inches of snow from this afternoon and evening
through 05Z Sunday for both the Twin Cities and Eau Claire WI.
Meanwhile the RAP/HRRR have only 1 to 2 inches. This discrepancy is
less evident at St Cloud, where the GFS has again 4 to 5 inches,
while the RAP/HRRR come in with around 3 inches. Lastly, all 3
models are in very good agreement a bit farther north in Little
Falls MN. Assuming these higher resolution, more current models have
a better depiction of the atmosphere, one would lean more heavily on
them as the event nears, and for that reason have less overall
snowfall along and east-to-west line through the Twin Cities, but
similar amounts to the previous forecast along the northern tier of
counties.


The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#110
Grizzcoat

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:27 AM

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MPX nowcast:

Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0C
line from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the very
strong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamical
cooling and more snow will result than what the models are
projecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, and
could result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18Z
GFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera method
illustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6
inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rang

Being later in the game- I think these totals are too high. Further N is where you wanna be.


The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#111
bud2380

Posted 30 November 2019 - 05:35 AM

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12z HRRR is bad news for the twin cities. That dry slot means business and when the storm does get its act together it’s drawing warm air in on the southern edge. 12z run only has 1-2”

Season Snowfall 23.2"


#112
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:16 AM

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Here’s the 12z HRRR run. Still showing a good hit. RAP is north of the HRRR.

12Z NAMs similar to HRRR.

About 2” of snow fell overnight.

Attached Files


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#113
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:32 AM

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Not sure it means much at this point, but the GFS now drops a 14” bomb on MSP.


Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.
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#114
Money

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:37 AM

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NAM up to over 8 inches of snow here and trending farther south each run
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#115
westMJim

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:45 AM

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At this time it is cloudy and 34° here at my house. And the wind is picking up. One thing for sure it looks like a cold rain for later today and will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures. My guess at this time is a very cold rain here with more ice just to the north but we shall see.



#116
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:46 AM

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Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.


These iffy thermal situations seem to rarely work out favorably. We’ll see what happens with this. Gonna be some very different snow totals within a short distance. Good luck with this one!
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#117
westMJim

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:50 AM

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Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.

We will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures today in tonight. At this time I have a temperature of 34 and the wind is picking up a little. One thing I would point out is that there is a Winter Storm Watch out for the thumb but Lake Huron is still warm so that may not help the temps with a NE wind,  As far as I can see there has never been a ice storm in Michigan in November. And if the winds do pick up to 40 MPH with any ice that will be a big problem. My guess is that any ice will be north of GR.



#118
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:52 AM

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NAM up to over 8 inches of snow here and trending farther south each run

12z NAM not only further S, but stalls in S LM delivering the perfect pivot for the Mitt! Geez be right for once lol.

Attached File  namconus_asnow_ncus_16.png   166.08KB   0 downloads

#119
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 06:56 AM

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At WMIjim

Yeah, November is not ice storm season traditionally. Having said that, this has been anything but a "typical" start to winter. So who really knows??

#120
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:10 AM

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Looks like we benefit from night time passage of th SLP too. NAM pops us above freezing very briefly here in Traverse then stays solidly below.

HRDPS is very similar and brings 12+ around here. Most storms have gotten more robust as they hit The Lakes. Will this one continue that trend, or break it??

Attached File  hrdps_asnow_ncus_48.png   174.3KB   0 downloads

#121
Money

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:14 AM

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Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSP

#122
Stormgeek

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:32 AM

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This is not exactly how I expected this storm to look. Some weird banding going on with occasional bursts of precip. Can tell I'm right on the thermal boundary; sleet and snow mixing whenever there is precip. Never seen it like that before.
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#123
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:36 AM

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Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSP

Yep. ICON super stingy with snow everywhere! Even GFS now has much more for the Mitt. I do see a growing consensus with taking the SLP to S LM and stalling it there as the snow shield swings around thru NMI. This would go a long ways to mitigate the WTOD and make this much less of a mixy mess and much more a legit snowstorm. Euro with a perfect SLP pivot and the 850s look great too:

Attached File  ecmwf_T850_ncus_3.png   285.1KB   0 downloads

#124
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:38 AM

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Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSP


What does the JMA show?

#125
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:39 AM

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Flipping between snow and heavy pingers at the moment. Temp at 32F
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#126
Money

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:40 AM

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What does the JMA show?


Lol someone is mad because I mentioned the icon?

#127
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 07:42 AM

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Lol someone is mad because I mentioned the icon?


Nah. Just wanted to see your response. Lol
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#128
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:11 AM

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This is not exactly how I expected this storm to look. Some weird banding going on with occasional bursts of precip. Can tell I'm right on the thermal boundary; sleet and snow mixing whenever there is precip. Never seen it like that before.


Remind me again how far north of the metro you live? 20-30 miles or so?

#129
Stormgeek

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:15 AM

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Remind me again how far north of the metro you live? 20-30 miles or so?

I am about 40 miles out of downtown Minneapolis.

Edit: Maybe more like 30

#130
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 08:40 AM

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Welp. Despite what I thought were positive SR Model trends the NWS offices have decided to go the other direction and issued the WWA's

#131
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 09:10 AM

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Unbelievable ice pellet storm at the moment. Cars in the ditch north of St Paul. This is nuts. Gopher/Badger game gonna be fun this afternoon if thermals stay like this.
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#132
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 30 November 2019 - 10:18 AM

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Is it just me or does it look like the GFS from several days ago wasn't that far off with the higher storm totals further north, dry slot, etc? I wasn't paying a lot of attention to this one since I was never in the game, but I remember seeing everyone saying how far north it was compared to the other models.


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#133
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 11:14 AM

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I'm not savvy at deciphering skew-T graphics, but it seems that their snow maps should align with any warm layers being depicted. With most models showing more snow than the current headlines, it's an interesting battle setting up across this region.
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#134
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 12:15 PM

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Some 12z maps:

GEM

Attached File  sn10_acc.us_mw (1).png   150.63KB   0 downloads

GFS

Attached File  sn10_acc.us_mw (2).png   150.77KB   0 downloads

Euro

Attached File  sn10_acc.us_mw (3).png   142.79KB   0 downloads

NAM

Attached File  sn10_acc.us_mw (4).png   165.06KB   0 downloads
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#135
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 12:29 PM

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*
POPULAR

Thundersnow!
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#136
Money

Posted 30 November 2019 - 12:29 PM

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Under a winter weather advisory for 2-5 inches of snow
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#137
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 01:13 PM

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More..

RGEMAttached File  sn10_acc.us_mw (5).png   156.63KB   0 downloads

GEFS

Attached File  snod.conus.png   119.54KB   0 downloads

HRRR

Attached File  sn10_acc.us_mw (6).png   156.35KB   0 downloads

RAP

Attached File  sn10_acc.conus (1).png   100.52KB   0 downloads

RAP is only thru 9 am but still looks pretty good with snow well south over WMI
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#138
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 01:14 PM

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Looks like we may avoid the dry slot. 20z HRRR showing this. Current radar trends show its gonna be close. Moderate frozen precip now. The big snow totals won’t verify but we should see some good snow tonight.
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#139
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 01:58 PM

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Looks like we may avoid the dry slot. 20z HRRR showing this. Current radar trends show its gonna be close. Moderate frozen precip now. The big snow totals won’t verify but we should see some good snow tonight.

How are winds?

For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now?

#140
MNTonka

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:10 PM

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There were two separate groups fishing (in a boat) on White Bear Lake this afternoon when I drove by! The crappy cell phone pic doesn’t quite pick them up, but it looked nasty out there!

Attached Files


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#141
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:11 PM

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How are winds?
For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now?

Winds howl at times and then die down to almost nothing. When it flips to snow it’s like cement. Decent flakes but very wet. Downgraded to an advisory here. We should see a few inches tonight before we turn the page to December. Short term models appear to have had the thermals pinned down pretty well. Good luck!
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#142
Grizzcoat

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:28 PM

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Tornado Warning my county--

 

https://forecast.wea...tornado warning


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#143
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:28 PM

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Tornado warning just west of Des Moines? Grizz?

#144
Grizzcoat

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:35 PM

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yep -- two reports of rope tornado. Did not last long.


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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.


#145
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:48 PM

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NOAA:
 

A wintry mix is possible overnight, before transitioning to rain by morning. 
Some minor accumulation of ice will be possible, mainly north
of M-59.

UGH! I hate ice!


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#146
jaster220

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:52 PM

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NOAA:
 
A wintry mix is possible overnight, before transitioning to rain by morning.
Some minor accumulation of ice will be possible, mainly north
of M-59.
UGH! I hate ice!

Think there will be that much??

#147
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:53 PM

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Think there will be that much??

Hope not! Much rather have rain.



#148
Niko

Posted 30 November 2019 - 02:55 PM

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18zNAM likes my area:

 

snku_acc.us_ne.png


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#149
Mi_Matthew

Posted 30 November 2019 - 03:46 PM

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18zNAM likes my area:

snku_acc.us_ne.png


I wish the NAM wasn't on an island to itself with the accumulating snow here! Just maybe though...
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#150
St Paul Storm

Posted 30 November 2019 - 04:34 PM

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Been pound town snow for about an hour. Roads are a mess.
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