April 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

A warm-ish summer (at least a good chunk of it) out here wouldn't surprise me at all. Niños tend to favor warm western summers. But anyone can admit the continent-spanning torch on those maps is pretty ridiculous.

[Guest Monty67]

A warm-ish summer (at least a good chunk of it) out here wouldn't surprise me at all. Niños tend to favor warm western summers. But anyone can admit the continent-spanning torch on those maps is pretty ridiculous.

I totally agree that the coverage of above seasonal temps is likely way overdone. I did find it interesting that it seems to be showing the warm western summer and active monsoon season that others have been mentioning as a possibility.

[Guest Monty67]

Thanks... most of the credit goes to my wife.  

 

Biggest pet peeve I have about the PNW... some people really care about how their property looks but a huge percentage of the population does not care at all.   In Minnesota... even most modest homes are well maintained with manicured yards.    Its part of the culture there to take pride in your home and yard.    Its not about money... its about taking pride in ownership.

It seems that my neighborhood has kind of gone downhill over the last 15 years or so, as far as property up keep. At my new house, I am the first person on the street to have mowed their lawn. The property, only 1/4 acre is mostly lawn in poor shape with a dozen or so overgrown un-pruned shrubs. Hopefully in the next couple years it will be the nicest on the street. My goal is to keep it simple and low maintenance but still make it interesting and colorful during the growing season.

[Jesse]

I totally agree that the coverage of above seasonal temps is likely way overdone. I did find it interesting that it seems to be showing the warm western summer and active monsoon season that others have been mentioning as a possibility.

Yeah, that is a fairly typical +ENSO outlook. I will take a warm summer with an active monsoon. Maybe it will be like 1985 where we have a hot June/July followed by dramatically cooler from August onward.

[Jesse]

One thing is certain, we are way overdue for a "classic" cool summer. It has been since at least 1999, maybe even 1993. 2010 and 2011 were on the cool side but nowhere near some of the biggies.

 

I think we will see one of those sometime in the next 3-4 years, once the current Niño fades and we go into a muti-year Nina with low solar activity and the -PDO regime continuing.

[TT-SEA]

Starting to get a strong indication of a significantly wet period later next week.

[richard mann]

I can tell you that missed-inversions are not the reason the ECMWF constantly runs way warm across the globe at the end of its monthly outlook. It rarely predicts cold anomalies anywhere after month 3.

 

..... Bogus radiative transfer physics and convective parameterizations are the reason it cannot forecast temperatures, which artificially perturbs the simulated global circulations towards its later months..in error of course..

 

 

There are others, even more basic.

[TT-SEA]

One thing is certain, we are way overdue for a "classic" cool summer. It has been since at least 1999, maybe even 1993. 2010 and 2011 were on the cool side but nowhere near some of the biggies.

 

I think we will see one of those sometime in the next 3-4 years, once the current Niño fades and we go into a muti-year Nina with low solar activity and the -PDO regime continuing.

 

 

Take out two very hot weeks from the summer of 2010 and it was a drizzly, marine layer mess up here.    

 

Even days that ended up looking decent in the record books... took FOREVER to clear up.    So many days that summer it was crappy and cold as hell into the early afternoon and then the sun would break out at 4 p.m. for a couple hours and make the day look much better statistically than it was living through it.   

 

Ultimately... those types of summers will eventually force us to move because they will continue to happen.   It was a hopeless depressing feeling waiting for a couple hours of sun breaks each day.   Not just me.   A few families around us moved away from the region entirely... directly as a result of that spring and summer.   My wife (who is more tolerant than me of bad weather) broke down crying a few times that year and that has never happened EVER over the weather.       

[TT-SEA]

1993 and 1999 were back end summers.

 

In 1999... it turned pretty decent around July 5th.    From 7/5-10/24 it only rained 21 out of 112 days at my location.    

 

That means there was 91 out of 112 dry days... not bad.   Although it was never really warm... mostly in the 70s and low 80s

 

1993 was a horror show through July.    In fact July of 1993 was a complete nightmare.    Although that was a crazy summer all over the place... the flooding in the Midwest was epic and record smashing.    

 

August and September of 1993 were actually very nice though... so there was some semblance of summer that year for awhile.    

[richard mann]

-

Only a politically motivated whack job can miss 200 square miles of cold.

… It's all a giant conspiracy then, huh "Phil".

— Or have you meant as opposed to the "non" politically motivated whack jobs. ?
 
Sell me a "song".

[TT-SEA]

Strange configuration of warmer water in the ENSO region... seems centered unusually far north compared to a typical Nino.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.10.2014.gif

[richard mann]

Strange configuration of warmer water in the ENSO region... seems centered unusually far north compared to a typical Nino.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.10.2014.gif

I'm confused. What are you saying more specifically here Tim. ?

 

— There doesn't appear to be anything, more "centered", anywhere on this map, apart from the NNE sitting gyre within the Northern Gulf of Alaska.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

[TT-SEA]

I'm confused. What are you saying more specifically here Tim. ?

 

— There doesn't appear to be anything, more "centered", anywhere on this map, apart from the NNE sitting gyre within the Northern Gulf of Alaska.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html

 

 

Here is what I think of as a normal Nino configuration in the ENSO region... warm water centered over the equator.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.12.31.2009.gif

 

 

The current configuration is different in the ENSO region... warmer water to the north of the equator and cooler to the south:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.10.2014.gif

[richard mann]

-

(.. routing to the main ENSO thread.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/141-2014-enso-thread/?p=24818

 

.. Your posts both here above, copied in there in full. Along with my response to your post most recent here.

[Phil]

Here is what I think of as a normal Nino configuration in the ENSO region... warm water centered over the equator.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.12.31.2009.gif

 

 

The current configuration is different in the ENSO region... warmer water to the north of the equator and cooler to the south:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.10.2014.gif

Haha, almost looks like an SST sandwich at the equator. We've seen a temporary resurgence of the trade winds, and OHC is declining as a result.

 

Next week, a new round of WWBs is possible, though maybe not as strong as the last round which set off the giant KW.

[FroYoBro]

This April has been awesome so far. 

[chinook]

This April has been awesome so far.

 

No doubt...lite frost this morning. Great view of Mt. Hood. Kids and dog soaking it in.

[snow_wizard]

Haha, almost looks like an SST sandwich at the equator. We've seen a temporary resurgence of the trade winds, and OHC is declining as a result.

 

Next week, a new round of WWBs is possible, though maybe not as strong as the last round which set off the giant KW.

 

We are obviously in a very crucial window right now regarding factors that are going to determine how strong this Nino gets.  No question the atmosphere has been unfavorable for the surfacing Kelvin wave to have any impact so far.

[snow_wizard]

It's a tough one though because we have the solar signal competing with the tropical signal..to criminally simplify it. I think the tropics will win out given solar forcing is in-between and chaotic, but the stratosphere suggests a good portion of the central/eastern US may see a cooler summer.

 

The 1960s are calling. I don't think it'll be this cold, but the possibility is there:

 

 

 

 

The mid 1960s to early 1970s had some of our best El Nino winters on record here.  I would love to see something like 1968-69 or even 1965-66 or 1972-73.

[snow_wizard]

As some of you may have noticed I'm a mod now.  Be ready for me to crack the whip!

[snow_wizard]

The latest GFGS looks excellent for a crisp and dry weekend.  Saturday night looks like an absolute bet for frost in many places.

[Phil]

We are obviously in a very crucial window right now regarding factors that are going to determine how strong this Nino gets. No question the atmosphere has been unfavorable for the surfacing Kelvin wave to have any impact so far.

Yep the next 8 weeks will give us the reveal, so to speak..though in reality the system started preparing for this Niño response back in summer 2011, when I first predicted it.

 

Now that it's become obvious, people are hyping it up like nothing I've seen before.

[chinook]

Yep the next 8 weeks will give us the reveal, so to speak..though in reality the system started preparing for this Niño response back in summer 2011, when I first predicted it.

Now that it's become obvious, people are hyping it up like nothing I've seen before.

Don't be so self absorbed.

[snow_wizard]

Don't be so self absorbed.

 

 

He has some right to brag about calling this potential El Nino assuming it really materializes...which I think it will at least to some extent.

[Phil]

Don't be so self absorbed.

Sorry. I guess that came off the wrong way.

 

I'm not the only one who predicted it. My colleagues were on the same page.

[richard mann]

Don't be so self absorbed.

 

.. a "good" try. But you should perhaps also have thought to mention his colleges.

 

He has some right to brag about calling this potential El Nino assuming it really materializes...which I think it will at least to some extent.

 

Kind of mixing a few different tenses here Jim. ? .. Maybe if you were to have begun with the main more prepositional phase, "Assuming it materializes, ... 

 

— But then again, maybe so should "Phil" have. 

[snow_wizard]

Sorry. I guess that came off the wrong way.

 

I'm not the only one who predicted it. My colleagues were on the same page.

 

How is the debate going between you and your wife for where you will move...Central WA vs the Coast?  I would bet dollars to donuts she would be much happier in Central WA.  I don't think anyone who hasn't seen the WA Coast in the winter could possibly understand how bleak it is.

[Phil]

How is the debate going between you and your wife for where you will move...Central WA vs the Coast? I would bet dollars to donuts she would be much happier in Central WA. I don't think anyone who hasn't seen the WA Coast in the winter could possibly understand how bleak it is.

She says she's tired of the mountains, and given that we've been living on a ridge for 17 years, I promised her she'd have final say next time we moved. Regretting it now, but I did prohibit SoCal and the OR/CA coasts..so at least I won't be suicidal if I end up on the coast.

 

I'm going to do my best to sway her toward Park City UT or Chelan, WA. Beautiful areas.

 

The reason we're moving is mostly climate and economy-related. We want to get away from the humid summers, and cloudy, snowy winters.

[Weather101]

Reading the last five pages hahaha

 

Who cares who said what first in the models? I just don't get it... Why does Jesse always gotta pick a fight about the dumbest stuff? If you don't like someone's post just ingore it. But seeing him whine about models and someone else saying this first or not liking rain or what not has gotten so sick the last 6 months or less I've been a member and I don't even like coming on here reading him complain 24/7. Eventurally he has to be called out. Stop picking fights. We all love weather just some of us like different things and look at it in a different prespective.

[richard mann]

-
.. The discussion does get a tad particular here in this thread at times. And with this, it's also sometimes difficult to find to appreciate just where the value is in whatever exchange. But there's usually some I've found, in even the most obscure bandying back and forth of whatever idea.
 
The one comment that I would have, relative to yours here above "Weather101", is that it would, be nice some times, to see more connection to a more academic evaluation—even appreciation—of whatever idea. This as opposed to different themes appearing at times to be being just more thrashed around. 
 
— Quite a bit of the time I've found, here where perusing through the different main monthly thread/s connected to the PNW, that what I would call "conversation" more, suffices for "discussion". 

[Jesse]

Beautiful morning out here. Clear with a low of 39.

 

Had a 63/39 spread yesterday.

[richard mann]

-

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/214-april-2014-in-the-pnw/?p=24897  (post no. 389 of the previous page.)

 

 For me a discussion, more specific, begins—or should, in order to be of any value or interest—with an idea having some type or level of foundation, spelled out to some extent with some type of preface, at very least a prepositional phrase working established its context. And then, more mainly, points to something, worthy of actually discussing. Or more essentially, looking into perhaps at least a bit more. Ideally, more academically. — Certainly, even current weather conditions posted fit this definition if looked at more simply.

 

.. But not, something more like, ".. The 196z hour European model run is looking interesting."  Or pick your own adjective, even hour, more singular.

 

Or otherwise, more notable—and in my view both disinteresting and generally, wholly valueless—someone's merely, or certainly in main part, airing their "general" dissatisfaction with whatever more specific aspect of the either weather or climate.

[Deweydog]

 

-

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/214-april-2014-in-the-pnw/?p=24897  (post no. 389 of the previous page.)

 

 For me a discussion, more specific, begins—or should, in order to be of any value or interest—with an idea having some type or level of foundation, spelled out to some extent with some type of preface, at very least a prepositional phrase working established its context. And then, more mainly, points to something, worthy of actually discussing. Or more essentially, looking into perhaps at least a bit more. Ideally, more academically.

 

.. Not something more like, ".. The 196z hour European model run is looking interesting."  Or pick your own adjective, even hour, more singular.

 

Or otherwise, more notable—and in my view both disinteresting and generally, wholly valueless—someone's merely, or certainly in main part, airing their "general" dissatisfaction with whatever more specific aspect of the either weather or climate.

 

 

This is a great point and I plan on thinking about it for several hours to come.  

[richard mann]

This is a great point and I plan on thinking about it for several hours to come.  

 

Be sure to let me know .. if you change your view.

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 32 this morning, so far its at 60. Will likely not reach 70, but still some warm weather to soak in today!

[BLI snowman]

Quite a week we have ahead. Looks like some sun and then maybe some rain. Possibly wind, too.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is insanely wet for next week.

 

Looks like a 5-day pineapple express situation beginning Wednesday and completely ruining Easter weekend on that run.

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF is insanely wet for next week.

 

Looks like a 5-day pineapple express situation beginning Wednesday and completely ruining Easter weekend on that run.

 

Can't have brunch and think about dead Jesus when it's raining!

[TT-SEA]

Can't have brunch and think about dead Jesus when it's raining!

 

Easter egg hunt dummy.

 

And according to the ECMWF that will be the 5th day of almost non-stop rain for Western WA.   

 

Miserable if that verifies.

[Deweydog]

Easter egg hunt dummy.

 

And according to the ECMWF that will be the 5th day of almost non-stop rain for Western WA.   

 

Miserable if that verifies.

 

Do it this weekend, dummy.