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2/23 - 2/25 S Plains/OHV Cutter


Tom
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As if I'm not being preoccupied tracking the big storm that's going to hit the Upper MW/GL's early next, I thought we should start a thread for next storm system coming out of of the deep south into the OHV in back-to-back fashion.  Iirc, this will be a first for the season tracking multiple storm systems in separate threads....this should keep our members busy this week!   Let's discuss....

The trends of late are showing this system developing into a slowly evolving deep southern wave across the Texarkana Region and tracking up thru the OHV with a stout Banana HP to our north.  

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0z EPS/GEFS are both suggesting this could end up being a good opportunity for a "share the wealth" scenario stretching into NE/KS all the way east into the Lower Lakes...

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0z GEFS looking better...

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0z Canadien...

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17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The ICON has a large swath of snow while taking the storm through the Ohio Valley.  The ICON did reasonably well with the last storm.

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GFS is way south.  But it's the GFS and it's terrible.   Icon did better with the last storm.  

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The early week storm will be shoving the surface front well to the south and east.  Deep moisture will have trouble getting back nw into Iowa late in the week.  It may be a 1-4" event for eastern Iowa.  Once again, locations south and east have a better shot at heavier snow.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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45 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Mine is 16 inches 15 have fallen in Feb.  18 is average for the year so it's been a good month.

About like our mid jan-mid feb last year. Won’t lie as yes, we had higher totals, but track was up our way last year, this year it’s south. Just crazy how narrow that band can get, and a matter of miles makes all the difference. Our snow removal equipment has sat idle minus the two skiffs of snow. At this rate I would prefer to just move onto spring work, but also know we need the moisture. Actually watered the trees and lawn today. Right now I’d love 1” of slow steady rain. Let’s see how the next two weeks play out. 

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0z Euro has been suggesting this to come in 2 waves....the 2nd stronger wave is looking better and I think that's where the GFS may be having issues.  The 0z UKIE is showing something similar to the Euro but farther SE.  Would like to see this all come out in one piece to deliver a bigger hit region wide.  Nonetheless, it does look like this will be a cold snowstorm and a longer duration snowfall event with winds off the lake that could enhance totals for SE WI/NE IL.

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It's difficult to get excited about a 2-3" snowfall followed by yet another week of nothing.  Active patterns just aren't delivering for my area this winter (since mid January).

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco. This pathetic excuse for a winter continues to kick us in the rear. My goodness. 
 

Wednesday through Thursday... The main upper trough will push out into the plains, but is expected to come out as an open wave with most of the better moisture once again shunted well southeast of our forecast area It will remain cold so the precipitation type will be snow, but moisture will be limited so snowfall amounts will likely again be rather light and just more of a nuisance. Friday through Sunday... The cold air should begin to moderate with highs in the 20s by Friday and then 30s and 40s by the weekend. No additional precipitation is expected after Thursday.

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Sheesh, the models are weak tonight.  We may end up with another dusting.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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0z Euro...what a crappy run...the only "good" thing about this system is the likelihood of a decent LES/Lehs signal for SE WI/NE IL.  Need this to phase a little better in future runs but that is not looking good ATM.  If this system ends up as forecast, it'll be the 3rd FEB storm to hit the same areas....mind you, the same areas which experience a "Snow Drought" till end of JAN.  I guess nature wanted to fill in the snow holes over in the eastern Sub this month....INDY and parts of IL had basically Zero snow till the GHD-3 storm.

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0z GEFS...

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0z EPS caved towards the GEFS (again?) now that we are inside 3 days....I swear, the GEFS have done a good job this season sniffing out the overall. snow shield in the D5+ range.  They have always been SE and steady with the main snow band across MO/C IL/IN.  The 0z EPS had been NW since yesterday's 12z run and tonight it flipped weaker and SE across the MW.

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Looking like my decadal ice storm is finally going to make it's grand entrance. Starting bid for ice totals are opening with the GFS throwing out .44"......

The others combine to make me want to quit looking at weather models. Lol. Saw some jabs at up to 2.00". If so, I'm glad spring is coming.

My trees were all so neat looking again finally, too. But like I told someone back in January. "Look at everything. It's too perfect. Just too good."

Also, we skipped a decade. 01/27/2009 was the monster here.

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26 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This storm looks to produces enough snow to get me to my season average.  6z GEFS would give Detroit, Chicago and myself a 2-4 inch snow.

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ORD needs just under 5” to hit 30” for the season…would be nice to be able to hit that mark by MAR 1st.  Let’s hope we can see better trends by tomorrow when the energy is over the West Coast.

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12z GFS actually looks pretty darn good for MBY on the south side of the KC metro, with about 4 inches.  Too bad it inflated totals last time by about 2.5 - 3 times, leaving a lot of room to be skeptical this time around.  Having said that, it did better last time than the Euro in terms of placement.  We'll see . . . 

NAVGEM looks really good for KC.  Ha.  

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS trying to tease me with a band just to my Southwest.  Has my county at 3-5" from north to south and the heavier band not far away.  I guess it is something.  Time will tell, but not holding my breath that anything occurs.  Canadian says 1" tops, Ukie has 2".

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19 minutes ago, james1976 said:

GFS has quite a wide area of light to moderate snow with this system. I thought it was gonna completely miss me.....which it very well could yet.

It has a bit of an overrunning event. I wish all the energy would come out in 1 piece.

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