snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Plenty of cool Julys out there during 3+ year Niña cycles following cool springs. 1975, 1955, 1999, 2000, and 2001 come to mind. Generally speaking it’s the state of Indo-Pacific convection that plays the largest role in how summer plays out up there. Developing Niños that emerged via the WPAC (or very east based Niñas/warm WPAC neutral years) tend to be the warmest w/ the most +PNA/+TNH, while years w/ large scale WPAC subsidence (often developing Niñas but also sometimes east-based Niños or neutral years w/ a cool WPAC) tend to be the coolest. This year has the background Walker Cell displaced/stretched pretty far west into the Indo-Pacific, which is more reflective of the “cool” summer analog composite. Though to what extent is obviously still TBD. I'm familiar. The ones listed are record type cold. I experienced all of them. I'm arguing for a pretty middle of the road July-August period. A record cold spring following a la niña winter equates to a middle of the road July-August period. The mean temperature in July will be 1-2 degrees below average at KGEG. August will be + or -1. September could go either way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 (edited) Summer 2016 was sooooo cold. Edited June 4, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Send us some sunshine. Don't hog it. Currently 54 and light rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Doiinko said: Wow, I can't even imagine something like that happening here. The first time I experienced shelf/roll clouds 6 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Summer 2016 was sooooo cold. I never thought 2016 was cold. July was colder than average at KGEG though. I experienced many of the coldest Julys. 2016 was weak sauce in comparison 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 Well lets just say the only July in recent years to end cool was in 2016. And that's using 1981-2010 averages. I'm pretty sure July 2011 was warmer in Klamath Falls. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 I believe Eugene set a record low in early July 2016. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 (edited) Last below average July at SLE was 2012. Average high was below normal in 2016, but the mean was slightly above normal. Edited June 4, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 Euro not nearly as wet as the GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said: The first time I experienced shelf/roll clouds Wow, those photos and clouds are really impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 53 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Forget June, that’s a wetter than average run in November or December. Also consider mountain snowpack is much higher than normal. If something like that verifies we could be looking at some pretty significant flood concerns. Worst case scenario would be a sudden flip to hot right afterwards and a rapid simultaneous snowmelt on all the major watersheds. Historically that's how we see the biggest flooding on the biggest rivers. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 13 hours ago, snow_wizard said: I think we stick a fork in this summer. We were due for a bad one, but this is pretty ridiculous. It already appears we could challenge June 1856 for awfulness. June 4 and I can already tell this will be worse than the summers that followed Tambora and Huaynaputina. Honestly farmers shouldn’t even bother planting anything this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 Last below average August at SLE was in 2000. Wow. Lol 3 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: July 2016 was pretty close to 1991-2020 normals, on the coolish side most places. We had some pretty big heatwaves in august 2016 though. Today’s record high at SLE is 99 set during a fairly brief but impressive heatwave in... 2016. Vanilla summer after a freakishly warm spring 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Last below average August at SLE was in 2000. Wow. Lol And that one was barely cool by historic standards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Last below average August at SLE was in 2000. Wow. Lol A July-August period like 2000 could be in the cards. It wasn't horrible. July 4th was 60s and drizzle. We need to get that monkey off of our backs. We're due. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: And that one was barely cool by historic standards. It was a vanilla summer. It was the mild salsa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: June 4 and I can already tell this will be worse than the summers that followed Tambora and Huaynaputina. Honestly farmers shouldn’t even bother planting anything this year. It's way too early to tell. Every June has crummy weather. Even last year had highs in the 50s up here. Many of the "experts" are saying that the Tongan volcanic eruption will do little to cool the earth's climate. They've been wrong before. Maybe we are at the start of a volcanic summer. I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow drift said: It was a vanilla summer. It was the mild salsa. What's a vanilla summer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Omg the 12z was wet!!! Nice Chevy! White is a good choice for the cooker that is coming in August. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 Just now, Mr Marine Layer said: What's a vanilla summer? Uneventful and normal 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Welcome to the Jungle.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, snow drift said: It's way too early. Every June has crummy weather. Even last year had highs in the 50s up here. I was visiting my brother in Seattle last year in early June. Stayed from June 4-7. Shivered my a** off on the waterfront and saw a PSCZ (although I wasn’t in it). If you had told me what was coming in three weeks… 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 66 here feels humid AF though. 1 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 48 minutes ago, snow drift said: I'm familiar. The ones listed are record type cold. I experienced all of them. I'm arguing for a pretty middle of the road July-August period. A record cold spring following a la niña winter equates to a middle of the road July-August period. The mean temperature in July will be 1-2 degrees below average at KGEG. August will be + or -1. September could go either way. Not necessarily. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: 66 here feels humid AF though. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: I was visiting my brother in Seattle last year in early June. Stayed from June 4-7. Shivered my a** off on the waterfront and saw a PSCZ (although I wasn’t in it). If you had told me what was coming in three weeks… It was in the 80s and 90s from June 1-4 over here. June 6th made it to just 56. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Not necessarily. Fair enough.There are exceptions to everything. Pin my predictions, and we'll see in a few months. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: I was visiting my brother in Seattle last year in early June. Stayed from June 4-7. Shivered my a** off on the waterfront and saw a PSCZ (although I wasn’t in it). If you had told me what was coming in three weeks… No doubt... the first half of June is absolutely notorious for wet and cloudy weather regardless of ENSO or anything else. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 minute ago, snow drift said: It was in the 80s and 90s from June 1-4 over here. June 6th made it to just 56. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It's much easier to tolerate consistently cool weather. 30 and 40 degree drops are rough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, Phil said: I was so hoping you’d see this 1 3 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said: Wearing the memory goggles What an awesome thunderstorm outbreak... Salem got annihilated! Eugene a pretty sad shafting. Albany got squarely pegged by that one mean cell. Where do you find these archived storm reports, radar, and svr tsm watch zones? I'd love to flip through different outbreaks on my own time. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: No doubt... the first half of June is absolutely notorious for wet and cloudy weather regardless of ENSO or anything else. Every June has its gloom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, snow drift said: Every June has its gloom. That's why they have a name for it. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: What an awesome thunderstorm outbreak... Salem got annihilated! Eugene a pretty sad shafting. Albany got squarely pegged by that one mean cell. Where do you find these archived storm reports, radar, and svr tsm watch zones? I'd love to flip through different outbreaks on my own time. As for the watches and reports, SPC lets you search for a date. They're archived back to the late 90's I think. The radar is off a free program (takes longer to order data, but for free its great), you can download it to your computer. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/wct/ 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I was so hoping you’d see this I took the bait. Funny enough it’s much less humid here as dews have mixed into the upper 30s. Feels really weird lol..temp is 85°F but it’s almost like room temperature in the shade. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: I took the bait. Funny enough it’s much less humid here as dews have mixed into the upper 30s. Feels really weird lol..temp is 85°F but it’s almost like room temperature in the shade. It feels pretty humid by PNW standards. Then again last year I experienced it being 106 with a DP of 72 and that was probably one of the most awful experiences of my life. 1 4 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted June 4, 2022 Report Share Posted June 4, 2022 This guy gets a weenie tag for mowing the lawn during a tornado. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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