On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Cascadia_Wx]

Eerily similar progression to June 2021 overall. Please be wrong.

[Deweydog]

Seven months ago right now we were seeing runs which had us to worrying about cold weather damage to infrastructure.

Dynamic!

[Kayla]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Eerily similar progression to June 2021 overall. Please be wrong.

Was just going to say but didn't want to say...

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

30C @850mb...110F not out of the questions with that.

Yeah... this is a straight up terrible run.   Really frustrating that we are within a week and looking at these ridiculous temps again.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At some point we probably need to start getting used to this.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Eerily similar progression to June 2021 overall. Please be wrong.

From a teleconnection standpoint, we’d need to see the Aleutian cyclone action dig quite a bit further south. None of the models have shown that as of yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty sad to be actively rooting for this as the "cool" outcome. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I wonder if the region’s vegetation will be able to handle another widespread scorching event a second year in a row. Feels like a nightmare.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM would give the Willamette Valley 3 days of highs in the 100-103 range. Probably the best case scenario at this point. 

[Kayla]

Ughhh, this is a HORRIBLE run. Just doesn't budge.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well Tim and Randy got their wish. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

A run like this makes me want to go somewhere else. Not sure where since the whole globe is on fire.

[Deweydog]

I need someone to blame. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well Tim and Randy got their wish. 

Sort of feeling sick to my stomach right now.    Never want to experience an event like last June again.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

A run like this makes me want to go somewhere else. Not sure where since the whole globe is on fire.

Yeah, sad fact is we still have it comparatively pretty good. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, sad fact is we still have it comparatively pretty good. 

This spring though  

[Doinko]

What was the leadup like to the June 2022 heatwave? Did the GFS or Euro catch on first?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I need someone to blame. 

We have two easy scapegoats on here. lol

 

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sort of feeling sick to my stomach right now.    Never want to experience an event like last June again.   

Why? What was it at your house like 105? Not that bad. 

[RentonHill]

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... this is a straight up terrible run.   Really frustrating that we are within a week and looking at these ridiculous temps again.   

You know you love it.

[Phil]

This is an appalling error. Geesh.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

You know you love it.

Imagine how warm lake Sammamish could get

[TT-SEA]

I was thinking about Phil predicting cold troughing in late last June when he started predicting the same thing a couple weeks ago... and thought there is no way this can happen again.   Well f*ck.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Not sure where to go from here. Hoping the EPS is at least a notch or two more reasonable. If not might just need a break.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

You know you love it.

Can't describe how much I hate what the ECMWF is showing.  Pretty far cry from upper 70s and low 80s.   And destructive as hell.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking about Phil predicting cold troughing in late June last when he started predicting the same thing a couple weeks ago... and thought there is no way this can happen again.   Well f*ck.

Good point. I think we have our scapegoat. 

On the other hand by mid June last year I was correctly predicting it would be the warmest of all-time. I should start running some numbers for July. It would seem ludicrous to think we would have a shot after last July, but who knows. This one will go in the patheon with 2021, 2018, 2017, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2009... Well you get the point. 

[Doinko]

I won't be there to experience a heatwave if it happens thankfully, but I was really hoping that the PNW could avoid one this summer. There's still time for it to trend cooler I guess

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You know you love it.

I love it!

I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum.

Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Best case scenario right now is probably hoping the GEFS and EPS meet in the middle around 22-24C over the Willamette Valley. Still low 100s, but we are pretty used to that. 

[Phil]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not sure where to go from here. Hoping the EPS is at least a notch or two more reasonable. If not might just need a break.

So far the operational Euro on it’s own. 

Would only take a minor westward shift in the ridge axis (which is what analog pools favor) to neuter the heat substantially. CMC type solution still very possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I love it!

I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum.

Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be…

As I frequently explain to IBR Chris. It's not really an extreme or interesting if it happens 2-3 times a year. If we had "historic" arctic outbreaks 2-3 times every winter at some point they would become less exciting. 

[Cloud]

Goodness.  This is pure trash. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

So far the operational Euro on it’s own. 

Would only take a minor westward shift in the ridge axis (which is what analog pools favor) to neuter the heat substantially. CMC type solution still very possible.

Cold second half of July still on the table?

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't describe how much I hate what the ECMWF is showing.  Pretty far cry from upper 70s and low 80s.   And destructive as hell.

A 2021 repeat would be preferable for you to a 1954 repeat though. Okay to admit it. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

As I frequently explain to IBR Chris. It's not really an extreme or interesting if it happens 2-3 times a year. If we had "historic" arctic outbreaks 2-3 times every winter at some point they would become less exciting. 

It's just so hard on everything and everyone.   Can't find any interest or excitement in that.   Ruins summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's just so hard on everything and everyone.   Can't find any interest or excitement in that.   Ruins summer.

It's hard for me to believe you because I hate heat and I don't even think 3 super hot days necessarily "ruin" summer. 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I love it!

I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum.

Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be…

I enjoy extremes too. Wouldn’t mind heat/humidity if it were transient with cool shots in between.

But it looks like several 80+ lows coming up here over the next week, and no sub-70°F lows in sight. Nothing enjoyable about that when it never changes.

 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We don't have many slugs here and never big ones. But that could also be because of our two dozen free ranging ducks. 

Yeah my place is a bit of a safe haven for slugs lol! However my Aussie is an amazing rodent killer…He puts all of the mice he kills in one location in the yard and the moles in a different spot, but I have never actually seen the process until yesterday. He was laying in the same spot yesterday but facing towards the junipers in front of the deck and he was intensely watching the area by the rose bush, then he slowly got up and stalked his prey before pouncing on the mouse and crushing it’s skull (you could hear the crunch) then he licked it a few times and took it to the spot in the yard. Then he repeated the process two more times in a span of 20min! 

[Cloud]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't describe how much I hate what the ECMWF is showing.  Pretty far cry from upper 70s and low 80s.   And destructive as hell.

We give you a lot of but no reason to doubt this statement either. Pretty sure you've said multiple times you dislike these type of weather due to its destructive nature. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I love it!

I’m a sucker for extremes and will never apologize for it. I am subhuman scum.

Nice thing is, six months to the day after last June’s inferno we were seeing decadal cold in the region. Six months from next week it will be…

There hasn't been anything really approaching last June from a winter weather perspective since probably January 1950. So it's not even remotely equitable.