On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Marine layer in no rush to come inland tonight.    Guessing just broken clouds in the morning and another stellar summer day on tap.   

There was no marine layer up here today.  But there was a pleasant sea breeze.  Sunny and 75 this afternoon. 
 

Arctic front around day 10 looks delayed on the 0z GFS

[NWbyNW]

Reached 72F as the high today.  Currently 57F. Days like this should be what summer is, not a fleeting memory. 

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Marine layer in no rush to come inland tonight.    Guessing just broken clouds in the morning and another stellar summer day on tap.   

There's literally no threat of you having to suffer through the inhumanity of a mostly cloudy day any time soon, Tim.

Like the vast majority of the past month, it's looking like near wall to wall sunshine every afternoon.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

There was no marine layer up here today.  But there was a pleasant sea breeze.  Sunny and 75 this afternoon. 
 

Arctic front around day 10 looks delayed on the 0z GFS

It was quite close... I was watching the weather up in Bellingham today and it was pretty cloudy in the Vancouver area for a good part of the day while it was sunny south of the border.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

There's literally no threat of you having to suffer through the inhumanity of a mostly cloudy day any time soon, Tim.

Like the vast majority of the past month, it's looking like near wall to wall sunshine every afternoon.

That is nice.    At least we get one month of the year where sun is the default.  That is not asking for much.  Last weekend was basically cloudy.    This weekend should be mostly sunny.   

[GHweatherChris]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We have a thermometer.   But I go by the stations on either side of my house between 800-1,000 feet as we have discussed a million times.   It was 76 or 77 here today.  

I know it was too warm to eat dinner on the deck without positioning the umbrella just right so we could all be in the shade.    

The only thermometer you have ever talked about owning is your car temp reading, that doesn't count.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

The only thermometer you have ever talked about owning is your car temp reading, that doesn't count.

We have standard thermometer as well.    It was 77 degrees at the station just down the road to the west and 76 degrees at the station just down the road to the east.   If you want to spend all night debating what it was specifically in my sunny backyard then go ahead!    I don't really care... it was lovely.    Probably 76.5   

[TT-SEA]

Canadian does not show much of a break down through day 10.

GFS shows a break down and then the ridge pops right back up. 

[TT-SEA]

Left the bases loaded in the 8th... so close to breaking it open.     Would have been fun to see a go ahead grand slam with a sell out crowd.

[Deweydog]

Severe clear!

[MossMan]

53!

[Deweydog]

1!!!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

1!!!

I hate the Astros.

[DareDuck]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hate the Astros.

I don’t think I’ve ever agreed with you more. F*** the Asterisks. 

[Cloud]

The GFS is overdoing the heat so we’ll have to see. It called for a mid to upper-70s for SEA today and we were not even close. Euro was more accurate. 
 

I think we shave off 3-4 degrees to what the GFS is showing. Would still be in the 90s for next week. 

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hate the Astros.

Easy to hate when they’re always really good.

Edited July 23, 2022 by Deweydog

[Cloud]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hate the Astros.

I knew the streak would come to an end this series. I was hoping to at least get to 15. Oh well! Focus on winning this series now

came out very flat after the All star break and no Julio hurts.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The GFS is overdoing the heat so we’ll have to see. It called for a mid to upper-70s for SEA today and we were not even close. Euro was more accurate. 
 

I think we shave off 3-4 degrees to what the GFS is showing. Would still be in the 90s for next week. 

I got up to 77

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I knew the streak would come to an end this series. I was hoping to at least get to 15. Oh well! Focus on winning this series now

came out very flat after the All star break and no Julio hurts.

Too much down time this week... too much time to think.   Hopefully now that the pressure of the streak is gone they can get back into a relaxed groove again.  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I got up to 77

The GFS output for SEA is often quite accurate for the EPSL away from the water.    So in that regard the much maligned warm bias GFS output actually provides good information for out here.

[MossMan]

52! 

[Phil]

Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

I’ll be in Tampa FL so it won’t matter for me. 

[TT-SEA]

61.   Some clouds building back from the Cascades on the IR loop now.  

[Doinko]

Just now, Phil said:

Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

Cool August?!?!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well well well, clown range GEFS looking a lot different!

I’ll be in Tampa FL so it won’t matter for me. 

Was just gonna post that it gives me a little bit of mental strength to get through this if we don’t see endless cuck bashing 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging.

No

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Was just gonna post that it gives me a little bit of mental strength to get through this if we don’t see endless cuck bashing 

I posted it earlier today... but the 12Z EPS looked similar around day 11 and 12.    

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

In agreement with its operational run at that same time... which then went right back to ridging.

Operational is much warmer at the same time. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

No

GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom.   Good agreement. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I posted it earlier today... but the 12Z EPS looked similar around day 11 and 12.    

When are you in MN again? Models trending warmer again there in early August.

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom.   Good agreement. 

Ensemble mean is cooler.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

When are you in MN again? Models trending warmer again there in early August.

Good.   Next week looks a little too chilly.   Mid 80s is good for being on a lake in MN.

[Deweydog]

Cold

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Ensemble mean is cooler.

Same general pattern.    Its a clear ridge break down on both.    EPS showed it too.   

[Phil]

That’s actually pretty different.

Operational GFS has 2 cutoff ULLs and 2 EPAC hurricanes doing a fujiwhara dance..seems unlikely but who knows.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

That’s actually pretty different.

Operational GFS has 2 cutoff ULLs and 2 EPAC hurricanes doing a fujiwhara dance..seems unlikely but who knows.

When you are analyzing the specific details of the GFS and GEFS at almost 300 hours out... you are probably wasting your time.   The 12Z runs will likely be entirely different.   

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

When you are analyzing the specific details of the GFS and GEFS at almost 300 hours out... you are probably wasting your time.   The 12Z runs will likely be entirely different.   

Lol, I’m just bored dude. Hot weather gives me insomnia.

But in all seriousness that solution with the EPAC hurricanes is probably whack. As for the rest, I have no idea.

[Phil]

CMC ensembles have the early August trough signal now as well. Interesting.

[RentonHill]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS at 276 hours on top... GEFS on the bottom.   Good agreement. 

I meant to say - no!!!!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

CMC ensembles have the early August trough signal now as well. Interesting.

Not really that surprising... obviously it won't stay hot forever.    Looks like more of a return to normal for awhile on the CMC ensembles.   That would be nice.  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I meant to say - no!!!!

Good news is that the GEFS does not go back to hot immediately afterwards like the GFS.

[Deweydog]

Euro still intent on melting the line.

[Phil]

Warm overnight lows have been absurd lately. Seemingly everywhere. Still can’t believe those 19th/early 20th century low temps were possible.

Even with a coolish pattern (up until this week, at least), since June 29th it’s only dropped below 70°F twice at DCA.

And one of the times was in the middle of a t-storm microburst, after which it rebounded into the 70s and warmed all night despite clears skies.

I’d think it was UHI, but even awful summers like 2011 and 2012 had plenty of lows in the 60s, and UHI was already maxed by then.

Something is just different now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I have a bad feeling the EC is going to be right. We almost always overperform like Peter North for high temps here.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Warm overnight lows have been absurd lately. Seemingly everywhere. Still can’t believe those 19th/early 20th century low temps were possible.

Even with a coolish pattern (up until this week, at least), since June 29th it’s only dropped below 70°F twice at DCA.

And one of the times was in the middle of a t-storm microburst, after which it rebounded into the 70s and warmed all night despite clears skies.

I’d think it was UHI, but even awful summers like 2011 and 2012 had plenty of lows in the 60s, and UHI was already maxed by then.

Something is just different now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

41 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

No

Yeah, I don’t know why those 500mb height anomaly maps are constantly posted. I prefer the spaghetti charts since they show more than just a cherry picked snapshot at a given frame.

 

The operational GFS was obviously a huge outlier compared to the GEFS in he long range. There’s no argument there. Not saying that’s what will happen, just talking about tonight’s run of course.

[RentonHill]

So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast?

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast?

No offshore flow to speak of. Each day will have a diurnal component with minor reversals possible at the usual suspects like Kelso, Corvallis, Shelton… Dew points will probably drift well into the 60’s at some point.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

So the onshore component is going to help with fire risk with this, right? Like it’s not gonna be a raging east wind atleast?

Yeah Mark Nelsen on his blog mentioned that the fire danger won't be that bad, but overnight temps will be warm because of humidity.