Timmy Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 12Z ECMWF ar 240 hours... good for the mountains at least. looks a lot like the gfs, i like that kind of agreement! now if we could all just get along! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 looks a lot like the gfs, i like that kind of agreement! now if we could all just get along!It happened before, then the Canadians had to throw some disagreement in the mix. The Canadians started to woo the Euros, then the Americans slowly played sheep and followed everyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Really like seeing all that cold air towards the end in AK. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Really like seeing all that cold air towards the end in AK. At 168 hours? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 It happened before, then the Canadians had to throw some disagreement in the mix. The Canadians started to woo the Euros, then the Americans slowly played sheep and followed everyone else.Ignore the Canadian(s)... 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WS Snow Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Exciting indeed. Waiting on DJ to verify model countdown excitement... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 To be fair, I wouldn't designate this as a trend quite yet. For comparison, here is the 00z ECMWF for that Thurs. Trough is a lot sharper on the 12z, ridge offshore is a lot more consolidated. Definitely a step in the right direction though.Agreed... One thing to note is both the ECMWF and GFS are showing very similar large scale outcomes for the last 2 or 3 days now (showing a good pattern for us in PNW). Yes, we can not worry about the details but there has been a favorable and consistent trend with both models to setup what could be a good pattern for us. EVEN if it is not epic cold there is a clear sign that maritime cold may be present which can also surprise us and work out better than your run of the mill north to south arctic outbreak. Specially if you are wanting snow. Is it a lock... Nope. BUT there is some consistency and it looks good so far. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChilliwackBCwx Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Lol! yes what do we know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 The things we get excited about Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 The things we get excited about It isn't likely, although it's still possible, going to be the worstest December ever. Jump on board!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 The things we get excited about I think the overreaction scares cold airmasses away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 One thing is for sure, one cold run is a trend on the forum. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 One thing is for sure, one cold run is a trend on the forum. Snow @ 384 hours just doesn't have the same ring to it anymore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I agree that things are looking favorable for a chance at some colder air after the 10th and it's nice that both the ECMWF and GFS show some agreement for the pattern setting up. I just didn't want the idea to get out there that this is a clear and definitive trend. Hard to call it that with just a handful of decent-looking models. We are just starting to get into the timeframe where we can watch this develop on the Euro so it will be interesting to see where it goes from here. At least there is hope and we are not looking at a complete blowtorch like last December. I totally agree and good points! YEAH we get burned more often than not but I believe that Epic will happen (some day)... SO, as Jim shared yesterday "we got to start from somewhere"... NOW, just keep'n it real and emotions in check is key, which you shared. I SO agree. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Snow @ 384 hours just doesn't have the same ring to it anymore.Hmm a lot sooner than 384 base on current runs... BUT yeah I get what you are saying and feel the same way. At least there is tangible hope and not a total blowtorch showing in the models like last year. Last year sucked about now. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I think the overreaction scares cold airmasses away. As does pessimism Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 One thing is for sure, one cold run is a trend on the forum. LOL.. true.. Please note: this has been showing up for days now. I posted on it about 3 days ago and DJ alluded to it much sooner. Agreed note a "trend" as some may see it but it is something and not short lived and not backing off (yet). Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I think the overreaction scares cold airmasses away. lol... Maybe... Then again maybe not... 50/50? Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 According to Phil that is impossible.Just to avoid confusion, I was referring to Arctic air, as denotated by the polar jet. Cool, NW flow is very, very possible. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just to avoid confusion, I was specifically referring to Arctic potential. Cool, NW flow is very, very possible.#coveringyourass 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 The things we get excited aboutWe are simple-minded creatures. Offer something better for us weather related in a weather forum? I am all eyes... BRING IT!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just to avoid confusion, I was referring to Arctic air, as denotated by the polar jet. Cool, NW flow is very, very possible.Which is what we are seeing primarily on current runs. This can also bode well for us (it is holds) Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Just to avoid confusion, I was referring to Arctic air, as denotated by the polar jet. Cool, NW flow is very, very possible.Doesn't look like we are about to tap into the arctic at day 10 on the Euro to me, but we are getting excited about -3C 850mb temps. I wish you luck if it does get cold here later this month. I would expect many shots coming your way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Doesn't look like we are about to tap into the arctic at day 10 on the Euro to me, but we are getting excited about -3C 850mb temps. I wish you luck if it does get cold here later this month. I would expect many shots coming your way.Haha, personally I'd be happy if my call for a nationwide torch for December busted, even if my region doesn't get in on the action. I hate zonal flow. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 #coveringyourass #coveringmybases #dejavu Well, the PV is officially both the largest and strongest on record for this date. It's also fully coupled from the middle troposphere, all the way through the stratosphere, through the mesosphere, up to the mesopause. So yeah, no Arctic air for anyone through the remainder of 2015. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Doesn't look like we are about to tap into the arctic at day 10 on the Euro to me, but we are getting excited about -3C 850mb temps. I wish you luck if it does get cold here later this month. I would expect many shots coming your way. Mainly the GFS... But the Euro is showing the same pattern, the GFS just goes out farther... It shows it starting (the setup begins) around hour 240ish - this is what people are talking about... EXAMPLE: Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 My definition of zonal flow = quick moving systems and variable weather. Is this correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Mainly the GFS... But the Euro is showing the same pattern, the GFS just goes out farther... It shows it starting (the setup begins) around hour 240ish - this is what people are talking about... EXAMPLE:Screen Shot 2015-12-01 at 12.20.20 PM.pngYea, I know, some promising trends for sure. Since we are analyzing the 12Z GFS post hour 240 its probably worth mentioning that it doesn't show any snow for the Puget Sound lowlands. Too warm and definitely too warm when precip is falling. 925mb temps are mostly above freezing the entire time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Looking at the long range ensembles, the GFS is clearly advertising a much more promising pattern than the GEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Yea, I know, some promising trends for sure. Since we are analyzing the 12Z GFS post hour 240 its probably worth mentioning that it doesn't show any snow for the Puget Sound lowlands. Too warm and definitely too warm when precip is falling. 925mb temps are mostly above freezing the entire time. Details this far out is not what I am focused on personally. There would be very low snow levels and the potential is there. Stay Tuned and we can revisit this within 3 to 5 days if it materializes. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Looking at the long range ensembles, the GFS is clearly advertising a much more promising pattern than the GEMgem-ens_z500a_namer_49.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.pngGive it time to catch up. It is Canadian... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 At 168 hours? It doesn't get all that cold until days 9-10. Then it's some serious vodka cold. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 To be fair, I wouldn't designate this as a trend quite yet. For comparison, here is the 00z ECMWF for that Thurs. Trough is a lot sharper on the 12z, ridge offshore is a lot more consolidated. Definitely a step in the right direction though. Yes, the 12z was better than the 0z. But the 0z was also better than the previous Euro runs. Two steps in the right direction...it's a baby trend. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Ignore the Canadian(s)... There are Canadians on this forum? 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 #coveringyourass I just want to know how much money he laid down in Vegas on warmest December in U.S. history. #plentyoftimeforthatstilltohappenneverunderestimatewarmth 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 There are Canadians on this forum?Yeah, Hi. 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Yeah, Hi. The Dallas Cowboys have a quarterback? Hi, Mr. Canadian Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Yeah, Hi.We Love our Canadians --- just not the "Canadian" Just ignore Front Ranger he has a memory of nat. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 18z is running... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 We Love our Canadians --- just not the "Canadian" Just ignore Front Ranger he has a memory of nat. I'm also as engaging as a frozen turd. I'm sure Canadians are familiar with those, as that's how the first hockey game started. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.