12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Geos]

How close are you to the lake?

 

I'm expecting a mix bag of sleet/wet snow/freezing rain in the morning changing fairly quickly to a very cold rain here in Evanston. I'll be pleasantly surprised by any kind of actual accumulation here.

 

I'm not super familiar with the intricacies of the climate here, but I feel like relying on low level cold with a 40 mph wind blowing off the 45 degree lake is a recipe for disappointment.

 

I'm 4.5 miles from the lake. As long as the CAA can stay strong enough, it can counteract the marine influence. One thing I don't have much of is the urban heat island effect. So for example if it is 32° here at 4.5 miles from the lake, in Cook County at that distance, it could be 35°. All depends on track and whether or not the CAA is strong enough.

[Geos]

RPM model for N IL has precip falling as snow initially from I-88/80 on north, then a mixed bag, then back to snow around 6:00pm Monday.  Looked like for the most part S WI was mainly snow...hmmm...

 

It was that way last night too. Hasn't budged much.

 

Speaking of CAA, that's starting to kick in now. Winds are N up here.

[jcwxguy]

Not sure what to think of this unless sleet is counted as snow

[james1976]

Just got hom from family stuff. Wow, all of IA in a watch! Looks like my area is gonna be mostly snow as of now but DMX is still hammering out p-type issues.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS seems a little E and S from previous runs--- just a little. at least in Ia.

 

[hlcater]

GFS won't give in euro will be interesting

[james1976]

Couple 12" lollipops showing up in IA on this run. Nice

[Grizzcoat]

DSM 00z GFS

MON 18Z 28-DEC  -2.2    -3.4    1010      89      97    0.22     553     545   
TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.9    -3.5    1006      92      96    0.62     543     538   
TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -2.9    -3.9    1009      92      94    0.03     547     540   
TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -4.2    -5.6    1015      93      87    0.01     550     539

[winterfreak]

That would be one hell of a mini snowstorm here on the GFS. Six plus in six hours.

[Geos]

GFS went over Chicago again.

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GFS went over Chicago again.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_9.png

 

Several models are baby stepping their way SE.  I was about to give up on significant snow earlier today with most models progging the low to go through or NW of MKE.

[gabel23]

Wow I hope the gfs is out for lunch, just won't budge! Long live king euro and go huskers!!

[bainbridgekid]

Really strong baraclinic boundary currently from Oklahoma all the way to Vermont.

 

Too bad there isn't more cold air to the North of it because there would be some really heavy snow.

[WBadgersW]

Im liking where the models are heading. Hopefully this slight SE trend will keep bleeding.

[Geos]

Several models are baby stepping their way SE.  I was about to give up on significant snow earlier today with most models progging the low to go through or NW of MKE.

 

It's funny, now the NAM is one of the coldest for here.

 

Here's a snowfall map for ya.

 

[jaster220]

LOL @ San Angelo TX with a 13 headline list - everything but a heat advisory I think. Crazy plains states

[Money]

Ggem takes it along the wi/il boarder at 60 towards Racine

[ToastedRavs]

Haven't seen much discussion on start time. If I am not mistaken, the Euro is starting things here earlier than the GFS, at least here in Des Moines area

By at least four hours, maybe six

[winterfreak]

It's funny, now the NAM is one of the coldest for here.

 

Here's a snowfall map for ya.

Hey I like this map hahaha.

 

PWsnowfallGFS0z.png

[Geos]

Ggem takes it along the wi/il boarder at 60 towards Racine

 

Now it's just the EURO that doesn't go through the area.

Here's the Kuchera GFS snowfall map. Based on actual ratios.

 

[winterfreak]

Whoops not sure what happened there.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

It's funny, now the NAM is one of the coldest for here.

 

Here's a snowfall map for ya.

 

PWsnowfallGFS0z.png

 

Take it fwiw (probably based on earlier models) but local mets are going with about an inch of snow in the Milwaukee area, yet the freezing rain amounts are also higher inland toward the areas with higher snow totals like Madison.  Unless most of the precip is falling as sleet or rain, doesn't sound right.

[Money]

Anyone have the ggem snowfall maps?

[hlcater]

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015122700/iowa/cmc_snow_acc_iowa_11.pngCMC snowfall lol

[ToastedRavs]

Looks to me on the Canadian that heavier snow bands east of Des Moines, more in line with the GFS...right near James and aplington

[ToastedRavs]

If that Canadian map verifies, that would be the highest amount ever in Iowa in a single day for snowfall!!!!

[bainbridgekid]

If that Canadian map verifies, that would be the highest amount ever in Iowa in a single day for snowfall!!!!

WxBell snowfall maps tend to count sleet as snow.

[ToastedRavs]

Lol. I know, Bainbridge. But the pivotal weather map may do so as well because its showing 22" amounts

[jaster220]

WxBell snowfall maps tend to count sleet as snow.

 

It's too bad really. They came out with really nice looking maps, and they end up being the new clownage/weenie maps in these marginal situations.

[Money]

FYI ukie came way SE

[Money]

Ukie looks a lot like the ggem

[winterfreak]

NWS office doesn't have a clue here. This set up is a nightmare.

[ToastedRavs]

Interesting to note that the axis of heaviest snow totals are almost identical on Canadian and GFS. Different amounts, but the area almost identical

[hlcater]

euro is all by itself now

[Money]

UKIE

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif

[Grizzcoat]

Uk Met total qpf

 

[Money]

Here was 12z at HR 72

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

[Money]

UKIE HR 48

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

GGEM HR 48

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

 

NAM HR 48

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/nam_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

[hlcater]

nearly the same spot, add the GFS as well, its in that crowd as well.

[gabel23]

I have a bad feeling not gonna lie, tough to believe euro would out do the other 4 models.....