12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Money]

NAM even trended E/SE compared to previous runs. Think Euro will come in a tad SE as well. NW trend has def. stopped.

[hlcater]

Meanwhile our good ol' friend GFS has stayed with the same track for several runs now

[Money]

GFS HR 48

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

[NH4NU]

I have a bad feeling not gonna lie, tough to believe euro would out do the other 4 models.....

 

Euro has stayed consistent the entire week. So what IF the Euro comes in with no change does that mean it is right? 

[jcwxguy]

Fwiw, the 12z euro para was a little se as well

[Money]

GGEM Ensembles are locked in. Very little spread

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015122700_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_048.png

[ToastedRavs]

If the Euro goes se as well, Jim Flowers in Omaha may have some crow to eat. Granted, have to give it to him for sticking with it for so long, but right now it looks like Omaha may miss the heaviest of snows. Who knows, I may be chomping on some crow in 48 hours

[Geos]

This inching towards the SE might be in response to the intense convection. Convection has a tendency to push or pull the baroclinic zone farther south than guidance.

[Money]

GGEM painting 23 inches of snow in eastern Iowa at 10:1 ratios. That would be 2.3 IN QPF it's showing and over 1.4-1.5 QPF in S. WI. That's insane. 

[Jaycee]

Looks like Iowa is golden once again. Boy I would feel bad for Nebraska. I think I'm already out of this in SE MN, and looks like Minneapolis could bust on totals as well.

 

This guy knows what's up:

 

https://youtu.be/7pJyfbZyKLo

[Money]

GEM also gets the low down to 987. Strongest I have seen yet

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/PT_PN_045_0000.gif

[Money]

Another one showing pretty good consistency over the last 3 GGEM runs

 

http://meteocentre.com/tracking/gemglb_amer_00/pres_short.gif

[Grizzcoat]

This pattern bleeds a big snow event for those that suffered record monthly precip (rain) in just 36 hours 2 weeks ago. Suffer enough, and you too will see heavy snow after +RA in this pattern. Better chances in S.WI and CHI area as the central west plains (NE) looks to dry out and cool down as winter moves East.

[clintbeed1993]

Looks like we might once again be screwed in Nebraska.  Sigh, same story different winter.

[bainbridgekid]

This is certainly a very dynamic storm.

 

Not sure about accuracy because this station is having issues with missing data, but Clovis New Mexico is reporting thundersnow and a ridiculous wind gust of 82 mph. 

 

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KCVN.html

[Money]

Large tornado struck Dallas area

 

8 confirmed dead and I guess it's expected to rise . Over 60-65 trailorpark homes completely destroyed

[Scott26]

GGEM painting 23 inches of snow in eastern Iowa at 10:1 ratios. That would be 2.3 IN QPF it's showing and over 1.4-1.5 QPF in S. WI. That's insane. 

It's interesting that the GGEM is showing significantly more QPF then any model in the cold sector. With a storm this dynamic you have to take in account there will likely be convective snow banding which may produce some of these heavier totals. I think offices will begin to forecast this once there is more certainty where exactly the heaviest banding will occur.

[Money]

82 mph winds being reported in New Mexico from this system

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The hi-res models NMM and ARW should be just getting into view now.  Any indication from those yet of what's to come?

[Money]

Looks like euro came SE a bit?

[Money]

The hi-res models NMM and ARW should be just getting into view now. Any indication from those yet of what's to come?

ARW at 48 is similar to gfs/ ukie etc with a low just NW of STL

 

Nmm is way west like the nam

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is not the hero--- falling in line with King GFS-- trending SE.

[gosaints]

Looks like euro came SE a bit?

For sure compared to 0z last night. 994 northern mo at hour 48

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like euro came SE a bit?

Slightly, but still well NW of the GFS/GEM at hour 48.

 

[gosaints]

Slightly, but still well NW of the GFS/GEM at hour 48.

Yes still lots a seperation.

[jcwxguy]

.

[Money]

For sure compared to 0z last night. 994 northern mo at hour 48

Yeah looks like it will go through eastern Iowa into central wi

 

Def SE trend still on western end of guidance but I think you have to lean more towards gfs/cmc now

[NH4NU]

Slightly, but still well NW of the GFS/GEM at hour 48.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_3.png

This looks great for eastern Nebraska

[jcwxguy]

..

[WildWisconsinWeather]

One has to keep in mind that the Euro does not tend to do well or indicate convection well even in the near/short term, so I suppose it makes sense that if convection is causing this SE shift it would be the last to shift.

[GDR]

Which model is going to poop the bed euro or GFS and the rest?

[Money]

Hmmm

 

Jcw if you could post text output for here that would be awesome

[bud2380]

I can't believe how little agreement there is amongst the models. Euro just won't budge. It did shift a bit east but kept the heaviest snow much further west than the other global models

[hlcater]

for me, I'm on the GFS side of things 65-35 after latest euro SE shift

[gabel23]

..

JC, could you post the digital output for that? It looks like 10+ for a lot of us.....You have to like the consistency! 

[jcwxguy]

Hope euro is right

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is caving. You don't see it move that much late in the game-- when the GFS held it's own.-- without something being amiss.  Just like it did in the NOV storm. (Euro busted big time about this time frame out ) Highest snow totals will run along I-35 more then they will I-29.

[Money]

I can't believe how little agreement there is amongst the models. Euro just won't budge. It did shift a bit east but kept the heaviest snow much further west than the other global models

Yeah it's pretty pathetic

 

Wonder what NWS offices do. Wait til 12z tomorrow and hope things get in better agreement ?

[NH4NU]

I'm confused by all of this shifting talk? The heaviest snow band has not shifted hardly at all in days with the Euro.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Euro is caving. You don't see it move that much late in the game-- when the GFS held it's own.-- without something being amiss.  Just like it did in the NOV storm. (Euro busted big time about this time frame out ) Highest snow totals will run along I-35 more then they will I-29.

 

It barely moved at all with the main snow band (and still tracks through E Iowa/C Wisconsin).  It hasn't caved yet, but I think it likely will.