12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[ToastedRavs]

It's almost like Iowa and Nebraska folks rooting against each other! Where have we seen that before and what was the result!?! Lol. And before I get accused of being a Hawks fan, I am from the east coast originally so no allegiances. But, go Hawks! (& GFS and Canadian)

[NH4NU]

Except two days ago the euro took the low into central il

That run still had the heaviest snow band set right up and down MO river did it not?

[jcwxguy]

12z nam, 10 to 1 ratio clown map

[Money]

That run still had the heaviest snow band set right up and down MO river did it not?

No

[bud2380]

I'm not rooting for or against, I'm just calling it like I see it. What I think though will have no bearing on what actually happens. I do hope someone cashes in on some heavy snow, and like I said I tend to believe the euro, but won't discount the gfs.

[jcwxguy]

gem is slightly west

[bud2380]

Cmc a great hit for western Iowa and eastern Nebraska. Low tracks from central Missouri then almost straight north into far se Iowa.

[jcwxguy]

.

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

Lots of ice on the se side of that snow map

[hlcater]

doesn't make mcuh sense given the temps in the 850 layer

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

850s remain well below zero the first several hours in e Iowa but the Canadian is showing sleet nonetheless. I can't see the other temp profiles so it must be showing another layer somewhere above zero

[ToastedRavs]

850s remain well below zero the first several hours in e Iowa but the Canadian is showing sleet nonetheless. I can't see the other temp profiles so it must be showing another layer somewhere above zero

The warm layer by the models seems to be centered around 750mb. You have to look at the sounding to get exact range of layer, but its been between 850 & 700mb the whole week leading up to now

[bud2380]

Wxbell gfs maps show all the layers from 500-925 so you can really tell, but most other maps are just 850 and maybe 500

[Geos]

There's worst things, than being called a weenie. Just means you're a weather nerd I guess.

 

Anyways,

At this point I would side with higher resolution models.

And try to match up surface observations to what the models are showing right now and see who's right.

[james1976]

Did CMC shift the heavy snow band west?

[hlcater]

yes, but to my knowledge has been the only model to do so

[ToastedRavs]

I like that at hour 39, the Canadian still has low at 993mb over Keokuk, IA

[gabel23]

image.jpg

That is showing a 10:1 ratio, my area's high is forecasted around 19. I would say we could easily fluff up to 15:1, maybe higher. 

[ToastedRavs]

It will be interesting to see which official airport observation gets more. Omaha or Des Moines.?!? Hmmmm. Des Moines has higher likelihood of sleet but should snow longer. Tough call

[Tom]

There's worst things, than being called a weenie. Just means you're a weather nerd I guess.

 

Anyways,

At this point I would side with higher resolution models.

And try to match up surface observations to what the models are showing right now and see who's right.

High rez is the way to go, esp with systems as such...speaking of high rez, the RGEM was picking up on lake effect rain showers on its 12z run and we are seeing that right now...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015122712/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_2.png

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20151227.1638.gif

 

 

Only if it was a little colder!  DOH!

[gabel23]

Civil Emergency Message

NMC005-011-019-271700-

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE

NEW MEXICO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY ALBUQUERQUE NEW MEXICO

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM

700 AM MST SUN DEC 27 2015

 

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF LAW

ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.

 

HIGH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW HAVE LED TO EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND

LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING

CHAVES...DE BACA AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. SNOW DRIFTS OF 4 TO 10

FEET COMBINED WITH LOW TO NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES...WIND GUSTS

RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH AND NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS ARE CREATING

EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THERE ARE REPORTS OF

MULTIPLE STRANDED MOTORISTS AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE VEHICLES. DO

NOT ATTEMPT TRAVEL AT THIS TIME.

[Money]

Ukie takes the low to milwaukee

[Tom]

Money/Snowshoe/GoSaints are finally going to see a significant snowfall in what has been years it seems.  I'm glad you guys are going to cash in finally.  As this pattern shifts into a more wintry one, this snowfall should stick around for a long time as there are no signs of it melting anytime soon.

[SnowO]

Civil war!! East members vs West members!!

[Niko]

WSW for my area with mostly Ice...Ugh!!! Little snow.  Lets see how this pans out.

[westMJim]

I see several posters are getting a little testy. Well no matter what any one of the models show its still depends on how ever thing plays out. Now that said this time around I am still way too far to the east.  And the big question here in West Michigan is will we see wind (40 to 50MPH gust in forecast) and ice (up to 0.5 “) or just wind and rain?  With surface temp forecasted to only be in the upper 20’s with that wind and ice there will be just a ton of power outages.  Looking back there has not been an ice storm with that much wind reported in this area!

[westMJim]

WSW for my area with mostly Ice...Ugh!!! Little snow.  Lets see how this pans out.

with the ice and snow it does not look very good. I see the forecast is for winds to only gust to 30 MPH in your area while GRR is thinking the quest could reach 50 MPH over here

[Grizzcoat]

Ukie qpf totals--

[BrianJK]

Can someone please post temp profiles for MDW

 

Thanks

[Geos]

High rez is the way to go, esp with systems as such...speaking of high rez, the RGEM was picking up on lake effect rain showers on its 12z run and we are seeing that right now...

 

 

 

Only if it was a little colder!  DOH!

 

That could turn to snow a little later. Dewpoints are dropping. Sun is actually trying to come out here. 36°

Temps are down in the low 30s north of Milwaukee now.

[Madtown]

So .3 of ice with 3in of sleet snow imby?

[bainbridgekid]

43 degrees here in Evanston with the sun peaking out.

 

A bit hard to imagine any significant winter precip this close to the lake tomorrow.

[Tom]

12z Euro has SLP in extreme SE IA at HR 36...nudged a bit SE???

[ToastedRavs]

I think you're right Tom, just a bit to the east...which means the snowfall probably crosses the MO river...the heaviest snowfall that is

[bainbridgekid]

Euro is definitely SE of the last several runs. Still NW of the GFS/GEM.

[Tom]

Looks like 850's for only extreme eastern IA get above 0C, anywhere say from Dubuque, IA and points W/SW stay all snow on this run..

[Geos]

Looks like the higher resolution model are handling the convection position and trajectory pretty nicely. Looks like the eastern end of it sagged a bit further south than the GFS had it.

GFS is a touch too warm with temps in northeast WI and northern lower MI currently.

[james1976]

Nice to hear it moved SE. Im feeling good where im at.