12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Hawkeye]

After perhaps an inch of snow, the sleet line has moved in.  Areas up by Waterloo should stay snow and get dumped on, but I'm on the wrong side of the fence.

[East Dubzz]

Sleeting pretty well here

[educatorjen]

Offutt Air Force Base essentially closed and they have their own weather people.

[Scott26]

Started off as snow here with a dusting. Starting to transition to sleet.

[WBadgersW]

Sref plumes have been on the rise here. Now showing just over 6"

[gosaints]

Guessing the best totals might be southeast of here...

 

Lol with 2 inch qpf lollies

[East Dubzz]

Snow now starting to take over

[Blugga]

Nothing but ice pellets here. Sitting at 29.7ºF.

[Snowshoe]

It's been tough keeping up with tracking this storm over Christmas break. The small screen doesn't show the detail of the large flat screen monitor. Anyway, all I have to say is FINALLY!!!!!!! 

 

NWS Green Bay upped my grid forecast to 9" due to less sleet mixing in.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODELS STARTING TO LOOK VERY OMINOUS FOR
E-C WI. IT/S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE THE WARM AIR ALOFT WL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING INTO INTO E-C WI. THAT RAISES THE
POSSIBILITY THAT MOST OF THE PCPN WL BE SNOW. WITH IMPRESSIVE
RADAR RETURNS LINED UP FM NRN IL DOWN TO THE GULF...THAT COULD
REALLY DESTROY THE SNOWFALL FCST. COBB OUTPUT OFF THE LATEST RAP
AND HRRR HAVE 14.1 AND 5.9 INCHES OF SNOW IN GRB BY THE END OF THE
MODEL RUNS /HRRR COVERS LESS TIME AS MODEL RUN IS SHORTER/...WITH
THE EVENT STILL ONGOING. INTERESTINGLY...THEY BOTH ACTUALLY
INDICATE A BETTER SLEET POTENTIAL BACK IN CENTRAL WI. MY INITIAL
GUESS WOULD BE DRY AIR FEEDING IN FM RECEDING ANTICYCLONE IS
LEADING TO MORE COOLING IN THE E...KEEPING SOUNDINGS ALL SNOW
THERE.

DON/T WANT TO OVERREACT TO A COUPLE MODELS...BUT STARTING TO GET
VERY NERVOUS THAT GOING SNOW FCST FOR E-C WI WILL NOT HOLD. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IS ALSO REINFORCED BY THE FACT SNOW IS
STILL FALLING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PCPN WAY DOWN IN NRN IL.

WL UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE TO PUSH SNOW TOTALS HIGHER. WL ALSO
MENTION NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN E-C WI. TRAVEL LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING IS LOOKING LIKE IT COULD BECOME A REAL NIGHTMARE.
&&

[Snowshoe]

I wanted to post this part of the NWS Green Bay AFD from 6am because it really illustrates all the considerations going into a forecast. The public will see right or wrong and not all the shades of grey being considered.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015

FCST FOCUS IS IN LINING UP THE DETAILS OF THE FCST FOR THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM. INTENSE UPR SYSTEM THAT TRACKED AMAZINGLY
FAR S ACRS TEXAS /AT LEAST FOR SOMETHING THAT/S GOING TO AFFECT
WI/ WL TURN NNE AND ABSOLUTELY RACE TO NRN IL BY LATE EVENING. STG
DEEP SLY FLOW ACRS THE ENTIRE GULF IS FEEDING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NWD. PCPN SHIELD FM NRN IL DOWN TO THE GULF COAST WL CONT TO
SURGE NWD...THEN PIVOT ARND UPR SYSTEM AS IT ARRIVES IN THE AREA.
THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST 24 HRS HAS BEEN TOWARD
A CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE UPR LOW ACRS SERN WI. SFC LOW WL BE
VERTICALLY STACKED UNDERNEATH BY THAT POINT. THAT/S PRETTY MUCH A
CLASSIC TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACRS E-C WI. THERMAL FIELDS HAVE
FALLEN IN LINE. EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE WARM-OUTLIER NAM HAS
TRENDED COLDER. BUFR SOUNDINGS FM THE 06Z NAM WERE DOWN TO JUST A
SINGLE HR OF SLEET AT GRB /8 PM/. SO WITH MORE THE PCPN TO FALL AS
SNOW...UPPED TOTALS IN E-C WI FM PREV FCST. STILL A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT PCPN TYPE IN THE SRN EDGE OF THE FCST AREA AND THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE LOCATIONS. UPPED SNOWFALLS IN THESE AREAS
AS WELL...BUT FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE
THE PROFILES CONT TO TREND COLDER. THE OTHER CHG WAS TO BACK DOWN
ON TOTALS A BIT IN VILAS COUNTY AS IT APPEARS THAT AREA WL BE ON
THE NW FRINGE OF THE HEAVY SNOWS.

STG ELY WINDS COMBINED WITH HEAVY SNOW WL MAKE A REAL MESS OF
TRAVEL LATE THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN IDEAL
TO HAVE HAD A START TIME OF THE WARNING AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
OVER THE FAR S...BUT NOT SURE THAT SMALL A CHANGE WOULD REALLY
HAVE MEANING AT THIS POINT. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED MY BEST GUESS AT
TIMING WITH SHARP POP GRADIENT IN THE GRIDS...AND IN AN SPS.

CONSIDERED THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN E-C
WI FOR A TIME DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVENING. BUT HAVE SEEN SEVERAL
SITNS WITH TEMP PROFILES HAVING A DEEP NEAR FREEZING LAYER WHERE
SNOWFLAKES TEND TO STICK TOGETHER...SO VSBYS DON/T GO DOWN AS MUCH
AS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH INCH AN HOUR SNOWS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS...A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

SNOWS WILL TAPER OFF FM S-N OVERNIGHT. SCT SHSN AND AREAS OF FZDZ
/DUE TO LOSS OF MID-LVL MOISTURE/ WL CONT INTO TUESDAY. IT/S
POSSIBLE A MESO-SCALE SNOW BAND COULD SET UP SOMEWHERE AND
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW. DON/T KNOW FOR SURE IF/WHERE
THAT WOULD HAPPEN...BUT MOST CONCERNED ABOUT N-C WI DURING THE
AFTN AS DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NW FLANK OF REMNANTS OF MID-LVL
CIRCULATION WL BE LINGERING IN THAT REGION.

[ToastedRavs]

SMH. Again, what the hell are you talking about?! EVERY FORECASTER IN THIS AREA AND MOST OF THE MIDWEST WAS GOING WITH THE EURO. Go read all the discussions in the AFD's that were put out yesterday afternoon and evening and prior to that. Hell even our NWS put out an update at 930 saying they were keeping things the same and throwing out the 0Z NAM that pushed everything east. Since Jim is THE GUY that everyone goes to for their forecast, he should send out an apology. Apparently all the other TV stations that were also calling for 6-10+" over eastern Nebraska don't listen to their own guys, they go to Jim. I already mentioned our local NWS office, so I guess they must have called him too. Even the guys in Washington that put out the probability maps must have been talking to Jim because again all day yesterday they had a 80% of greater than 8" of snow guess where? Right over eastern Nebraska.

The average Joe Public already thinks that weather is some kind of exact science, so to say Jim and only Jim should have been saying all these "what if" situations is absurd. TV weatherman get public abuse no matter what they forecast because it is almost ALWAYS wrong for someone. For all those snow plow companies that are going to wake up surprised today, than maybe the should go somewhere else for their forecast like the NWS, or another TV station or the WPC website. Errr wait, I guess those people were wrong too. I guess they should come here to this forum then instead since I guess the information they get will always be right!

 

Ugh. You don't get it and won't. He locked in days ago and threw out every other model. That's just wrong. Other mets were mentioning the other possibilities. Plain and simple. He knows better and he failed. Enjoy your bust, if it is that. Good day, sir

[bainbridgekid]

HRRR showing 18 infches in far NE Iowa, though I'm sure this is counting sleet since it also tires to give ORD nearly 6".

 

[shakjen]

It has been all rain here. Don't see us getting the ice they called for.

[westMJim]

We will have to see how todays event plays out.  Right now a lot depends on how much fr rain and sleet and may be snow we get.  The temps here in west central Michigan are several degrees colder then they are to our south and with a NE wind they will stay colder longer.  The current temp here is  27° with a DP of 18.  I would not be too surprised if the event starts out as snow and then sleet before Fr rain sets in. So far its just cloudy here but the NE wind has picked up and it is now gusting up to 30 MPH

[WBadgersW]

Interesting update by Green Bay. Hopefully we will also have less sleet down here to

[bainbridgekid]

HRRR showing 18 inches in far NE Iowa, though I'm sure this is counting sleet since it also tires to give ORD nearly 6".

 

[Scott26]

Snowing huge flakes over here as better returns go over my area.

[GDR]

Looks like dry air in northern Missouri

[Hawkeye]

HRRR showing 18 inches in far NE Iowa, though I'm sure this is counting sleet since it also tires to give ORD nearly 6".

 

Except far northeast Iowa will probably remain all snow.  I'm skeptical of 18 inches, but there should be some big totals up that way.

[Madtown]

Snow started her 20 min ago, 1/4images or so so far. Temp has dropped down 3 degrees with the start of it sitting at 25

[bainbridgekid]

Except far northeast Iowa will probably remain all snow.  I'm skeptical of 18 inches, but there should be some big totals up that way.

Agreed. That's where I picked for the area of heaviest snowfall. Should be lots of 12+ inch reports.

[gosaints]

Returns on the iowa mn border. Seemingly on schedule

[Andrew NE]

Radar is filling in pretty decent to the west of Omaha a lot more than I though it would.

[ToastedRavs]

Have 2.3" so far here. Been snowing pretty good past 90 minutes. Seems on schedule, and hopefully that dry slot in Missouri doesn't bring down totals too much. I do like the echoes south of that area though. No sleet whatsoever so far here... Hopefully that continues too!

[Money]

How's it look here? Not at home

[Geos]

All snow here, 28°.

Grass is almost covered up.

 

Looks like the low re-consolidated into one.

 

 

[Geos]

Current winter radar.

 

[jaster220]

From Jackson 25mi east of Marshall:

 

 

"Snowing like crazy here and blowing everywhere"

[Geos]

Yeah it's blowing everywhere here too. Going to be difficult to measure.

[WBadgersW]

And the snow has started here

[Blugga]

About 0.25" of sleet here.

 

Is the system fighting dry air around the Chicago area? Reflectivity keeps dying down as it passes the radar to the north.

 

 

Edit: Temp just dropped to 29.1ºF. Starting to see some flurries.

[Scott26]

Looks like I may have transitioned to freezing rain here? Maybe some ice pellets mixed in. Pretty tough to tell at this point.

[WBadgersW]

MKX still not impressed with the snow potential. Mentioned that rain is possible if it warms enough after 2pm.

[Hawkeye]

The warm layer has finally won out over here.  I picked up probably 1.5 inches of snow, but now it's light sleet and should stay that way for a while.

[Geos]

Snowing now and cars, roofs, and grass is white!

 

EDIT: Mixture of snow and sleet now. Still see some flakes, but mostly sleet.

Scene here. Cold air is winning for now.

[Tony]

Looling nice Geos!  Hopefully we can get some of that around here once the heavier returns start to flow in.

[Geos]

MKX still not impressed with the snow potential. Mentioned that rain is possible if it warms enough after 2pm.

 

Seriously!? Lol.

 

About 0.25" of sleet here.

 

Is the system fighting dry air around the Chicago area? Reflectivity keeps dying down as it passes the radar to the north.

 

 

Edit: Temp just dropped to 29.1ºF. Starting to see some flurries.

Full on moderate snow here. No dry air around here. Beginning to think the lake is helping the snow situation somehow. Did not expect it to be in the 20s still at 10am.

[WBadgersW]

Temperature dropped to 26°. I went out to do a quick run before things get bad. I regret not going earlier in the morning, that wind and snow burns.

[BrianJK]

Can you believe I just took off on a flight out of MDW? Never seen an aircraft so caked with ice like that. Thought for sure I was getting cancelled.

[Blugga]

Full on moderate snow here. No dry air around here. Being to thing the lake is helping the snow situation somehow. Did not expect it to be in the 20s still at 10am.

 

I was supposed to get zrain transitioning to rain, but temp sitting at 28.8ºF. It's actually going down. Getting light snow now.

 

Wondering if they're going to upgrade the southern KLOT CWA to an ice storm warning.