January 2016 in the PNW

[MossMan]

It's not like he's stepping out on a limb here. Climatology is a good bet at this point and that's all he's going with.

I heard the same thing about ElNino taking over and winter being over so many times in 06-07, I had quite a bit of snowfall each month Nov-March. One of my favorite winters!

[Timmy]

It's not like he's stepping out on a limb here. Climatology is a good bet at this point and that's all he's going with.

The last year has been everything but climatology though, so going with climatology may not be a "good bet".

[Guest Winterdog]

The last year has been everything but climatology though, so going with climatology may not be a "good bet".

Good point! Let's hope it continues.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

NINO TO TAKE OVER - Cliff Mass

 

According to Cliff Mass, who was interviewed on KIRO radio this morning, said - 'he hoped everyone has enjoyed the snow and cold as NINO regime is about to take hold this month, ending this pattern'. The heavy mountain snowfall pattern will start to decrease this month, along with basically very little to no chance of getting snow in the lowlands the rest of winter. 

 

He summarized that we will be dryer and warmer and mountain snowfall should level-off to end up about normal by end of season and the lowlands do not look to have any real chance for accumulation. Forecasting models show cold air should be shoved east leaving us dry and seasonable overall the rest of winter. 

 

I hope everyone had fun but according to Cliff our "winter is over."     

 

Currently moderate rain and 35 degrees. Exciting times!  <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_angry.png" alt=":angry:">  

Well its good news because he is wrong most of the time. What a idiot making such a bold statement. Lol

[HighlandExperience]

The last year has been everything but climatology though, so going with climatology may not be a "good bet".

Exactly that was my point. Last season pretty much defied climatology around here. It could happen in the opposite direction as well. Just went outside and it is Nasty and wet.

 

Just noticed even the pass is closed. A week ago I would never have guessed that would happen so soon again.

[Bryant]

Euro and GFS both have shifted the cold to the east for this weekend. Bummer. Still a ways out, but the trend is not our friend.

[epiceast]

Euro is deliberating a Pineapple express at this point. I'd say we're due. Despite a really wet Dec and Nov we never had a proper long fetch from SW last year.

[Brennan]

Update tim?

[Guest Winterdog]

Euro is deliberating a Pineapple express at this point. I'd say we're due. Despite a really wet Dec and Nov we never had a proper long fetch from SW last year.

That is the last thing we need after all the low level snow in the mountains. I hope your are wrong.

[TT-SEA]

Update tim?

 

 

8 inches of new snow here.    Pictures posted earlier.  

[HighlandExperience]

Euro is deliberating a Pineapple express at this point. I'd say we're due. Despite a really wet Dec and Nov we never had a proper long fetch from SW last year.

That doesn't seem like a typical thing you would expect in an El Niño year.

[ShawniganLake]

8 inches of new snow here.    Pictures posted earlier.  

Was the snow really powdery, or was it windy last night?  That doesn't look like 8" of snow stuck to the trees in your pictures.  Either way, you one the snow award again!

[luvssnow_spokane]

That doesn't seem like a typical thing you would expect in an El Niño year.

Nothing seems to be going as expected this year.

[TT-SEA]

Was the snow really powdery, or was it windy last night?  That doesn't look like 8" of snow stuck to the trees in your pictures.  Either way, you one the snow award again!

 

 

It was pretty windy overnight.   I am surprised there was that much stuck to the trees.   I think it calmed down in the last couple hours of snowfall.  

 

Sleeting now and 32.6 degrees.

[ShawniganLake]

A nice wintery feel to things here today.  Ended up with a light coating of 0.3" of snow overnight.  Currently its 32.9F with a dark overcast and some light flurries blowing in a breezy north wind.  I could see a little more accumulating snow tomorrow morning before things warm up.  Temps look pretty marginal though. 

[Guest Winterdog]

It's a bit encouraging that the 12Z op looks to be a bit of a warm outlier on the ensembles.

[ShawniganLake]

It was pretty windy overnight.   I am surprised there was that much stuck to the trees.   I think it calmed down in the last couple hours of snowfall.  

 

Sleeting now and 32.6 degrees.

Ahh, makes sense. I was just looking at the trees on the hillside above your garden, looked pretty bare.  That's one thing about my location, snow and wind in combination is exceedingly rare. 

[Jesse]

Euro is deliberating a Pineapple express at this point. I'd say we're due. Despite a really wet Dec and Nov we never had a proper long fetch from SW last year.

I think you just want it to warm up.

[Deweydog]

Euro is deliberating a Pineapple express at this point. I'd say we're due. Despite a really wet Dec and Nov we never had a proper long fetch from SW last year.

Huh?

[Timmy]

Euro is deliberating a Pineapple express at this point. I'd say we're due. Despite a really wet Dec and Nov we never had a proper long fetch from SW last year.

yeah i would hate to see these drought conditions get any worse...

[epiceast]

I think you just want it to warm up.

It's already warm enough here, balmy 37 and its not even noon. Probably will get to take my bike out tomorrow, the ice on bike trails will turn into slush today.

[TT-SEA]

Ahh, makes sense. I was just looking at the trees on the hillside above your garden, looked pretty bare.  That's one thing about my location, snow and wind in combination is exceedingly rare. 

 

 

Yeah... it was even more windy up on the ridge.    Much less snow on the trees up there.   That is how it looks with a good east wind snowstorm.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've never liked Cliff Mass. It seems like he is declaring winter cancel in December or early January every year.

[crf450ish]

If I had to guess, I'd say any "celebrity" Pro-Met is being steered by politics. Think about it, governments will employ professional meteorologists to forward their political agenda....

 

 

 

 

IDK, maybe its just me and my conspiracy theory tendencies coming out....

[James Jones]

Yesterday

 

PDX 32/28

SLE  32/24

EUG 31/24

 

 

I think this was the first sub-freezing high at PDX in January since 2007...

Yep, first time in 9 years. Incredible that they could go nearly a decade without seeing one during what has historically been the coldest month of the year. Also interesting that they finally broke the streak without even a hint of arctic air.

[BLI snowman]

Yep, first time in 9 years. Incredible that they could go nearly a decade without seeing one during what has historically been the coldest month of the year. Also interesting that they finally broke the streak without even a hint of arctic air.

 

PDX also went from 1982 to 1993 without seeing a subfreezing high in January. 

[TT-SEA]

Sun is out... melting has commenced.

[Deweydog]

Sun is out... melting has commenced.

Pics!

 

Updates!

 

Journal entries!

[Snowman5678]

Went for a drive in the valley. roads were pretty slushy south of 124th. I'm sure 203 is clear for the most part but I took West Snoqualmie Valley Rd. down 100th to Carnation Farm rd, then back over 80th street and up West Snoqualmie. 80th wasn't very slushy but 100th was all slushy and west snoqualmie had clear tire tracks.

[MossMan]

Just got back to work, moderate snow, temp 32 with about an inch on the ground including the side roads.

[James Jones]

PDX also went from 1982 to 1993 without seeing a subfreezing high in January. 

Good catch. Goes to show how our long our struggles in January have lasted. I'd imagine our longest streak prior to that was probably 5-6 years?

[BLI snowman]

Good catch. Goes to show how our long our struggles in January have lasted. I'd imagine our longest streak prior to that was probably 5-6 years?

 

Yeah, 5 years seems to have been done a few times. As far back as 1878-1883. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could be wrong, but I bet it was the first time since January 2004 that EUG, SLE, and PDX all had a sub freezing January high on the same day. 

 

Just looked it up. SLE, EUG, and PDX all had sub freezing highs on January 13, 2007. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course SLE had 5 sub-freezing highs in January 2013 with the fogversion.

[Jesse]

Yeah, it is pretty silly for a professional just to write off another month and a half when long range forecasting is still so bad.

Imagine a world where a pro-met sticks a fork in summer in late-July/early-August every year. Never would happen.

[HighlandExperience]

If I had to guess, I'd say any "celebrity" Pro-Met is being steered by politics. Think about it, governments will employ professional meteorologists to forward their political agenda....

 

 

 

 

IDK, maybe its just me and my conspiracy theory tendencies coming out....

Actually Cliff is pretty reasonable about this stuff. He has publicly spoken out against alarmist tendacies of some outlets.

[TT-SEA]

Lots of blue sky and partly sunny here with no fog at all... 35 degrees.

 

Way different than the Seattle area.   Must still be some offshore flow in play.

[HighlandExperience]

Lots of blue sky and partly sunny here with no fog at all... 35 degrees.

 

Way different than the Seattle area.   Must still be some offshore flow in play.

 

Noticed Mt. Rainier is cleared out now as well. 

[MossMan]

Imagine a world where a pro-met sticks a fork in summer in late-July/early-August every year. Never would happen.

Actually I would hear mets say just that in the past come mid August...would drive me just as crazy as the wintertime fork sticking. And more times than not when anyone brings out the fork, the opposite happens. Hope we get blasted for the next 3 months straight.

[MossMan]

Still lightly snowing up here!