January 2016 in the PNW

[crf450ish]

The ten miles from my house to Silverton was a nightmare. Between Silverton and Salem is pretty bad too

Pure ice on the roads?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pure ice on the roads?

Yes. Incredibly slick.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was up to 31.8, back to 31.3 with light freezing rain again. East wind 10-15mph. TTD-DLS gradient still -7.2mb at 8 AM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver falls down to 31

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX just cracked freezing.

 

I really don't see the east winds fully going away this week, though. Could be lots of sub-40 highs coming up. Winter.

[Deweydog]

Arctic front pushing through?

[Timmy]

29 here this morning with a glaze of ice on the 8" or so of snow (2.5" new). Snow on the ground for nearly two weeks now, interested to see how much if I get much above freezing this week. We are leaving Thursday night through the following Sunday for a carribean cruise, so hopefully we don't miss the big one, but that this point it would ruin my vacation given the snow I have gotten so far.

[BLI snowman]

12z GFS looks like it goes way east with the airmass next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS looks like it goes way east with the airmass next weekend.

 

 

Makes sense... ECMWF showed that.

 

Could be a problem for the Seahawks in Minneapolis though.   

[TT-SEA]

Almost 30 inches of snow here since December 17th.

[BLI snowman]

Makes sense... ECMWF showed that.

 

Could be a problem for the Seahawks in Minneapolis though.   

 

10F or less looks like a decent bet. 

[crf450ish]

12z GFS looks like it goes way east with the airmass next weekend.

It expands east or shifts east? Would that still leave us with an "arctic blast"?

[Timmy]

Temp up 2 degrees in the last hour to 31

[TT-SEA]

Plow came through...

 

 

[Snowman5678]

Up at the coffee shop a couple miles to my east. Only like 1/2" of snow but the parking lots are snowy and slushy along with the main road.

[stuffradio]

I did get SOME snow. It slightly covered the road, and the patches of grass on the front lawn that had accumulating snow, I'd say it was max 1 cm in those patches. I think it's still more likely a legitimate trace of snow in those spots this time though. Oh well, it's much better than anything I got in December. My snow accumulations so far this winter is still way under an inch so far.

[luminen]

I did get SOME snow. It slightly covered the road, and the patches of grass on the front lawn that had accumulating snow, I'd say it was max 1 cm in those patches. I think it's still more likely a legitimate trace of snow in those spots this time though. Oh well, it's much better than anything I got in December. My snow accumulations so far this winter is still way under an inch so far.

 

It's variable around Vancouver. Some spots it's about 1 cm and other spots 2-3 cm.

[BLI snowman]

It expands east or shifts east? Would that still leave us with an "arctic blast"?

 

Shifted east by a good 500+ miles over the 00z. Leaves us with dry, chilly-ish weather and not much else.

[crf450ish]

Shifted east by a good 500+ miles over the 00z. Leaves us with dry, chilly-ish weather and not much else.

Dang. I hope that doesn't verify. I want that arctic air....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We shall wait for the ensembles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think Eugene has a shot at a 32/30 day today. Currently 30 with 1/8 mile visibility. 

[crf450ish]

Been browsing the great plains part of the forum and there is some good model analysis posts there. Looks to be some decent disagreement within the models on this potential arctic blast.....

[Prairiedog]

Winthrop continues to get dumped on. Looks like another 4-5". They've had quite the winter so far. They get less snow than

Leavenworth but are considerably colder. I don't think Leavenworth has had near their amount of snow so far.

[FroYoBro]

Everything has a pretty thick layer of ice here. Temperature is finally inching above freezing and I can hear some melting going on.

 

It looks like the gorge gradients are still firmly offshore, yet winds are pretty calm throughout the metro area. Anyone know why? 

[Deweydog]

Everything has a pretty thick layer of ice here. Temperature is finally inching above freezing and I can hear some melting going on.

 

It looks like the gorge gradients are still firmly offshore, yet winds are pretty calm throughout the metro area. Anyone know why?

Gradients are very shallow. Gap winds only.

[Gradient Keeper]

Everything has a pretty thick layer of ice here. Temperature is finally inching above freezing and I can hear some melting going on.

 

It looks like the gorge gradients are still firmly offshore, yet winds are pretty calm throughout the metro area. Anyone know why? 

Much shallower cold air, so east wind is more confined closer to the Columbia River, Gresham, Troutdale. Also, the Cross-Cascade gradients have been steadily weakening while PDX-DLS/TTD-DLS have held steady around -7mb for hours and hours.

[luvssnow_spokane]

NINO TO TAKE OVER - Cliff Mass

 

According to Cliff Mass, who was interviewed on KIRO radio this morning, said - 'he hoped everyone has enjoyed the snow and cold as NINO regime is about to take hold this month, ending this pattern'. The heavy mountain snowfall pattern will start to decrease this month, along with basically very little to no chance of getting snow in the lowlands the rest of winter. 

 

He summarized that we will be dryer and warmer and mountain snowfall should level-off to end up about normal by end of season and the lowlands do not look to have any real chance for accumulation. Forecasting models show cold air should be shoved east leaving us dry and seasonable overall the rest of winter. 

 

I hope everyone had fun but according to Cliff our "winter is over."     

 

Currently moderate rain and 35 degrees. Exciting times!  <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_angry.png" alt=":angry:">  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX back down to freezing.

[Prairiedog]

I'm 13 miles east of I-205, clackamas near Estacada. Hovering between 32-33f. Roads totally clear in the area. Much different north of Clackamas.

Foothills have run several degrees milder and had less snow and ice than the metro area had. At near 400ft el near the foothills there was only a dusting here. Most areas locally in the metro ran from a fat inch to 3"

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX back down to freezing.

Not too surprised PDX/TTD-DLS gradients not budging remaining steady around -7mb which is 3-4mb stronger than 00z modeled them to be.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, through Tuesday 10 AM Tuesday morning we keep a PDX-DLS gradient of at least -5mb to perhaps -8/-9mb due to low pressure developing offshore and the fact that models continue to be 2-4mb too weak with handling the gap gradients.. Hmmm.... Yeah, not sure east of I-205 is completely out of the woods for more frozen precip overnight into Tuesday.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, despite the arctic air going 500 miles further east we still manage a decent Columbia Basin high and cold east wind. Next Monday

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016010412/images_d2/slp.171.0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could go for a few cold crisp days like last Friday and Saturday.

[HighlandExperience]

According to Cliff Mass, who was interviewed on KIRO radio this morning, said - he hoped everyone has enjoyed the snow they got because a NINO regime is about to take hold this month. Mountain snowfall will start to decrease this along with basically with very little chance of getting snow in the lowlands the rest of winter.

 

I hope everyone had fun but according to Cliff our "winter is over." He summarized that we will be dryer and warmer and mountain snowfall should level off to end up about normal and the lowlands do not look to have any real chance for accumulation. Most cold air should be shoved east leaving us dry and seasonable overall.

 

Currently moderate rain and 35 degrees. Exciting times!

I respect the guy. But he basically said the same thing about a week ago. Taking it with a grain of salt at this point.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I respect the guy. But he basically said the same thing about a week ago. Taking it with a grain of salt at this point.

I totally respect him as he is usually more right than wrong and I highly doubt his prediction will be that far off from reality. Sad but true... We can wish cast like crazy here but by the end of the day I bet he is very, very close to being accurate. We shall see.

[FroYoBro]

I respect the guy. But he basically said the same thing about a week ago. Taking it with a grain of salt at this point.

 

Yeah, it is pretty silly for a professional just to write off another month and a half when long range forecasting is still so bad. 

[Guest Winterdog]

Waiting on the 12Z Euro to see if the arctic air spills way to our east as now shown on the GFS and last nights Euro. I guess I shouldn't complain since I did get 1/4" of nice powdery snow this morning. Not watching the news but my guess is that Jim Foreman and the "Yellow Jackets" are all out on snow patrol. After all, this is the biggest snow event in two years for Seattle. Up to 34F now and my snowpack is drip, drip, dripping away. Next year will be better.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Waiting on the 12Z Euro to see if the arctic air spills way to our east as now shown on the GFS and last nights Euro. I guess I shouldn't complain since I did get 1/4" of nice powdery snow this morning. Not watching the news but my guess is that Jim Foreman and the "Yellow Jackets" are all out on snow patrol. After all, this is the biggest snow event in two years for Seattle. Up to 34F now and my snowpack is drip, drip, dripping away. Next year will be better.

Lol.. well said. Honestly, this pattern has just been another big tease with nothing of real value (Accept in the mountains!! ). If we are being honest with ourselves this is just another disappointing on the edge snow/rain scenario. It is/has been one hell of sick joke.   

[Guest Winterdog]

I totally respect him as he is usually more right than wrong and I highly doubt his prediction will be that far off from reality. Sad but true... We can wish cast like crazy here but by the end of the day I bet he is very, very close to being accurate. We shall see.

It's not like he's stepping out on a limb here. Climatology is a good bet at this point and that's all he's going with.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, it is pretty silly for a professional just to write off another month and a half when long range forecasting is still so bad. 

Well, he has done it many, many times and been right. He has also posted on our greater chances of snow here and been right. They have skills and experience that far outweigh most if not all of us combined on this forum and do not focus blindly on each model run with deep hopes for snow. They just see the "big" picture and honestly have deeper knowledge of how to sort things out from the random outliers, FUD and wish-casting that we so often do on this board. This forum has a tendency to fool itself with false hope and the end result ends up being very much like what these professionals say it would be but we tend to poo-poo their ability.

 

EDIT: Could he (they) be wrong?  Sure...