August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[Phil]

7 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA did pick up a degree on the high after 5 p.m.    Ended up with 77/62 which was perfectly normal on the high and +5 on the low.

That would be a -10 departure in DC.

Y’all have it soooooo easy/good. Even in warm summers.

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Amazing how cool 55 feels after lows in the low to mid 60s.

Much warmer up here... thanks to marine layer clouds.    65 in North Bend this morning and 63 at SEA.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That would be a -10 departure in DC.

Y’all have it soooooo easy/good. Even in warm summers.

Exactly.    Even warm summers are quite pleasant in the Seattle area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

62 at PDX this morning, 55 SLE, 51 eug 

[Phil]

T minus 5 days until the stratospheric PV develops. #ItsComing

For whatever reason, this is often when the first changes in seasonal dynamics/wavelengths become evident.

[Phil]

And as always the PNW/West-Central US will be the first to cash in on the seasonal change, while us east coasters will hang onto summer for another 1-2 months.

Not fair how the switch from winter to summer happens in only 3-4 weeks, but the transition from summer to winter takes 3-4 months.  

[The Blob]

Nice weather this morning, the clouds are on top of Mt.Scot and the tomatoes are getting picked. I did come home to the garden hose running which meant it had been running for over 10hrs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, The Blob said:

Nice weather this morning, the clouds are on top of Mt.Scot and the tomatoes are getting picked. I did come home to the garden hose running which meant it had been running for over 10hrs.

2014 was the only summer I had a huge tomato crop. I suspect this year will once again fail. The rain kept us from getting them in early, by September it’s just too cold at night up here usually... 2014 was a warm summer and I timed planting perfectly. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The the other hand we are eating zucchini for breakfast lunch and dinner...

[Winterdog]

Another night spent in, for me, a relative sauna.  A low of 63 and currently 64. 

[TacomaWx]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 Y’all complaining about mid-80s is cute.  

Nobody was complaining about mid 80s…upper 80s-low 90s. I’m sure we could find plenty of posts about you complaining about the same thing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nobody was complaining about mid 80s…upper 80s-low 90s. I’m sure we could find plenty of posts about you complaining about the same thing. 

 
 

We are way past that now. As Phil would say, you don’t know how good you have it. STILL 

https://youtu.be/_CL6n0FJZpk

Edited August 21, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

 
 

We are way past that now. As Phil would say, you don’t know how good you have it. STILL 

https://youtu.be/_CL6n0FJZpk

I don’t know how you weren’t banned for longer STILL 

[RentonHill]

I thought there wasn’t supposed to be marine layer today tim

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I thought there wasn’t supposed to be marine layer today tim

Sunny here now.    Its just a very thin layer left over from yesterday and not a new push.

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Sunny here now.    Its just a very thin layer left over from yesterday and not a new push.

K because we’re going to the water park and I want it hot today!! Let’s burn!!

[TacomaWx]

Got down to 62 this morning 4th consecutive +60 low. We could break our record for +60 lows this summer the record of 18 was just set last year. We also tied the record for consecutive +60 lows set last year in late July. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS not backing down on the troughing next weekend.     Pretty sure that is going to happen now.   Probably not much rain... but definitely cool weather.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Severe clear and 66. My favorite number. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice 12z run. Some warm days on there too for our water sport enthusiasts. 

[Deweydog]

Fall begins in 10 days according to arithmetic.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS is actually warmer for next weekend compared to its 00Z run and much warmer than the 12Z operational.   Does not show much of a cool down... 850mb temps stay warmer than normal.

[TT-SEA]

Marine layer clouds clearing from east to west today... the opposite of yesterday.    Totally sunny out here now and up to 73 in North Bend already.   

[Omegaraptor]

Probably about 7 weeks or so before we can start watching the Oregon Cascades zone area forecasts for sneaux.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Probably about 7 weeks or so before we can start watching the Oregon Cascades zone area forecasts for sneaux.

We went over to Bend around October 10, 2019 and it was snowing and sticking on Santiam Pass. It was actually snowing in Bend that night but did not stick. 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We went over to Bend around October 10, 2019 and it was snowing and sticking on Santiam Pass. It was actually snowing in Bend that night but did not stick. 

Spokane saw snow that September I think!

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS is pretty warm at day 10...

[RentonHill]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEFS is pretty warm at day 10...

Two divergent solutions like @Cascadia_Wx was saying - gets hot and stays hot - or we get the first trough and then we only get a spike around 10

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Two divergent solutions like @Cascadia_Wx was saying - gets hot and stays hot - or we get the first trough and then we only get a spike around 10

Yeah... there are two different paths.   The mean is leaning towards warmer though.    Also looking at trends since the 12Z GEFS was actually warmer than the 00Z run.   ECMWF coming out now will be interesting. 

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... there are two different paths.   The mean is leaning towards warmer though.    Also looking at trends since the 12Z GEFS was actually warmer than the 00Z run.   ECMWF coming out now will be interesting. 

Both paths look warm at day ~10 spike, the OP and control both as warm as the warm members of the GEFS, and warmer than the mean

[TT-SEA]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Both paths look warm at day ~10 spike, the OP and control both as warm as the warm members of the GEFS, and warmer than the mean

The mean will always be more muted at that range.    Next weekend is more interesting because it's much closer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would be surprised if we didn’t stay generally warm and dry through the first couple weeks of September. Typically before we see large scale pattern changes the models start teasing them a bit before they actually start to develop. I think once the flow turns more progressive it may stay that way for some time, as we saw in autumn 2016. But until then we will see a lot of warm sunny days like today. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The mean will always be more muted at that range.    Next weekend is more interesting because it's much closer.

I’ll be very specific: I “disagreed” that the “mean was leaning towards warmer” since that implies its its own model and not just showing the average of the two distinct paths. Since OP was in the bottom path of

course mean will show warmer than it. K I’m done

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Analogs used for Oregon department of agriculture fall forecast are 1956,1971, 2008. 2008 replaces 1975 this month. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks cooler and more troughy already by Friday compared to its 00Z run.  The ECMWF at 5 days out is much more meaningful than anything else.

[Deweydog]

Pretty benign pattern coming up. Really nothing for anyone to freak out about, although early-onset trough anxiety seems to be setting in.  

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty benign pattern coming up. Really nothing for anyone to freak out about, although early-onset trough anxiety seems to be setting in.  

Freaking out?    

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty interesting set up... 

 

 

[RentonHill]

31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty benign pattern coming up. Really nothing for anyone to freak out about, although early-onset trough anxiety seems to be setting in.  

weather related anxiety is how i deal with real life anxiety

[Phil]

This behemoth is spitting out lightning like it’s the apocalypse.