GHD III Winter Storm Possibility, Feb. 1st-3rd

[gosaints]

Another huge uptick around these parts on the GEFS...pretty remarkable to see these type of shifts. If this holds on, the EPS saw the SE trend 24 hours ago.

Definite southeast trend on the ensembles but we have seen shifts larger than this inside of 60 hours.

[NEJeremy]

umm I counted 11/17 of the ensembles that still bury Nebraska. what's so horrible about that?

[Tom]

Definite southeast trend on the ensembles but we have seen shifts larger than this inside of 60 hours.

Indeed, but this time it's the friendly EPO and blocking HP to the north that is shifting as we get closer.  I had a feeling it would.  HP's in SE Canada during a neutral/negative EPO are very rare.  So to see the models shifting the HP north of the Dakota's and not zipping it east towards Toronto is the correction I was expecting.  I'm still not 100% sold on these trends, give it another 24 hours and if they continue or hold then I'd be getting more optimistic.

[Tony]

CPC has Northern IL in heavy snow area as well as most of Iowa and WI

[Snowlover76]

umm I counted 11/17 of the ensembles that still bury Nebraska. what's so horrible about that?

The trends are awful today. Simply awful

[Stormgeek]

Seems everything is trending fairly well to the southeast. Hopefully this ends for the sake of my sanity. GFS needs to go back to its NW solution. And yes I know it is forever out, but this trend is quite supported it seems.

[jcwxguy]

Zoomed in euro

[clintbeed1993]

For those wondering why us Nebraska posters are nervous, we don't tend to get snowstorms around here.  Bad trends are usually a death sentence for this state.

[gosaints]

Indeed, but this time it's the friendly EPO and blocking HP to the north that is shifting as we get closer. I had a feeling it would. HP's in SE Canada during a neutral/negative EPO are very rare. So to see the models shifting the HP north of the Dakota's and not zipping it east towards Toronto is the correction I was expecting. I'm still not 100% sold on these trends, give it another 24 hours and if they continue or hold then I'd be getting more optimistic.

No doubt

[bud2380]

DGEX??

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

[NEJeremy]

I get what you're dropping JC, even if no one else does

[Snowlover76]

For those wondering why us Nebraska posters are nervous, we don't tend to get snowstorms around here. Bad trends are usually a death sentence for this state.

Which is why the most I'm expecting is 6"

[Jaycee]

When the Chicago members rob a storm from us Nebraskan's every year:

 

[indianajohn]

. ABC7 calling it!!!!! "Snow lovers, it looks like we will miss the next big storm. Still looks like heaviest snow next Tuesday will stay to our north & west. Mild this weekend with highs in the 40s." I think they are speaking too soon what do you guys think?

 

[Tornadobrah89]

Lol gary is going to be right. This storm is going to weaken a bit and shift south east. Missouri and southern iowa be prepared

[Money]

Those gfs ensembles tho

[Madtown]

Let's go Madtown!!!

[Madtown]

I am all about Mby on this one 2 years without a 6" storm

[Geos]

. ABC7 calling it!!!!! "Snow lovers, it looks like we will miss the next big storm. Still looks like heaviest snow next Tuesday will stay to our north & west. Mild this weekend with highs in the 40s." I think they are speaking too soon what do you guys think?

 

I watched their broadcast at 4pm and Caplan showed a mix for Chicago and points south. I don't think he would have seen the 18z GFS. I think tonight their maps will reflect those changes.

[Tom]

00z NAM digs that 1st lead wave up towards the Lakes...northwoods of Wisco get some snows...this may result in forcing HP farther south out of Canada for the second main wave...

[Geos]

When the Chicago members rob a storm from us Nebraskan's every year:

 

Haha. Well there is some good ensemble runs for both locations. The snow band just needs to stay more W to E and not turn NE so soon.

[Money]

Geos gets 18+ and ORD gets 5.9

 

Would be fine with me

[Madtown]

How bout msn?

[hlcater]

Geos gets 18+ and ORD gets 5.9

 

Would be fine with me

lol Tom is 0.1 inch short. if that verifies, that'd be crazy.

[Geos]

The 18z GFS is probably the best run for the most people yet.

 

I don't think MSN will be left out at all.

[Jaycee]

Here I sit, broken hearted,

 

The models looked good, til the SE trend started,

 

I watched closely, every day,

 

As Tom and Geos, stole the storm away,

 

As they all enjoy a blizzard, we'll cry bust,

 

And have an advisory, of blowing dust. 

[Madtown]

What does this 18z look like? Nebraska throwing in the towel?

[Money]

Here I sit, broken hearted,

 

The models looked good, til the SE trend started,

 

I watched closely, every day,

 

As Tom and Geos, stole the storm away,

 

As they all enjoy a blizzard, we'll cry bust,

 

And have an advisory, of blowing dust.

Never doubt the geos magnet

[Tom]

Here I sit, broken hearted,

 

The models looked good, til the SE trend started,

 

I watched closely, every day,

 

As Tom and Geos, stole the storm away,

 

As they all enjoy a blizzard, we'll cry bust,

 

And have an advisory, of blowing dust.

ROTFL...gotta say, that was a well-written poem there buddy. Def got a kick out of it.

 

Hang in there. No shift is yet in stone.

[ToastedRavs]

What does this 18z look like? Nebraska throwing in the towel?

 

I don't know what model they are looking at,but the 18z GFS I see is showing a foot or more from south central Nebraska into Lincoln and Omaha. Also a foot or more throughout central Iowa and much of Wisconsin. Not sure what they are looking at

[Stormgeek]

 

Here I sit, broken hearted,

 

The models looked good, til the SE trend started,

 

I watched closely, every day,

 

As Tom and Geos, stole the storm away,

 

As they all enjoy a blizzard, we'll cry bust,

 

And have an advisory, of blowing dust. 

Us northerners must stay strong. Believe in the shift back NW!

[hlcater]

Here I sit, broken hearted,

 

The models looked good, til the SE trend started,

 

I watched closely, every day,

 

As Tom and Geos, stole the storm away,

 

As they all enjoy a blizzard, we'll cry bust,

 

And have an advisory, of blowing dust. 

Yea, that is a very well written poem. Also laughed.

[NEJeremy]

I don't know what model they are looking at,but the 18z GFS I see is showing a foot or more from south central Nebraska into Lincoln and Omaha. Also a foot or more throughout central Iowa and much of Wisconsin. Not sure what they are looking at

Also the 12Z Euro which shifted north, the Euro parallel, 65% of the GFS ensembles and the Canadian all nail Nebraska. Must be looking at the DGEX?

[Jaycee]

ROTFL...gotta say, that was a well-written poem there buddy. Def got a kick out of it.

 

Hang in there. No shift is yet in stone.

Lol I do what i can. In all seriousness though, not a huge deal even if we do get shafted, it's just weather. Plus it's too early to even write this off, especially given that most models are in our favor. I was just speaking hypothetically as we all know what has happened around here in the past few winters. Really interested to see what the GFS does here soon!

[gosaints]

Also the 12Z Euro which shifted north, the Euro parallel, 65% of the GFS ensembles and the Canadian all nail Nebraska. Must be looking at the DGEX?

Every single model could trend southeast for the next couple runs and the towel still shouldnt be thrown.

[CentralNebWeather]

Well said nejeremy

[winterfreak]

Not sure why NE peeps are worried. You're in a great spot. People like me on the southern fringe that need to have the towel ready.

[Tom]

Every single model could trend southeast for the next couple runs and the towel still shouldnt be thrown.

Yup, the SE trend can continue for the next 2 days and once the energy is sampled you have a stronger storm and boom...the NW shift begins.  Can't rule anything out that's for sure.

[BrianJK]

lol Tom is 0.1 inch short. if that verifies, that'd be crazy.

 

Naw, making an asinine statement like the one below with such conviction 5+ days out would be crazy

 

yeah except the SE shift won't happen, or at least there won't be a significant shift SE that would give Chicago a snowstorm. 

[Money]

You don't get the joke do you