pack402 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Raining now. No mixing yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 What are your guys's opinions of using the models that aren't short-term models now that the storm has started? The GFS and the Canadian and the 12 km NAM all look great for Omaha now but shouldn't we only be looking at the short-term models? When I look at the short-term models they have a bigger dry slot and keep our totals closer to 8 inches. Just wondering if I should be that excited about the other models showing more when they technically aren't short-term models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 What are your guys's opinions of the models that aren't short-term models? The GFS and the Canadian and the 12 km NAM all look great for Omaha now but shouldn't we only be looking at the short-term models? When I look at the short-term models they have a bigger dry slot and keep our totals closer to 8 inches. Just wondering if I should be that excited about the other models showing more when they technically aren't short-term models.By no means am I a pro at this, but I would look at current radar/upper air analysis. To this point it looks like this thing is a wrapped up beast and we should all be good, also thunder snow should be a lock from Columbus, York, Lincoln and towards Omaha. I think that because it's the closest to the pivot point of the low, either way radar should start ripping as this storm approaches our southeast; that's my two cents.......mean while snow is finally falling continuously, hoping it doesn't stop for 18 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ya, im worried about a dryslot too. But Cantore is in Sioux City so maybe it wont happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 The HRRR keeps with the slight east and se push. Yes there will be a dry slot around here, but looking better for actually achieving warning criteria snows. Not often I say this, but what I would give to live in central Nebraska, rather than central Iowa! Congrats out there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 I don't think the dry slot is going to surge into Nebraska. If the storm is going to hit a roadblock somewhere near I-70 and then turn ENE and take the dry slot that way. I think Nebraska City could dry slot, but not much farther north. Down another degree here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Ok this wasn't modeled. Primary low jumped west. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 What are the implications of that occurring? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 What are the implications of that occurring? Storm may slow up a bit. It could jump back east in another hour. 4z HRRR Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 35 and a light mix right now. primarily rain, but you can see fat flakes mixing in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 i assume its raining here in Lincoln right now. Too lazy to get up and check. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 i assume its raining here in Lincoln right now. Too lazy to get up and check. it is, lightly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 This is one interesting storm to track Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 it is, lightlymeh, storm isn't even supposed to get going here until like 6am anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Storm may slow up a bit. It could jump back east in another hour. 4z HRRR http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160202/0400Z/f015/acckucherasnowc.pngMan on the 4Z, the low gets down to 988mb and basically sits stationary in north central Kansas for the last 7 hours of the run. really pushes the dry slot up to Omaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Heavy snow with winds now gusting to 35 mph. Nws Hastings has my forecast for potentially another 17 inches on top of what I have which is pushing 6.5 - 7.0 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Man on the 4Z, the low gets down to 988mb and basically sits stationary in north central Kansas for the last 7 hours of the run. really pushes the dry slot up to OmahaI saw that. Crazy but it keeps on giving huge amounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's unfortunate but I can't disagree, the dry slot hangs over LNK OMA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 really pushes the dry slot up to Omahaewwwww Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 It's unfortunate but I can't disagree, the dry slot hangs over LNK OMA.hopefully its wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 hopefully its wrongThe slot isn't as bad here as it is in Omaha, it kind of goes due east of our country and continues over OMA down through Plattsmouth. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160202/0000Z/f014/crefc.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like the only models that caught the westward jog of the low was the RGEM and 4km NAM. 25°, still falling. No fog yet. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Looks like the only models that caught the westward jog of the low was the RGEM and 4km NAM.Geos what are your thoughts for Lincoln? I'm torn, the HRRR gives us 8", but the slot scares me, yet at the same time the RGEM has drilled us with 18". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 The slot isn't as bad here as it is in Omaha, it kind of goes due east of our country and continues over OMA down through Plattsmouth. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/models/hrrr/20160202/0000Z/f014/crefc.pngIt will still have to be watched though. That dryslot could be the difference between getting 8" and 14" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Geos what are your thoughts for Lincoln? I'm torn, the HRRR gives us 8", but the slot scares me, yet at the same time the RGEM has drilled us with 18". It could be close. Sometimes the HRRR can have a NW bias and push things too far at the end of its range. If convection is really strong or if the low appears to be taking a jog north, then it could dry slot by you. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 It could be close. Sometimes the HRRR can have a NW bias and push things too far at the end of its range. If convection is really strong or if the low appears to be taking a jog north, then it could dry slot by you.Thanks man. The anxiety has never been stronger, praying for the slot to stay away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Thanks man. The anxiety has never been stronger, praying for the slot to stay away.Id say we are good for at least 8" here in Lincoln and Money is good for about $25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Primary low still sitting west. This storm could wind up in western KS and just come shooting ENE in the morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Anyone have the Euro snow amounts for 0Z? Also in looking at the 5Z mesoanalysis and what the HRRR is showing for 5Z, the low pressure is definitely off. Mesoanalysis still has it in southeastern Colorado and the HRRR says it should be in Oklahoma Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 The trends on HRRR is stall, stall, stall...or even retrograde! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 With this storm moving slower, does that mean that snow totals could possibly go up here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Snowball Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 No, it goes northeast of us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 With this storm moving slower, does that mean that snow totals could possibly go up here? Yes.HRRR isn't doing a good job with low placement right now. If I was in eastern NE, I would ride the RGEM as this point.Dry slot could come into Nebraska, but maybe further west. Wondering what kind of effect this is going to have further east now. Precip start time later in the afternoon? 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Yes.HRRR isn't doing a good job with low placement right now. If I was in eastern NE, I would ride the RGEM as this point.Dry slot could come into Nebraska, but maybe further west. Wondering what kind of effect this is going to have further east now. Precip start time later in the afternoon?more precip breaking out over northern kansas and southern nebraska as we speak Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 It looks like it might have rained lightly here. Was expecting precip to be here by now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Very nice conveyor belt of moisture. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 this is basically turning into a nowcast-- who would have thought this 24 hours ago?? This thing was locked in for days when it was in PAC-- then most thought things would get more clarity once it was sampled better-- yeah right. Even though my location is not going to see the heaviest snow-- this is really fun to track,, and who really knows at this point? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Very nice conveyor belt of moisture. moisture_020216.png Central Nebraska is going to get hammered, can already tell. If anything this storm has slowed way down. Look at that precip shield. Coming straight at us and the low isn't even moving East yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Tons of lightning strikes with that precip in Kansas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 2, 2016 Report Share Posted February 2, 2016 Alright bedtime here. Hopefully when I wake up around 6:30 it's pouring snow here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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