January 2014 in the PNW

[Phil]

I don't trust many deterministic runs outside 7 days right now, but the NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecast System), has moved up timing significantly for precipitation.

NAEFS basics:

• Array of physically plausible forecasts (NCEP and CMC) used
• Lower resolution than GFS/GEM (drops to about 100 km vs. GFS 45km)
• Model uncertainty is only included in the CMC EPS, via model physics
• Low resolutions 'controls' are run along with the many other runs that were perturbed. Control run uses same initialization as deterministic GFS/GEM, just lower resolution

EDIT: How can I add a photo using these forums? I wanted to attach a photo of an EPSgram, showing the predicted PDX precip. If someone could help, that would be excellent. When I select image, the address provided wasn't accepted.

 

Thanks guys. Figured it out. I use these quite often on my blog, as I find them the most accurate up to 10 days out.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/ensemble/data2/combine/images/2014012212_054@007_E1_pdx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

 

Those error bars encompass the entire range of outcomes..

[Phil]

Things are looking very promising today. Some good GFS runs, improvement on the ensemble, and continued improvement on the ECMWF ensemble. Looks like Feb could be our month.

I'm not seeing anything that suggests a significant blast is on the way, more like a 1-2 week episode of Aleutian ridging and periodic onshore flow.

 

The MJO is in a battle with the stratosphere/sun, to put it simply. The NAM state should continue to drop, overall, with the PV breaking up vertically and the anti-cyclones up there stretching/losing stability.

 

I think December will end up being the coldest month of the winter, relative to average.

[Bryant]

Things are looking very promising today. Some good GFS runs, improvement on the ensemble, and continued improvement on the ECMWF ensemble. Looks like Feb could be our month.

 

I do believe the -PNA forecasted for the beginning of the month will be short lived. However, signals are pointing towards a return of cold around mid month, so we'll have to see. If climo is correct, MJO activity will begin to increase soon, and it's possible the Maritime Continent and West Pac regions are favored based off SST's. If that's the case, last 1/2 half of Feb and into March may be the late winter rally the majority of this board would love to see.

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2empxu0.jpg

[Bryant]

I'm not seeing anything that suggests a significant blast is on the way, more like a 1-2 week episode of Aleutian ridging and periodic onshore flow.

 

The MJO is in a battle with the stratosphere/sun, to put it simply. The NAM state should continue to drop, overall, with the PV breaking up vertically and the anti-cyclones up there stretching/losing stability.

 

I think December will end up being the coldest month of the winter, relative to average.

 

Which is fine by me! I don't need close to single digit temps once again, just a snowier pattern

[Dan the Weatherman]

I do believe the -PNA forecasted for the beginning of the month will be short lived. However, signals are pointing towards a return of cold around mid month, so we'll have to see. If climo is correct, MJO activity will begin to increase soon, and it's possible the Maritime Continent and West Pac regions are favored based off SST's. If that's the case, last 1/2 half of Feb and into March may be the late winter rally the majority of this board would love to see.

 

http://i41.tinypic.com/2empxu0.jpg

 

I am just hoping for any change that would bring a series of good storms to the west coast from CA to WA for much needed rain and snow. CA just can't buy a drop of rain this year!

[HighlandExperience]

Which is fine by me! I don't need close to single digit temps once again, just a snowier pattern

 

Same here. Who cares about record cold temps if it is bone dry. 

 

I will take heavy wet snow any day over what we experienced in December. Plus are heaviest snowfalls seem to occur with marginal temps. I could care less about smashing cold records. 

[AnthonyC]

Looking better

 

 

Where do you get these charts?  Do you have to pay for them?

 

Can someone post the Seattle output...

[Canadian guy]

Here is the link for Vancouver -  http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Bryant]

Where do you get these charts? Do you have to pay for them?

 

Can someone post the Seattle output...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[GHweatherChris]

Which is fine by me! I don't need close to single digit temps once again, just a snowier pattern

Amen!!

[snow_wizard]

I do believe the -PNA forecasted for the beginning of the month will be short lived. However, signals are pointing towards a return of cold around mid month, so we'll have to see. If climo is correct, MJO activity will begin to increase soon, and it's possible the Maritime Continent and West Pac regions are favored based off SST's. If that's the case, last 1/2 half of Feb and into March may be the late winter rally the majority of this board would love to see.

 

I think the first half of Feb has a better chance than you think. I will admit there is quite a bit of uncertainty whether the coldest weather of the month will be early or more toward mid month though. Pretty hard to ignore the strong -PNA signal being shown on the Euro ensemble in early Feb. Looks like something that would persist.

[Jesse]

I like both cold and snow. Hope nobody here is mad at me for that.

[50shadesofvan]

Those error bars encompass the entire range of outcomes..

Hey, I should have explained the NAEFS EPSgram a bit better.  The long black error bars show every solution...but the yellow is what you want to focus on...highest is 75%, lowest is 25% of solutions with the median the black line embedded in the yellow.

 

Hope that helps a bit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like both cold and snow. Hope nobody here is mad at me for that.

 

There were mostly sunny skies in Salem today and my car thermometer said 52, I thought of spring.

[westcoastexpat]

Red flag warnings in January !?!?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just wish the timing would move up at least a little.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Long range GFS!

Cold... continues to push timing back... Getting cooler around hour 216ish starts getting super cold around hour 288...  Rinse and repeat.

[Guest Monty67]

Long range GFS!

Looks DRY. 0.09" for seattle. Is that what you were noticing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks DRY. 0.09" for seattle. Is that what you were noticing.

 

No, I was noticing the cold.

[BLI snowman]

Just wish the timing would move up at least a little.

 

You keep saying that. It's been showing the ridge dying over the NW on the 29th-30th for awhile now. And showing cold air infiltrating around the 2nd. Been moving up. 

[GobBluth]

 could be some needed rain for California.

[westcoastexpat]

Long range GFS!

 

It's always the long range it seems... the long range that never comes...

[Jesse]

It's always the long range it seems... the long range that never comes...

 

We haven't seen this much action in the long range for a while.

 

Last time we did I recall it getting pretty cold a few weeks later. Maybe this time we'll fare better in the snow department.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, well, well. Another GFS run, another cold/snow tease beyond day 10. It's nice to look at, but that's about as far as you can take it. It's all just eye candy out in la-la land, like it's supposed to be. I mean, it's cool to see it on 3 consecutive GFS runs, but yeah....

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en
Hey, hey! We get a trough in the next 10 days! ONE trough....

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif

[Jesse]

Well, well, well. Another GFS run, another cold/snow tease beyond day 10. It's nice to look at, but that's about as far as you can take it. It's all just eye candy out in la-la land, like it's supposed to be. I mean, it's cool to see it on 3 consecutive GFS runs, but yeah....

 

All cold and snow events start out as hints in the long range.

[Jesse]

By the way, is there an ignore feature on this forum? 

[snow_wizard]

Cold... continues to push timing back... Getting cooler around hour 216ish starts getting super cold around hour 288...  Rinse and repeat.

Negative, negative, negative...wash rinse repeat.

[snow_wizard]

It's no mystery why I'm mostly avoiding the forum these days. The models get better and better but everyone seems to think they aren't.

[snow_wizard]

Nice analog composite tonight.  This is day 11, but the day 8 composite is by far the best I've seen yet.

 

[Brennan]

Pretty soon we’re all going to be reacting like this to GFS runs inside day 5!!!

 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty soon we’re all going to be reacting like this to GFS runs inside day 5!!!

 

 

I sure hope so.  Reading all of these nervous Nellie posts is about to drive me insane.  How anyone can be gloomy about tonight's GFS is beyond my comprehension.

[Guest Winterdog]

This ain't too shabby either.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are good!

[Brennan]

This also validates... ok it doesn’t validate, but it gives some more power to the extreme SOI values last week. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Negative, negative, negative...wash rinse repeat.

how you see this as a negative post just shows how unbalanced you are being. I only stated what the models show... Not wish casting that it all happens. Try taking off your rose colored glasses that I was negative and read it from a perspective that I was just talking about what the model showed. Your being a bit ridiculous. I have never once said this would not happen, nor winter is over, but yet you attack me. Sorry I am not jumping all over something we have seen the models spit out over and over again in the 10 plus day period...

[TT-SEA]

Pretty soon we’re all going to be reacting like this to GFS runs inside day 5!!!

 

 

 

This was SOOOOOOOO fun to watch.      I have watched it 3 times now.     Love it.

[Sometimesdylan]

It's no mystery why I'm mostly avoiding the forum these days. The models get better and better but everyone seems to think they aren't.

Right there with you. It's okay to have your own opinion, but bashing others for sharing their optimism is not good at all.

 

 

Nice analog composite tonight.  This is day 11, but the day 8 composite is by far the best I've seen yet.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

 

 

Round and round the ridge goes, where it ends up... nobody knows.

[TT-SEA]

And who was the lone 49ers fan there???    Why would he want to put up with you guys??