Phil Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 One error the CFS seems to be making is making the south central US way too cold. The ECMWF models say that is totally bogus. If it's wrong about that I would expect the cold penetration in the West to be greater.Actually, thus far it's been the other way around. The ECMWF has been trying to pop a SE ridge since early January, which has failed to verify. The Pacific block is a near certainty. The SE-ridge would be a downstream response and it's existence will depend on a number of factors that are difficult to determine right now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather girl Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Welcome back! Thanks, Jim. :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The control model for the ECMWF ensemble shows a PV eventually moving over WA. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012512/noram/eps_z500a_c_noram_53.png Yeah, that's essentially what the 06z showed on that day. 1933 repeat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah, that's essentially what the 06z showed on that day. 1933 repeat?That was the cold wave when Seneca fell to -54f for an Oregon record, right? Btw could you link me to that site that has top ten warmest and coldest months for PDX? I recently got a new laptop and lost the old link. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The CFS has been consistently showing a cold wave in early Feb and one in late Feb the last several runs. Hopefully we can just bridge the gap and have it cold all month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Pretty cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 What an amazing couple of model runs! It is hard not to get excited reading the last few pages especially if the trend continues tonight. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Hi all. Here's a probability of exceedence map for NAEFS. This one is for a surface temps of less than -5C (or 23F) Sorry, but I'm an avid NAEFS lover. No shame. I find their skill to be much improved than just GFS/CMC ensemble forecast systems alone. I.e.: Essentially all of Canada and most of CONUS Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z is beautiful starting at day 9 through the end of the run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140125/18/gfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht_s.gif Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z is beautiful starting at day 9 through the end of the run. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/20140125/18/gfs_namer_276_500_vort_ht_s.gifAs cold if not colder than the 12z and 06z, but still no moisture up here. Hopefully the timing continues to move up. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 18z is beautiful starting at day 9 through the end of the run.Looks like snow possible in northern sound lowlands as early as late Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
50shadesofvan Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Sorry, I couldn't resist. 1 Quote 50 Shades of Van: A weather blog dedicated to providing the public with easily accessible and downright interesting weather information for Vancouver, BC and the Pacific Northwest Latest Post: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/10/23/chaos-in-the-pacific-storm-parade-route-unknown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Early/mid February. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 That was the cold wave when Seneca fell to -54f for an Oregon record, right? Btw could you link me to that site that has top ten warmest and coldest months for PDX? I recently got a new laptop and lost the old link. Yep, Portland had a high of 23 and a low of 12 on 2/9/1933. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/pdxclimate/index.php Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like snow possible in northern sound lowlands as early as late Thursday. Yeah, the Friday storm is increasingly looking like a potential snowmaker up this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 That ridge over AK is pure insanity on the 18z GFS. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yeah, the Friday storm is increasingly looking like a potential snowmaker up this way.I'm liking my chances in the Gorge as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 The control model for the ECMWF ensemble shows a PV eventually moving over WA. http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012512/noram/eps_z500a_c_noram_53.png Looks like a spitting image of 2-2-89. Just a little late to the party. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0202.php Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westiztehbest Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 That ridge over AK is pure insanity on the 18z GFS.Monster ridge from hell. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 36/32 out here today with raging winds. This has been hands down the windiest two day stretch since I moved out here. Crazy that it was 70 in Medford today. Is that a new January record for them? 73 in North Bend is also pretty wild. Hopefully the "extremes beget extremes" theory pays off next month. No. 71 on the 20th and 21st in 1961, 1981 respectively. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like a spitting image of 2-2-89. Just a little late to the party. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0202.phpAre you feeling this one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 25, 2014 Report Share Posted January 25, 2014 Monster ridge from hell. That baby isn't from hell in my book, quite heavenly actually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 18z operational is insane. The 18z ensembles aren't quite as good as the 12z ones. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 The 18z operational is insane. The 18z ensembles aren't quite as good as the 12z ones.Just what I was typing. 18Z GFS ensemble mean is warmer than the 12z, drops to about -8C in Seattle compared to -11C earlier. Not as many drop below -15C as earlier either, but still looks pretty good. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitechristmas Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 That baby isn't from hell in my book, quite heavenly actually. Now I'm confused! Do we want this ridge (FOR COLD AND SNOW!) or don't we?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Now I'm confused! Do we want this ridge (FOR COLD AND SNOW!) or don't we??Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Are you feeling this one? I certainly wouldn't go as far as to say that will happen, but I like evolution and how we've seemed to put ourselves in an other shoe dropping kind of position. My only word of warning at this point is the fact this pattern seems to kinda want to piece meal its way together. There is no one pattern crasher, just quite a few smaller scale events eventually melding into something significant. Typically the long range stuff is slightly more reliable (relatively speaking) when we have a better catalyst. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitechristmas Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yes Great, thanks! Do the models look to be supporting a trend for this ridge placement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Great, thanks! Do the models look to be supporting a trend for this ridge placement?They are mostly all in support of a trend for the ridge to retrograde westward and amplify. Ridges that are from hell are blocking high pressure systems just to our west, sitting on top of us or just to our east. If they form around the Aleutians like the one shown, they are likely to pull colder air down from the north over the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z - The operational gets a hold of some crack(or maybe Meth?) beyond day 10 delivering an ultra mega-blast to the Pacific Northwest. Don't do drugs, kids! 18z never learned that. 18z GFS EnsemblesYeah, more crack smoking. Portland - Not as cold as 6z/12z with the mean temp running around -5c. Still plenty of cold members however. Would have liked to seen the cold momentum continue. Onto 00z! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Basically I am taking 18z with a grain of pepper and rely more heavily on 00z GFS/EURO(and GEM Ensembles) especially when 7 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Now I'm confused! Do we want this ridge (FOR COLD AND SNOW!) or don't we??Most definitely yes. We want it offshore near 150 W and amplifying well north up through Alaska and over the poles if at all possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whitechristmas Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 They are mostly all in support of a trend for the ridge to retrograde westward and amplify. Ridges that are from hell are blocking high pressure systems just to our west, sitting on top of us or just to our east. If they form around the Aleutians like the one shown, they are likely to pull colder air down from the north over the area. Thanks for the info! Sure would love to see this pattern evolve into a great snowy event for us all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Enumclaw hit 60F today ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Enumclaw hit 60F today ?? 63 on the Central Coast at Newport. Very springlike. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 Enumclaw hit 60F today ?? 62 here. Screw spring... felt like early summer eating lunch on deck this afternoon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 62 here. Screw spring... felt like early summer eating lunch on deck this afternoon. I'm so ready for summer too. 50/26 for EUG today. Not bad... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utrex Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 What if the ridge moves all the way off to NW Pacific and the PV moves in to the GoA? Pineapple Express? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 What if the ridge moves all the way off to NW Pacific and the PV moves in to the GoA? Pineapple Express? Bring it on... in addition to cold and snow I am really hoping for a ton of rain in February. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 26, 2014 Report Share Posted January 26, 2014 2 hours until 00z GFS2 1/2 hours until 00z GEM4 hours 18 minutes until 00z EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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