luterra Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 500mb lancscape at 165 hours looks like a specific part of a female's anatomy. One of the oddest looking patterns I have seen. Lots of cutoff features, lots of variables at play. Can't say I'm strongly convinced of anything past hr 120. That strange tightly wound cutoff high over northern AK is combining with the polar vortex over Baffin Bay to generate crazy strong meridional flow. Not sure what to make of it all yet, but it better be something fun :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 One of the oddest looking patterns I have seen. Lots of cutoff features, lots of variables at play. Can't say I'm strongly convinced of anything past hr 120. That strange tightly wound cutoff high over northern AK is combining with the polar vortex over Baffin Bay to generate crazy strong meridional flow. Not sure what to make of it all yet, but it better be something fun :-) Lots of moving parts. I hope no one is in love with any one scenario at this point. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhill Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 No snow storm initially but a little later on we get hit! Nice... That initial push warms us up but we rebound to snow and cold quickly.When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lots of moving parts. I hope no one is in love with any one scenario at this point. Nah just a little infatuated... but not sure with what yet. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhill Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lots of moving parts. I hope no one is in love with any one scenario at this point. Not at all...way to many wildcards at play here...just looking at the possibilities on a run to run basis! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south.I am thinking of us Puget sounders... To far out to worry about but nice to see an attempt for some white stuff. We shall see... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south. Your right, it all depends on where that low tracks. The potential is HUGE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhill Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Your right, it all depends on where that low tracks. The potential is HUGE.Yup...then again there could be NO westerlies on the 00z haha...could be bone dry. HOWEVER, the GFS has been very consistent in bringing some sort of westerly flow into the west coast starting in the 180-240 timeframe... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hate to see the 18z water down the cold. I figured we'd have a run like that today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ugh Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhill Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 HAHA, one run, we'll see a lot of wavering with the dynamic pattern change that is progged, like Dewey said, I wouldn't get to wrapped up in any one model run, you may crash and burn. What we do know is that it looks like we will get cold, what happens after it arrives...good luck predicting the few days following it's arrival. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Cool little forecasting app/tool for the computer. Check it out in action. That is just letting it run a time loop showing temp and precip type but it does much more. Very cool app for the PC! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hopefully the 18z GFS ensembles will show the OP is an outlier and way too warm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hate to see the 18z water down the cold. I figured we'd have a run like that today.Yep it was inevitable for us to see a run like that. The good thing is though, it really wasn't that bad. At least it didn't take away the cold completely, although I bet we see a run that does that by tomorrow night, we usually do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hate to see the 18z water down the cold. I figured we'd have a run like that today.I will take the cold being watered down if it means snow. I think it would be a good trade off. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ugh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hopefully the 18z GFS ensembles will show the OP is an outlier and way too warm. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_18z/f168.html Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mark Nelsen is on board. High 28, Low 15 Thursday at PDX.http://ftpcontent.worldnow.com/kptv/wce_assets/ibs_web_7-day.jpg Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mark Nelsen is on board. High 28, Low 15 Thursday at PDX.Now we just need Mark to add some flakes. No, I'm not talking about Brian McMillan. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 One thing is for certain, the models are a lock through HR 24. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 One thing is for certain, the models are a lock through HR 24.Ooooohhhh Should I break out the Yak Trax, snow shovel, ice melter and take out a second mortgage to go stock up @ Costco with s**t I dont need? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Don't you mean 24 minutes? Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ooooohhhh Should I break out the Yak Trax, snow shovel, ice melter and take out a second mortgage to go stock up @ Costco with s**t I dont need?You should have already done those things, you don't wanna get caught with your pants down on this one!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Huge changes going on in the stratosphere right now, I counted 7 different breaking eddys on last night's 00z RAOB analysis. This time favoring the PNW and western Cadada.The PV is going to bifurcate, and coupled PVA's will disperse and dampen. Convection will soon erupt over the IO/WPAC as CDS support is lessened..expect that Hadley Cell to begin pumping, as the Walker Cell type flow becomes jostled. the models are having a really differcult time handeling this pattern it will be interisting to see where this gos mid to late february and March.another question is the AO how do you see that playing out.one thing is clear we are going into a new pattern for the nation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 31, 2014 Report Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mark Nelsen is on board. High 28, Low 15 Thursday at PDX. Warm bias. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree, kind of. 18z appears to keep the undercutting to a minimum, at least out to Thursday. I think this will be more prolonged, per Rob's comments earlier.I wouldn't trust that guy he's full of . Columbus Day Storm. Yep. When that low's moisture arrives to PDX, that would be a snowstorm for sure, where that low goes would determine the longevity of that snow...then possibly a massive ice storm before transitioning out....unless that low were to stay south.Oh ya, tons of potential. 18z shows a snow event, then major ice storm for PDX/Gorge. Warm bias. Yes. In my opinion if 00z runs tonight mirror 12z we may need to shave a few more degrees off these temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z NAM in 1 hour 40 minutes00z GFS in 3 hours 25 minutes00z GEM in 4 hours 30 minutes00z EURO in 6 hours 10 minutes(full run 6 hours 51 minutes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I wouldn't trust that guy he's full of s**t. Yep. Oh ya, tons of potential. 18z shows a snow event, then major ice storm for PDX/Gorge. Yes. In my opinion if 00z runs tonight mirror 12z we may need to shave a few more degrees off these temps. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z GFS Ensembles. Operational was the outlier and warmer than the mean through February 9th. The usual increasing spread amongst ensemble members increases beyond day 9-10. Portland http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Seattlehttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Seattlehttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.pngLooking good, and 2 members showing some precip around the 6th/7th timeframe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z OP was definitely on the warm side of things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z OP was definitely on the warm side of things.It usually is. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It would be so cool if these ensembles could be kept in one place--you know, you can read the 00 after the 18 after the 12, etc. It would be so easy to make comparisons then. I'm just not very sophistimicated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It would be so cool if these ensembles could be kept in one place--you know, you can read the 00 after the 18 after the 12, etc. It would be so easy to make comparisons then. I'm just not very sophistimicated.Meteograms my friend, meteograms. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Funny... http://blogs.seattletimes.com/fyi-guy/2014/01/30/map-shows-biggest-snow-wimps-yes-were-one-of-them/ Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Now we just need Mark to add some flakes. No, I'm not talking about Brian McMillan.No shortage of them on here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 4:47 PM UpdateThe system for Monday can already be see up in Yukon. You can see on IR Loop it's progressing southward slowly. Where exactly this tracks will play a role in how much precip we see, or if it's largely dry. If it slides a bit offshore it could pick up a bit of moisture. If it tracks further inland things should be fairly dry.http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12Also, I personally am not ruling out the remote chance for a surprise dusting to snow to quick 1" with this, but everything has to come together just right. This system as it heads south is also what will dig out the arctic trough over western Washington and Oregon bringing very cold air into the area Tuesday - Saturday(possibly beyond?). So all of the pieces are in place and the pattern progression can be seen in real-time on IR Loop instead of merely relying on the models to see the what and when. I really like that you can track things now with the eye and not rely solely on stupid computers. http://i60.tinypic.com/n5sgop.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Meteograms my friend, meteograms. You're right. I was just thinking they would be easy to find on the forum--but I hear you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 You're right. I was just thinking they would be easy to find on the forum--but I hear you.Maybe one of the hardcore geeks on here can make us some panel charts Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.