2-17 Lower Lakes Winter Storm

[Madtown]

good to hear. I find it pretty funny on the lack of coordination this winter between offices. Dane county -2-4" MKE office- Prairie du chien 3-5" LSE office - Dubuque 3" DVN office - Rockford 3-7" LOT office. I know its been a crazy winter, but they always used to end the AFD's with thanks for the cord (insert NWS office)

[East Dubzz]

This system is gonna put me pretty close to 50" for the year. Last I saw for Dubuque was 45.2", but I don't know if that's including yesterday's snow or not. I wish I knew a place that kept that updated.

[Scott26]

The difference between the NAM and Euro is quite ridiculous at this point.

[Tom]

Tell me about it...18z NAM weak sauce this run...

[Tom]

Its weird to see the NAM go less bullish on qpf totals...meanwhile, both GFS/EURO up their qpf amounts and LOT mentioning the 12z run on GFS showing the wave going neg tilt and same goes for the Euro.  Probably just a bad run in the end.

[MarcusBeier]

So what are we thinking for DTX? Pretty clearly everyone is forecast (safely) 2-6 inches allowing themselves room to not look foolish. Our NOAA office will decide the Adisory level this evening i presume..any ideas

[Sciascia]

Here's something I saw elsewhere. Take it FWIW:
 

 

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1202 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2014

VALID FEB 16/1200 UTC THRU FEB 20/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM AND GFS

 

...SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ADVANCING TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEM GLOBAL
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY
AND ADVANCE PROGRESSIVELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH MON. THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS THOUGH IS EXPECTED
TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EAST...AND THE LATEST MODELS SUPPORT A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IMPACTING THE OH VLY/LWR GRT LAKES REGION
AND NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AND TUES. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
INTENSIFYING SFC LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LIFT
NEWD INTO THE LWR GRT LAKES REGION BY EARLY TUES...BUT THERE IS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK INVOF THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS HAVE BOTH TRENDED STRONGER AND BIT SLOWER
WHICH IS A TREND TWD THE ALREADY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER 00Z
UKMET/00Z GEM GLOBAL AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 06Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z
ECENS MEAN HAVE TRENDED TWD THE STRONGER CONSENSUS AS WELL. THE
00Z UKMET APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO SLOW...AND ESP WITH
INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPSTREAM MEAN LYR FLOW. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS
MAY STILL BE A TAD TOO FAST...AND ESP WITH THEIR TREND CONTINUING
TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER. THE STRONGEST MODEL CLUSTER FOR THE TIME
BEING IS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GEM GLOBAL.

[East Dubzz]

WPC has me just in the 70% shot at at least 4"... New LaCrosse graphic has me in 4-6" range.

[East Dubzz]

LaCrosse just issed warnings for their entire forecast area.

[Madtown]

WS Warning for south west wisco

[Tom]

Tonight's 00z runs should be interesting as the system will be fully sampled by then.  I'm leaning towards a EURO/GGEM Blend with a more amped system as southern stream intensifies heading up into the Lower Lakes.

[Sciascia]

3-7" in the grid forecast with heavy snow wording. LOT's map with 4-6" over the entire area.

[DominicR]

LOT sounds great:

ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT DYNAMICS...AND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SOME HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...I DID NOT CHOSE TO UPGRADE
AN AREAS TO A WARNING...MAINLY DUE TO THE SYSTEMS RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE NATURE. EVEN A SLOWER SOLUTION IS STILL RELATIVELY
PROGRESSIVE. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS MAY
ONLY LAST OVER ANY GIVEN AREA FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD...AND AS SUCH
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY STILL ONLY END UP GETTING INTO THE 4 TO 6
INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTIVE NATURE TO THE SNOW COULD EASILY
LEAD TO SOME AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL LIKELY FALL IN A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD. I WILL LET THE OVERNIGHT
SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THINGS TO SEE IF A SHORTER FUSED WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY EVEN FOR THE
IMPACTS OF A FEW HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW.

 

[Sciascia]

LOT discussion is up. Considered going with a warning, but chose not to. Mentions slight potential for thunder, but not enough to actually put it in a forecast.

 

All in all, exciting stuff.

[Scott26]

18Z GFS gives in to King Euro. Slows down the progression of the system and takes on a negative tilt. With mesoscale features being favorable for heavy snow rates and a slower progression of the system the 6 plus definitely looks to be possible for some areas. 18Z GFS a solid 4-6 inches with 6 plus amounts in NE IL, SE WI and Northern Indiana.

[Yerf]

Since this will be effecting the afternoon commute, surprised they don't go with a warning. It might be a mess out there

[East Dubzz]

18Z GFS gives in to King Euro. Slows down the progression of the system and takes on a negative tilt. With mesoscale features being favorable for heavy snow rates and a slower progression of the system the 6 plus definitely looks to be possible for some areas. 18Z GFS a solid 4-6 inches with 6 plus amounts in NE IL, SE WI and Northern Indiana.

With all due respect to the Euro and how it appears to be winning out in this one, it really has not done that great this year.

[Scott26]

With all due respect to the Euro and how it appears to be winning out in this one, it really has not done that great this year.

 

"King Euro" was more of a sarcastic remark lol. But, yeah this is going to be a major win for this model. It had this system sniffed out 3 days ago.

[Tony]

Actually it has done well with larger scale systems but poorly with clippers

[East Dubzz]

Actually it has done well with larger scale systems but poorly with clippers

It usually is the better with the larger scale storms. Problem is, a majority of our storms have been clippers.

[Tony]

Yep and probably heading back to clippers again after next weekend.

[DominicR]

When do you think a good hit it will hit ORD? 11am?

[Geos]

 

GFS

[Trinomial]

I know the morning rush should not be impacted too much, but what's the evening rush looking like? Thanks!

[Tony]

Wit this system now going negative tilt it could slow down a little more and also get a little stronger/wetter. Definitely a fun system brewing and I could see some lollipops of say 10"-12" but that is if we can get some convection thrown in otherwise 5"-10" looking good.

[Money]

RAP looks healthy at HR 18. Widespead 35-40 dbz snows in E IA with 30-35 dbz across WI

[BrianJK]

Oh boy - Driving back from Eagle River, Wi tomorrow.  Second time in as many weeks I will have a challenging ride to deal with.  Bring it on.

[DominicR]

Phil model averaging 3 inches in N IL..

[East Dubzz]

Local met going with 4-6" for Dubuque!

[Sleather]

Phil model averaging 3 inches in N IL..

Seems a bit conservative to me. The Romeoville AFD was just talking about 6":

 

"OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BE GOOD SNOW MAKER FOR THE AREA.

MY CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NEARLY 6 INCHES FOR AREAS ACROSS

NORTHERN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...I DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO

UPGRADE THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING FOR 6+ INCHES AMOUNTS..."

 

[Scott26]

Wit this system now going negative tilt it could slow down a little more and also get a little stronger/wetter. Definitely a fun system brewing and I could see some lollipops of say 10"-12" but that is if we can get some convection thrown in otherwise 5"-10" looking good.

Despite this system going negative tilt it's still far too progressive to have amounts anywhere close to what you said. It looks like the ceiling for this event will probably be 6 inches or so with isolated 7 inches in spots.

[Trinomial]

LOT has 3-7 in my grid. Surprised they even put 7.

[james1976]

im 1 county away from warning. should be looking good regardless

[DominicR]

RAP tom morning looks jacked as hell..

[Madtown]

MKE downplaying this till they are blue in the face. 2-4 in the pin point

[Geos]

I know the morning rush should not be impacted too much, but what's the evening rush looking like? Thanks!

 

Could be pretty crazy. Some models show the heaviest snow right before or during the beginning of rush hour.

 

My point went down to 3-5" now. Was 3-7". Yep, 2-4" for SE WI.

[Tony]

Despite this system going negative tilt it's still far too progressive to have amounts anywhere close to what you said. It looks like the ceiling for this event will probably be 6 inches or so with isolated 7 inches in spots.

Most systems have over achieved this winter so hoping for this trend to continue

[Madtown]

Geos, just think it's funny that the pin points went down and then their graphic switched to area wide 4-6"

[WildWisconsinWeather]

MKE downplaying this till they are blue in the face. 2-4 in the pin point

 

The office downplaying this may well be the luck we need to get off the schneid of nickels and dimes.  You can tell I'm somewhat superstitious.

[Madtown]

I'm with ya on that one wild