Jump to content
The Weather Forums

October 2022 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

Euro is only seeing two highs in the 70s over the next 10 days with four of those days only reaching into the 50s. Our average high temp is 68 today but drops down to 63 by the end of the period. So 60% of upcoming days are forecasted to be below normal. The projected high temp of 53 on 10/7 would be good for a -13 departure! Noice!

9-km ECMWF USA Pressure KFSD 10-day Temperature + Precipitation.png

  • Like 5

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z EPS spaghetti charts are showing a fairly progressive-looking pattern with sharp cooldowns followed by brief warmups. As Tom alluded to earlier, there is broad consensus among EPS members for another cold shot centered around the 13th. Looking like that one has the potential to have even more bite to it than the one moving in later this week. Rollercoaster time!

ens_image.php?geoid=132912&var=201&run=0

  • Like 3

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Niko said:

In NYC for a few days. I arrived Saturday evening and the weather is certainly chilly and wet ever since. Remnants of hurricane Ian still sticking around.. Temps are in the 50s during the day and 40s at nite. Very gloomy. It gets better by midweek or so.

BTW: My first Frost Advisory for back home in Macomb County for Tanite. Temps dipping into the 30's.

 

 

38F on my car dash this morning.

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday was yet another great early October day with a reported 94% of possible sunshine at Grand Rapids the official H/L at GRR was 65/42 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 35 and there is a lot of frost on the top of the cars and roofs here. The official low so far at GRR looks to be 36. For today the average H/L is 67/42 the record high of 85 was a three peat in 1900, 1919 and 1974. The record low of a chilly 23 was in 1974. The 1st part of this week looks to be sunny and warm then turning colder on Thursday and Friday.

 

Am I reading that correctly? Record high and low were both in 1974? 85/23F would be like a TX forecast - maybe?

  • Like 1

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

I don't know about your back yard but here in MBY the low reached 35 and there is a lot of frost on the roofs and tops of cars. Not so much on the grass areas.

I turned on my phone locations this morning for Macomb and it read 33F. However, I am not sure if my area went lower than that. I think It did because I checked my phone at 7:30AM. Also, this year seems like a lot colder than other October's.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct'22:  Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22:  2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9"

Dec'22:  5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5"

Jan'23:  11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3"

Feb '23:  2.2"  Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4"

March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0"

(Season is @ 37.0")

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Currently in NYC its 51F under cloudy skies and windy conditions w/ spotty showers around.

Quote

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Rain 1

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct'22:  Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22:  2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9"

Dec'22:  5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5"

Jan'23:  11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3"

Feb '23:  2.2"  Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4"

March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0"

(Season is @ 37.0")

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Marshall and Jack-town froze this morning. Color change can commence in earnest!

image.png.705de1826fb870702df176784b6816b0.png

  • Like 5

Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been loving this autumn so far. Coolest start in many years.

It was 48.4°F at 345pm today. By far the coolest afternoon temperature I’ve ever recorded this early in the season.

By contrast, in 2019 it was 98°F here on Oct 2nd. Huge difference this year so far.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

MPX AFD this afternoon already talking about the potential for a large system late next week. That's passed the 7 day but nice to see it mentioned. I think Tom had been talking about a potential large system and colder air in that time frame as well. Time will tell but it's nice to see something more active as well as a widespread freeze at the end of this week.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, james1976 said:

MPX AFD this afternoon already talking about the potential for a large system late next week. That's passed the 7 day but nice to see it mentioned. I think Tom had been talking about a potential large system and colder air in that time frame as well. Time will tell but it's nice to see something more active as well as a widespread freeze at the end of this week.

It's good to see the 12z Euro showing some nice rainfall amounts for the KC area up through the mid west around the 10th.  GFS showing another storm in the time period Tom mentioned.  I'll take this setup again in December, but first lets bring on the rain.

12z Euro

1665662400-YxJJcvcJR78.png

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The "Valley of the Sun" got hit by some rather strong outflows that produced gusty winds throughout the valley.  A line of strong to severe storms fired up north as we got a taste of the seasons first Autumn-like storm system.  It behaved more like a strong CF pushing through the area.  Local mets on TV were saying this system had the characteristis like a typical Autumn storm.

 

image.jpeg

 

As I mentioned above, this system was potent enough to produce a rare Tornado up north in the mountains near Williams, AZ which is just west of Flagstaff.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/nws-investigating-reports-tornado-damage-miles-williams-coconino-county

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last night's EPS weeklies show a lot of blocking up north through the rest of this month...the globals did not see this coming for OCT.  Love seeing that ridge south of Greenland firing up and the continuation of the W NAMER Ridge.  I don't recall seeing to many forecasts aside from the CPC that generally showed a cooler probability across the East.

For our central/southern members, you guys must be salivating at the fact that this month there is no sign of a Ridge!  Man, it's been years since I have not seen the models paint that un-relenting central CONUS ridge in OCT that always seemed to weaken storm systems as they moved into the region.  I'm sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

image.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yesterday was yet another great fall day with 100% of possible sunshine. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 68/34 that low of 34 with a lot of frost, that low of 34 was the coldest low at Grand Rapids since a low of 28 way back on April 28th.  The over night low here in MBY this morning so far is 38 there is just light some light frost on the roof tops. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is now down to 66/46. The record high for today is 87 in 1951 and the record low of 30 was set in 1943 and again in 1965. It looks warm for today and tomorrow before cooling down on Thursday the coldest days this week will be Friday and Saturday.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here in NYC, another raw, cold day w temps into the 40s. Highs will be near 50 or slightly higher. Rain continues all day and into tomorrow b4 finally getting outta here. Lots of sunshine for Thursday and beyond. Temps rebounding into the 60s and maybe near 70F or a little higher. 

 

Went to a really cool restaurant last nite in(Port Washington) called "Louie's." Exellent food. I usually come here when I am in town. 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct'22:  Trace / Normal is 0.0"

Nov'22:  2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9"

Dec'22:  5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5"

Jan'23:  11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3"

Feb '23:  2.2"  Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4"

March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0"

(Season is @ 37.0")

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A couple more above normal days, a brief cool shot, and then back to normal temps. No real shot of rain either. It’ll be close here on the chance of any frost. Average first frost is 10/6 here.

Today
A chance of sprinkles between 2pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 10pm and 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. 
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light west northwest wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. 
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. 
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. 
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 36.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 55.
Friday Night
Areas of frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 35.
Saturday
Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 62.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 45.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 70.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Columbus Day
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

For anyone who is thinking of taking a fall color tour this year here is a updated fall color estimate for Michigan.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/10/michigan-fall-color-update-forecast-tweak-on-peak-fall-color-timing.html
While no where near peak here in my area the color has picked up in the last few days and there is now red and yellow showing up in the area.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fargo is looking at highs in the 40s coming up on Thursday and Friday.

  • Like 2

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

If a new LRC is really starting, the placement of the cold fronts and troughs is making me a little bit nervous for KC.  They seem to be sliding off to the east, with KC only getting the back side.  That would mean quicker warm ups for KC, and less chance of an accompanying storm getting its act together in time to give KC big snows.  The Plains ridge doesn't want to give up.  We'll see . . . . 

The best scenarios for KC happen when the cold air comes down through the Rockies, and then pushes west.  So far, the cold air seems to be targeting the Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Edit:  Canadian has a different solution than the GFS, which is a perfect look for later-season snowstorms in KC.

gem_T2m_us_35.jpg

I'll be nervous also until we get some precip but sign me up for what the Euro is selling on day 10.

image.thumb.png.d5e9f4a0daa0d1ff5df4cb861f805723.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS and Euro couldn't be more different for next weeks weather.  The GFS has a huge ridge out west that extends into NW Canada while the Euro has a deep trough that digs nearly to Mexico.  Fingers crossed that the Euro has this right!

The GFS for the 13th.

500h_anom.na.png

The Euro for the 13th.

500h_anom.na.png

The Canadians take similar to the Euro.

500h_anom.na.png

  • Excited 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS and Euro couldn't be more different for next weeks weather.  The GFS has a huge ridge out west that extends into NW Canada while the Euro has a deep trough that digs nearly to Mexico.  Fingers crossed that the Euro has this right!

The GFS for the 13th.

500h_anom.na.png

The Euro for the 13th.

500h_anom.na.png

The Canadians take similar to the Euro.

500h_anom.na.png

The Canadian has snow all the way down to the Oklahoma Panhandle!

  • Like 2
  • lol 1
  • scream 1

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Last night's EPS weeklies show a lot of blocking up north through the rest of this month...the globals did not see this coming for OCT.  Love seeing that ridge south of Greenland firing up and the continuation of the W NAMER Ridge.  I don't recall seeing to many forecasts aside from the CPC that generally showed a cooler probability across the East.

For our central/southern members, you guys must be salivating at the fact that this month there is no sign of a Ridge!  Man, it's been years since I have not seen the models paint that un-relenting central CONUS ridge in OCT that always seemed to weaken storm systems as they moved into the region.  I'm sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

image.gif

This is one of the prettiest eps runs ever. Just in December, please.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its possible, but very rare this early up there. 

It has snowed here in October only several times in the past 105 years, with the most being 2 inches in the 1910s. (Don't know exactly when)

  • Like 1

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It has snowed here in October only several times in the past 105 years, with the most being 2 inches in the 1910s. (Don't know exactly when)

Probably 1910-11. Maybe year after. I know there were a few in there scattered out, but can't tell you which ones offhand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A piece of energy that came off the trough that moved through the Rockies the past few days will get cut-off for dayssss on end here in the SW.  It won't be until the next major trough enters the PAC NW/B.C. region that will eventually "kick" it out or phase together.  Models are struggling with the storm system during the 10/11-10/13 timeframe.  I think the spike in the AO/NAO teleconnections has something to do with it.

I'm digging the temp trends here as they are being lowered this weekend into next week due to the trough and precip chances.  Did I just see mid 80's in the grid next week???  Been a Longgg time since the PHX Valley has seen temps like these.  #Autumn

 

image.png

 

A rare temperature spread occurred yesterday in and around N IL/IN...up to a 40 degree temp spread from low to high...you don't see this often in the MW...

Screen Shot 2022-10-05 at 2.08.58 AM.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

An interesting scenario could be setting up later next week with the dip in the PNA(-) creating a SW Flow pattern for a period of time.  The combination of the cut-off trough in the SW and the energy diving south into the western US, could create a multi-day scenario whereby this pattern will send pieces of energy into the central/southern CONUS.

@OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Andie I see the start of a multi-day Severe Wx threat firing up down by your region post 14th as the battle of the seasons shall commence down south.  Tis the Season for the 2nd Season...of Severe Wx that is...that's a beautiful map right there for the 4 corners.

image.gif

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another 0.43" of rain fell overnight. Bringing our 5 day rain total since Saturday to 4.12". Today should be the last day with measurable rain for at least the next week! Temperatures tomorrow and Friday could reach 70 degrees especially in the lower spots of Chester County PA. However, temperatures again fall off sharply starting Saturday with a stretch of below normal temps again through at least next Tuesday.
The record high for today is 94 degrees from 1941. The record low is 28 degrees from 1965. The daily rainfall record is 2.04" set way back in 1902.
image.png.7740adb41c7a22d261b0ffcb55b588d2.png
  • Like 2

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted here is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop and spotter observed climate data for the county.  We make no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics.  Unlike NOAA, we do not apply any post observation adjustments to the historical raw data from the NWS observers.  Climate change is natural and is not leading to future calamity. The only true “Climate Deniers” are people who think the climate should be unchanging. Specifically the Chester County PA analysis has only yielded normal and expected cyclical warming and cooling trends since the 1880's. Any model predictions of catastrophic climate change are not science. Pay little attention to data derived from climate models. To date we have yet to validate even one predicted climate or weather event attributable to climate change. Climate science is only advanced by continually questioning it and challenging it based on the actual climate data. 

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 36.3" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7" to date) - 02/27 (0.3")/ 02/01 (0.2") / 1/31 (0.1") / 01/25 (0.8") / 01/23 (0.5") / 12/23 (0.5") / 12/15 (0.3" ) / 2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out my historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com and the #1 source of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Contamination analysis follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and be sure to join the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

NWS Trained Observer   image.png.c611f1f0b6407e819c29024d2b740944.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of like a broken record in days of old, yesterday was yet another great fall day with once again 100% of possible sunshine the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 72/37 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY was 43 and at this time it is 45 with sun and some clouds. For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high of 85 was set in 1900, 1922 and 1946 the record low of 29 was set n 1965 and 2004. Last year on this date the H/L was 69/58. Today looks to be the last day this week with highs in the low 70’s it looks to turn colder for Friday and Saturday but it looks to warm up next week once again.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like a Niña fall and winter.  
Same here dry and not much hope for sufficient rain this Fall.  Three Niña winters aren’t common   Maybe the ocean will go Neutral.  


We’re at 65* and Sunny for the next 10 days.  
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...