October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[Clinton]

More great weather ahead here, big changes showing up next weekend.   Hope it can deliver some rain soon, exciting times ahead.

[hawkstwelve]

Euro is only seeing two highs in the 70s over the next 10 days with four of those days only reaching into the 50s. Our average high temp is 68 today but drops down to 63 by the end of the period. So 60% of upcoming days are forecasted to be below normal. The projected high temp of 53 on 10/7 would be good for a -13 departure! Noice!

[hawkstwelve]

00z EPS spaghetti charts are showing a fairly progressive-looking pattern with sharp cooldowns followed by brief warmups. As Tom alluded to earlier, there is broad consensus among EPS members for another cold shot centered around the 13th. Looking like that one has the potential to have even more bite to it than the one moving in later this week. Rollercoaster time!

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Niko said:

In NYC for a few days. I arrived Saturday evening and the weather is certainly chilly and wet ever since. Remnants of hurricane Ian still sticking around.. Temps are in the 50s during the day and 40s at nite. Very gloomy. It gets better by midweek or so.

BTW: My first Frost Advisory for back home in Macomb County for Tanite. Temps dipping into the 30's.

 

 

38F on my car dash this morning.

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday was yet another great early October day with a reported 94% of possible sunshine at Grand Rapids the official H/L at GRR was 65/42 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 35 and there is a lot of frost on the top of the cars and roofs here. The official low so far at GRR looks to be 36. For today the average H/L is 67/42 the record high of 85 was a three peat in 1900, 1919 and 1974. The record low of a chilly 23 was in 1974. The 1^st part of this week looks to be sunny and warm then turning colder on Thursday and Friday.

 

Am I reading that correctly? Record high and low were both in 1974? 85/23F would be like a TX forecast - maybe?

[Niko]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

I don't know about your back yard but here in MBY the low reached 35 and there is a lot of frost on the roofs and tops of cars. Not so much on the grass areas.

I turned on my phone locations this morning for Macomb and it read 33F. However, I am not sure if my area went lower than that. I think It did because I checked my phone at 7:30AM. Also, this year seems like a lot colder than other October's.

[Niko]

Currently in NYC its 51F under cloudy skies and windy conditions w/ spotty showers around.

Quote

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Man, this looks so pretty. If only it was mid-December...

 

[jaster220]

Marshall and Jack-town froze this morning. Color change can commence in earnest!

[Madtown]

[Iceresistance]

Got down to 49°F this morning, with a wind chill (what?) of 47°F

[Phil]

Been loving this autumn so far. Coolest start in many years.

It was 48.4°F at 345pm today. By far the coolest afternoon temperature I’ve ever recorded this early in the season.

By contrast, in 2019 it was 98°F here on Oct 2nd. Huge difference this year so far.

[james1976]

MPX AFD this afternoon already talking about the potential for a large system late next week. That's passed the 7 day but nice to see it mentioned. I think Tom had been talking about a potential large system and colder air in that time frame as well. Time will tell but it's nice to see something more active as well as a widespread freeze at the end of this week.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, james1976 said:

MPX AFD this afternoon already talking about the potential for a large system late next week. That's passed the 7 day but nice to see it mentioned. I think Tom had been talking about a potential large system and colder air in that time frame as well. Time will tell but it's nice to see something more active as well as a widespread freeze at the end of this week.

It's good to see the 12z Euro showing some nice rainfall amounts for the KC area up through the mid west around the 10th.  GFS showing another storm in the time period Tom mentioned.  I'll take this setup again in December, but first lets bring on the rain.

12z Euro

 

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Man, this looks so pretty. If only it was mid-December...

 

It would be nice to see that cold air get locked in with some blocking down the road.

[james1976]

Another great night for a bonfire up at the MN home. 60 and calm. We cut down a bunch of limbs and small branches over the weekend and cut em up into smaller pieces. Burning em tonight. 

[Tom]

Illinois Harvest underway and farmers are in a frenzy...

 

[Tom]

The "Valley of the Sun" got hit by some rather strong outflows that produced gusty winds throughout the valley.  A line of strong to severe storms fired up north as we got a taste of the seasons first Autumn-like storm system.  It behaved more like a strong CF pushing through the area.  Local mets on TV were saying this system had the characteristis like a typical Autumn storm.

 

 

As I mentioned above, this system was potent enough to produce a rare Tornado up north in the mountains near Williams, AZ which is just west of Flagstaff.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/nws-investigating-reports-tornado-damage-miles-williams-coconino-county

[Tom]

It’s the first morning since I’ve been here where I can comfortably open up the windows and feel some cool and refreshing air…

 

[Tom]

Last night's EPS weeklies show a lot of blocking up north through the rest of this month...the globals did not see this coming for OCT.  Love seeing that ridge south of Greenland firing up and the continuation of the W NAMER Ridge.  I don't recall seeing to many forecasts aside from the CPC that generally showed a cooler probability across the East.

For our central/southern members, you guys must be salivating at the fact that this month there is no sign of a Ridge!  Man, it's been years since I have not seen the models paint that un-relenting central CONUS ridge in OCT that always seemed to weaken storm systems as they moved into the region.  I'm sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

[Tom]

Pretty cool time lapses of the mountain cams at Vail Ski Resort showing the snow capped peaks and also how clear the stars are in the night sky.

https://www.vail.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another great fall day with 100% of possible sunshine. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 68/34 that low of 34 with a lot of frost, that low of 34 was the coldest low at Grand Rapids since a low of 28 way back on April 28^th.  The over night low here in MBY this morning so far is 38 there is just light some light frost on the roof tops. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is now down to 66/46. The record high for today is 87 in 1951 and the record low of 30 was set in 1943 and again in 1965. It looks warm for today and tomorrow before cooling down on Thursday the coldest days this week will be Friday and Saturday.

 

[Niko]

Here in NYC, another raw, cold day w temps into the 40s. Highs will be near 50 or slightly higher. Rain continues all day and into tomorrow b4 finally getting outta here. Lots of sunshine for Thursday and beyond. Temps rebounding into the 60s and maybe near 70F or a little higher. 

 

Went to a really cool restaurant last nite in(Port Washington) called "Louie's." Exellent food. I usually come here when I am in town. 

 

 

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

A couple more above normal days, a brief cool shot, and then back to normal temps. No real shot of rain either. It’ll be close here on the chance of any frost. Average first frost is 10/6 here.

Today

A chance of sprinkles between 2pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 10pm and 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. 

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light west northwest wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. 

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. 

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. 

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 36.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 55.

Friday Night

Areas of frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 35.

Saturday

Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 62.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 70.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Columbus Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

[westMJim]

For anyone who is thinking of taking a fall color tour this year here is a updated fall color estimate for Michigan.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/10/michigan-fall-color-update-forecast-tweak-on-peak-fall-color-timing.html
While no where near peak here in my area the color has picked up in the last few days and there is now red and yellow showing up in the area.

[CentralNebWeather]

Very persistent line of light to at times moderate rain has been falling since about 6 AM this morning.  Looks like 0.35"-0.40" has been recorded on my weather apps so far.  Good to get the moisture, though not great for the harvest.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

Fargo is looking at highs in the 40s coming up on Thursday and Friday.

[hawkstwelve]

GEM out here trying to make things interesting...

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

If a new LRC is really starting, the placement of the cold fronts and troughs is making me a little bit nervous for KC.  They seem to be sliding off to the east, with KC only getting the back side.  That would mean quicker warm ups for KC, and less chance of an accompanying storm getting its act together in time to give KC big snows.  The Plains ridge doesn't want to give up.  We'll see . . . . 

The best scenarios for KC happen when the cold air comes down through the Rockies, and then pushes west.  So far, the cold air seems to be targeting the Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Edit:  Canadian has a different solution than the GFS, which is a perfect look for later-season snowstorms in KC.

I'll be nervous also until we get some precip but sign me up for what the Euro is selling on day 10.

 

[Madtown]

Couple more from today...doesn't get much better. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’ve never seen video of the Aurora overhead before, always just still pictures. Amazing!!

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Made it to 80.8 IMBY today despite the pretty thick mid and high level clouds all day. Rain has stayed west of here so far.

[Iceresistance]

Winter Precip is possible in Nebraska on Thursday! 

[Clinton]

The GFS and Euro couldn't be more different for next weeks weather.  The GFS has a huge ridge out west that extends into NW Canada while the Euro has a deep trough that digs nearly to Mexico.  Fingers crossed that the Euro has this right!

The GFS for the 13th.

The Euro for the 13th.

The Canadians take similar to the Euro.

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS and Euro couldn't be more different for next weeks weather.  The GFS has a huge ridge out west that extends into NW Canada while the Euro has a deep trough that digs nearly to Mexico.  Fingers crossed that the Euro has this right!

The GFS for the 13th.

The Euro for the 13th.

The Canadians take similar to the Euro.

The Canadian has snow all the way down to the Oklahoma Panhandle!

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The Canadian has snow all the way down to the Oklahoma Panhandle!

The CMC always to cold but with the higher elevations of the Plains I guess it could happen.

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The CMC always to cold but with the higher elevations of the Plains I guess it could happen.

The Euro is similar to the CMC, but less cold and snow. 

[OKwx2k4]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Last night's EPS weeklies show a lot of blocking up north through the rest of this month...the globals did not see this coming for OCT.  Love seeing that ridge south of Greenland firing up and the continuation of the W NAMER Ridge.  I don't recall seeing to many forecasts aside from the CPC that generally showed a cooler probability across the East.

For our central/southern members, you guys must be salivating at the fact that this month there is no sign of a Ridge!  Man, it's been years since I have not seen the models paint that un-relenting central CONUS ridge in OCT that always seemed to weaken storm systems as they moved into the region.  I'm sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

This is one of the prettiest eps runs ever. Just in December, please.

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

The CMC always to cold but with the higher elevations of the Plains I guess it could happen.

Its possible, but very rare this early up there. 

[Iceresistance]

27 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Its possible, but very rare this early up there. 

It has snowed here in October only several times in the past 105 years, with the most being 2 inches in the 1910s. (Don't know exactly when)

[snowstorm83]

October snow normally wouldn't surprise me, but I'm not super confident in our ability to receive any type of precipitation right now 

[OKwx2k4]

35 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It has snowed here in October only several times in the past 105 years, with the most being 2 inches in the 1910s. (Don't know exactly when)

Probably 1910-11. Maybe year after. I know there were a few in there scattered out, but can't tell you which ones offhand.

[OmahaSnowFan]

I thought the CPC was always warm biased?

[james1976]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I thought the CPC was always warm biased?

Hopefully it pans out

[Tom]

A piece of energy that came off the trough that moved through the Rockies the past few days will get cut-off for dayssss on end here in the SW.  It won't be until the next major trough enters the PAC NW/B.C. region that will eventually "kick" it out or phase together.  Models are struggling with the storm system during the 10/11-10/13 timeframe.  I think the spike in the AO/NAO teleconnections has something to do with it.

I'm digging the temp trends here as they are being lowered this weekend into next week due to the trough and precip chances.  Did I just see mid 80's in the grid next week???  Been a Longgg time since the PHX Valley has seen temps like these.  #Autumn

 

 

A rare temperature spread occurred yesterday in and around N IL/IN...up to a 40 degree temp spread from low to high...you don't see this often in the MW...

[Tom]

An interesting scenario could be setting up later next week with the dip in the PNA(-) creating a SW Flow pattern for a period of time.  The combination of the cut-off trough in the SW and the energy diving south into the western US, could create a multi-day scenario whereby this pattern will send pieces of energy into the central/southern CONUS.

@OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Andie I see the start of a multi-day Severe Wx threat firing up down by your region post 14th as the battle of the seasons shall commence down south.  Tis the Season for the 2nd Season...of Severe Wx that is...that's a beautiful map right there for the 4 corners.

 

[chescowxman]

Another 0.43" of rain fell overnight. Bringing our 5 day rain total since Saturday to 4.12". Today should be the last day with measurable rain for at least the next week! Temperatures tomorrow and Friday could reach 70 degrees especially in the lower spots of Chester County PA. However, temperatures again fall off sharply starting Saturday with a stretch of below normal temps again through at least next Tuesday.

The record high for today is 94 degrees from 1941. The record low is 28 degrees from 1965. The daily rainfall record is 2.04" set way back in 1902.

[westMJim]

Kind of like a broken record in days of old, yesterday was yet another great fall day with once again 100% of possible sunshine the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 72/37 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY was 43 and at this time it is 45 with sun and some clouds. For today the average H/L is 66/46 the record high of 85 was set in 1900, 1922 and 1946 the record low of 29 was set n 1965 and 2004. Last year on this date the H/L was 69/58. Today looks to be the last day this week with highs in the low 70’s it looks to turn colder for Friday and Saturday but it looks to warm up next week once again.

 

[MIKEKC]

Paging MOTHER NATURE! Did you forget about us????

 

Drought is intensifying here in KC. Trees are already turning color but its the dead color look....

Hopefully next weekend we see some widespread moisture in the Central Plains. 

[Andie]

Looks like a Niña fall and winter.  
Same here dry and not much hope for sufficient rain this Fall.  Three Niña winters aren’t common   Maybe the ocean will go Neutral.  

We’re at 65* and Sunny for the next 10 days.  
 

[Clinton]

I'm getting a few unexpected sprinkles and showers this morning, not much in the way of measurable rain.  Currently cloudy and 58, the rest of the week looks dry and warm.