October 2022 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

8 hours ago, Niko said:

My first Frost Advisory for back home in Macomb County for Tanite. Temps dipping into the 30's.

I don't know about your back yard but here in MBY the low reached 35 and there is a lot of frost on the roofs and tops of cars. Not so much on the grass areas.

[westMJim]

In looking back at the past warm season here is the total of days with high temperatures of 90 or better. At Grand Rapids 7, Muskegon and Holland 6, Lansing 17. To the east Detroit 15, Flint 10 and Saginaw 6. For some reason Lansing seems to have been warmer that surrounding areas.

 

[Tom]

The Flow over the mid-lat's of our Nation is about to go through a Massive change this week as we will likely see Day 1 of the new LRC pattern.  This new pattern will be felt by literally all of us as a powerful Cold Front ushers in the seasons coldest airmass thus far.  Some may see flakes flying up north across the Yoopers!  I'm seeing a clear signal that a Long Term Long Wave Trough is developing across the eastern CONUS over the next 2 weeks.  Meanwhile, a W NAMER Ridge is anchoring itself over W Canada creating a NW Flow aloft that will usher in re-surging rounds of colder weather.  

Alright, Alright, Alright...let me dive right in....I've learned over the years from listening to Gary Lezak that we usually see the "old" pattern blend with the "new" during the 1st week of OCT.  I believe we are seeing this play out right now before our eyes with the trough centered over the N Rockies that's "cut-off" from the main flow aloft since it entered the PAC NW on 9/29.  Check out how this slow moving energy just sits and spins waiting for the CF to pick it up on the likelihood of Day 1 of the new LRC pattern.  

 

Last night's 0z EPS 500mb...I'm tracking a potential Autumn storm 10/11-10/14 to track into the N Rockies and usher in the first Significant Snows of the season.  Winter will arrive into the lower 48 for those folks.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Monday!  Many of you will experience an end to the growing season later this week.  How has the harvest been?  I heard the corn crop hasn't been so good up in IA/NE.  Is that true?  I'm sure a lot of gardeners and farmers will be in a frenzy this week.

 

I would say harvest is over half done in my area.  Haven't heard about yields yet.  My guess is that it won't be the bumper crop of previous years.

[Tom]

You know when the models are struggling when you see these corrections in the EPO from the EPS...

 

 

[Tom]

It's getting to be that time of year when changes begin to occur up in the Stratosphere.  By Day 7, the Euro has been lock steady that a warming event will occur in the Arctic regions that will dislodge some early season cold off the snow pack that has already begun to take shape over the Archipelago/Arctic.

 

 

Current Snow Cover...

 

 

0z Euro 10-day North American snow forecast....Laying down the White Gold...

[snowstorm83]

Looking forward to highs in the 50s and potentially the first frost. Unfortunately still looking very dry for the foreseeable future.

[Clinton]

More great weather ahead here, big changes showing up next weekend.   Hope it can deliver some rain soon, exciting times ahead.

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Niko said:

In NYC for a few days. I arrived Saturday evening and the weather is certainly chilly and wet ever since. Remnants of hurricane Ian still sticking around.. Temps are in the 50s during the day and 40s at nite. Very gloomy. It gets better by midweek or so.

BTW: My first Frost Advisory for back home in Macomb County for Tanite. Temps dipping into the 30's.

 

 

38F on my car dash this morning.

4 hours ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday was yet another great early October day with a reported 94% of possible sunshine at Grand Rapids the official H/L at GRR was 65/42 and there was no rain fall. The overnight low here in MBY so far has been 35 and there is a lot of frost on the top of the cars and roofs here. The official low so far at GRR looks to be 36. For today the average H/L is 67/42 the record high of 85 was a three peat in 1900, 1919 and 1974. The record low of a chilly 23 was in 1974. The 1^st part of this week looks to be sunny and warm then turning colder on Thursday and Friday.

 

Am I reading that correctly? Record high and low were both in 1974? 85/23F would be like a TX forecast - maybe?

[Niko]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

I don't know about your back yard but here in MBY the low reached 35 and there is a lot of frost on the roofs and tops of cars. Not so much on the grass areas.

I turned on my phone locations this morning for Macomb and it read 33F. However, I am not sure if my area went lower than that. I think It did because I checked my phone at 7:30AM. Also, this year seems like a lot colder than other October's.

[Niko]

Currently in NYC its 51F under cloudy skies and windy conditions w/ spotty showers around.

Quote

 

 

[jaster220]

Marshall and Jack-town froze this morning. Color change can commence in earnest!

[Madtown]

[Iceresistance]

Got down to 49°F this morning, with a wind chill (what?) of 47°F

[Phil]

Been loving this autumn so far. Coolest start in many years.

It was 48.4°F at 345pm today. By far the coolest afternoon temperature I’ve ever recorded this early in the season.

By contrast, in 2019 it was 98°F here on Oct 2nd. Huge difference this year so far.

[james1976]

MPX AFD this afternoon already talking about the potential for a large system late next week. That's passed the 7 day but nice to see it mentioned. I think Tom had been talking about a potential large system and colder air in that time frame as well. Time will tell but it's nice to see something more active as well as a widespread freeze at the end of this week.

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, james1976 said:

MPX AFD this afternoon already talking about the potential for a large system late next week. That's passed the 7 day but nice to see it mentioned. I think Tom had been talking about a potential large system and colder air in that time frame as well. Time will tell but it's nice to see something more active as well as a widespread freeze at the end of this week.

It's good to see the 12z Euro showing some nice rainfall amounts for the KC area up through the mid west around the 10th.  GFS showing another storm in the time period Tom mentioned.  I'll take this setup again in December, but first lets bring on the rain.

12z Euro

 

[Clinton]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Man, this looks so pretty. If only it was mid-December...

 

It would be nice to see that cold air get locked in with some blocking down the road.

[james1976]

Another great night for a bonfire up at the MN home. 60 and calm. We cut down a bunch of limbs and small branches over the weekend and cut em up into smaller pieces. Burning em tonight. 

[Tom]

Illinois Harvest underway and farmers are in a frenzy...

 

[Tom]

The "Valley of the Sun" got hit by some rather strong outflows that produced gusty winds throughout the valley.  A line of strong to severe storms fired up north as we got a taste of the seasons first Autumn-like storm system.  It behaved more like a strong CF pushing through the area.  Local mets on TV were saying this system had the characteristis like a typical Autumn storm.

 

 

As I mentioned above, this system was potent enough to produce a rare Tornado up north in the mountains near Williams, AZ which is just west of Flagstaff.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/nws-investigating-reports-tornado-damage-miles-williams-coconino-county

[Tom]

It’s the first morning since I’ve been here where I can comfortably open up the windows and feel some cool and refreshing air…

 

[Tom]

Last night's EPS weeklies show a lot of blocking up north through the rest of this month...the globals did not see this coming for OCT.  Love seeing that ridge south of Greenland firing up and the continuation of the W NAMER Ridge.  I don't recall seeing to many forecasts aside from the CPC that generally showed a cooler probability across the East.

For our central/southern members, you guys must be salivating at the fact that this month there is no sign of a Ridge!  Man, it's been years since I have not seen the models paint that un-relenting central CONUS ridge in OCT that always seemed to weaken storm systems as they moved into the region.  I'm sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

[Tom]

Pretty cool time lapses of the mountain cams at Vail Ski Resort showing the snow capped peaks and also how clear the stars are in the night sky.

https://www.vail.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/mountain-cams.aspx

[westMJim]

Yesterday was yet another great fall day with 100% of possible sunshine. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 68/34 that low of 34 with a lot of frost, that low of 34 was the coldest low at Grand Rapids since a low of 28 way back on April 28^th.  The over night low here in MBY this morning so far is 38 there is just light some light frost on the roof tops. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is now down to 66/46. The record high for today is 87 in 1951 and the record low of 30 was set in 1943 and again in 1965. It looks warm for today and tomorrow before cooling down on Thursday the coldest days this week will be Friday and Saturday.

 

[Niko]

Here in NYC, another raw, cold day w temps into the 40s. Highs will be near 50 or slightly higher. Rain continues all day and into tomorrow b4 finally getting outta here. Lots of sunshine for Thursday and beyond. Temps rebounding into the 60s and maybe near 70F or a little higher. 

 

Went to a really cool restaurant last nite in(Port Washington) called "Louie's." Exellent food. I usually come here when I am in town. 

 

 

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

A couple more above normal days, a brief cool shot, and then back to normal temps. No real shot of rain either. It’ll be close here on the chance of any frost. Average first frost is 10/6 here.

Today

A chance of sprinkles between 2pm and 3pm, then a slight chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 10pm and 1am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 54. West northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. 

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Light west northwest wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph. 

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. 

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. North wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. 

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 36.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 55.

Friday Night

Areas of frost after 4am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 35.

Saturday

Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 62.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 70.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Columbus Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.

[westMJim]

For anyone who is thinking of taking a fall color tour this year here is a updated fall color estimate for Michigan.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2022/10/michigan-fall-color-update-forecast-tweak-on-peak-fall-color-timing.html
While no where near peak here in my area the color has picked up in the last few days and there is now red and yellow showing up in the area.

[CentralNebWeather]

Very persistent line of light to at times moderate rain has been falling since about 6 AM this morning.  Looks like 0.35"-0.40" has been recorded on my weather apps so far.  Good to get the moisture, though not great for the harvest.

[Minny_Weather]

Fargo is looking at highs in the 40s coming up on Thursday and Friday.

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

If a new LRC is really starting, the placement of the cold fronts and troughs is making me a little bit nervous for KC.  They seem to be sliding off to the east, with KC only getting the back side.  That would mean quicker warm ups for KC, and less chance of an accompanying storm getting its act together in time to give KC big snows.  The Plains ridge doesn't want to give up.  We'll see . . . . 

The best scenarios for KC happen when the cold air comes down through the Rockies, and then pushes west.  So far, the cold air seems to be targeting the Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Edit:  Canadian has a different solution than the GFS, which is a perfect look for later-season snowstorms in KC.

I'll be nervous also until we get some precip but sign me up for what the Euro is selling on day 10.

 

[Madtown]

Couple more from today...doesn't get much better. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’ve never seen video of the Aurora overhead before, always just still pictures. Amazing!!

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Made it to 80.8 IMBY today despite the pretty thick mid and high level clouds all day. Rain has stayed west of here so far.

[Iceresistance]

Winter Precip is possible in Nebraska on Thursday! 

[Clinton]

The GFS and Euro couldn't be more different for next weeks weather.  The GFS has a huge ridge out west that extends into NW Canada while the Euro has a deep trough that digs nearly to Mexico.  Fingers crossed that the Euro has this right!

The GFS for the 13th.

The Euro for the 13th.

The Canadians take similar to the Euro.

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The GFS and Euro couldn't be more different for next weeks weather.  The GFS has a huge ridge out west that extends into NW Canada while the Euro has a deep trough that digs nearly to Mexico.  Fingers crossed that the Euro has this right!

The GFS for the 13th.

The Euro for the 13th.

The Canadians take similar to the Euro.

The Canadian has snow all the way down to the Oklahoma Panhandle!

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The Canadian has snow all the way down to the Oklahoma Panhandle!

The CMC always to cold but with the higher elevations of the Plains I guess it could happen.

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The CMC always to cold but with the higher elevations of the Plains I guess it could happen.

The Euro is similar to the CMC, but less cold and snow. 

[OKwx2k4]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Last night's EPS weeklies show a lot of blocking up north through the rest of this month...the globals did not see this coming for OCT.  Love seeing that ridge south of Greenland firing up and the continuation of the W NAMER Ridge.  I don't recall seeing to many forecasts aside from the CPC that generally showed a cooler probability across the East.

For our central/southern members, you guys must be salivating at the fact that this month there is no sign of a Ridge!  Man, it's been years since I have not seen the models paint that un-relenting central CONUS ridge in OCT that always seemed to weaken storm systems as they moved into the region.  I'm sure you guys know what I'm talking about.

This is one of the prettiest eps runs ever. Just in December, please.