June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Quite the warm and breezy to windy evening. Temp holding steady at 69 degrees currently.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice day. High of 77.

[Jesse]

Hanging at 78 at PDX as of 10pm. Easily the warmest evening of the year so far.

 

Might bump up my forecast low for tomorrow morning by a few degrees before the contest closes.

[Deweydog]

Hanging at 78 at PDX as of 10pm. Easily the warmest evening of the year so far.

 

Might bump up my forecast low for tomorrow morning by a few degrees before the contest closes.

I still like 61. They're tracking about how you'd expect.

[Bryant]

12Z GFS ensemble mean is showing above normal heights next weekend.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f204.gif

 

Damnit Tim this is a trough! 

[Timmy Supercell]

High of 88 today, with a little breeze in the evening hours. Just 2 degrees below today's record of 90 in 1987.

Tomorrow will easily break the record of 89 set in 1969, I'm quite confident of that. 

[Timmy Supercell]

75 degrees at 9:45 p.m. and really sultry, still, and buggy outside.  Lots of mosquitos.  Feels more like Phil's neck of the woods, although I realize a 58-degree dewpoint would be a welcome respite there.

 

I ran into a couple "clouds" of midges during a walk earlier this evening right before sunset. Even though they don't bite I had to look like a schizophrenic patient for a few minutes wiping them off of me.

[Guest Winterdog]

Sunny 72f with billowing cumulus over the islands here in Sorrento Italy. Can't figure how to post photo from iPhone but it is beautiful here.

[Deweydog]

Really impressive thermal belt this morning. 77 at Larch Mt. and Kelso hung up in the mid-upper 60's with northerly breezes. Extremely unusual.

[Bryant]

Sunny 72f with billowing cumulus over the islands here in Sorrento Italy. Can't figure how to post photo from iPhone but it is beautiful here.

You can either upload to a hosting website such as imgur then put img brackets around the link, or view this site as the desktop version and go to more reply options.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Warm start. Gonna be some busts on this morning's lows.

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 55 this morning here. That's my 2nd warmest this year, on 06/01 I had 59 for a low. I'm sure that broke a record max low. Lows can still range from mid 30's to upper 40's easily before late June.

[ShawniganLake]

Temperatures the next 3 days will be borderline for breaking records at Shawnigan Lake.  Existing records are from either 2003 or 2009 during that time.  Those years are also the 2 most recent years when we have touched 90F in Early June. 

[Jesse]

Nice day to escape to the coast.

[bainbridgekid]

Nice day to escape to the coast.

The heat agrees.

 

79 in Astoria at 9:55 AM.

[Jesse]

The heat agrees.

 

79 in Astoria at 9:55 AM.

Good thing there's more than one town on the coast.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=AT297&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[Deweydog]

Gonna be a close call...

[Karl Bonner]

Gonna be historically hot in The Dalles.  Today is likely the first of three (maybe four if the ridge lingers Tuesday) days at or above 100.  We've never had a 'Triple Triple' before the 3rd week of June.

[James Jones]

Gonna be a close call...

You think we might miss 90 again??

[FroYoBro]

You think we might miss 90 again??

 

The big 100.

[Deweydog]

You think we might miss 90 again??

It'll be a tough five degrees.

[Deweydog]

Temperatures as of 11:53pm:

 

Hillsboro 89

McMinnville 89

Troutdale 88

Aurora 87

The Dalles 87

Salem 87

Portland 85

Kelso 82

A forecast?

[Timmy Supercell]

A forecast?

 

Those look to be current temperatures. KHIO did last read 89 at 11:53am. Maybe he meant AM instead of PM.

[GHweatherChris]

Heat cancelled, Astoria already cooling!!

[FroYoBro]

PDX is stuck at 89. They will never break the 90 mark this summer!

[Timmy Supercell]

PDX is stuck at 89. They will never break the 90 mark this summer!

 

89 until 3pm and then they get to 100 at 4pm. 

[TT-SEA]

Cooler thoughts... the 12Z ECMWF shows a good soaking rain in the usual spots from Bellingham to Portland on Friday into Saturday.   

 

I am sure OLM and Shawnigan will get nothing again.    But many areas could have over an inch of rain.   

[GobBluth]

Portland normally needs to be at 90 by noon to get a high above 100.

[Deweydog]

Portland normally needs to be at 90 by noon to get a high above 100.

They may need the east wind to surface. If it does, the timing may be perfect.

[Deweydog]

Could be quite a night for lows if scud clouds become a factor.

[Deweydog]

Yet another underachieving heat event in the PNW.

[seattleweatherguy]

90s for seattle tommorow wow

[bainbridgekid]

Good thing there's more than one town on the coast.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=AT297&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

Not bad. Upper 60's sound nice.

 

Definitely a hot day on the Northern Oregon and Washington coast though.

 

Astoria and Hoquiam are both sitting at 86.

[Kayla]

Well, this was a bit of a bust...have we finally turned the corner? Last couple years seemed like we ALWAYS overachieved with the forecasts, but since May we have consistently underachieved on the models and once again today. I like the trend...

[Timmy Supercell]

94 for a high today here. I broke my record of 89 set in 1969.

 

In other news, NWS Medford issued a Flash Flood Watch for me effective tomorrow afternoon.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/1zmo86r.jpg

[FroYoBro]

Well, this was a bit of a bust...have we finally turned the corner? Last couple years seemed like we ALWAYS overachieved with the forecasts, but since May we have consistently underachieved on the models and once again today. I like the trend...

 

It wasn't that big of a bust. Forecasts were only about 2 degrees too warm for Portland. 

[Timmy Supercell]

98 vs. 100 is not a bust. Though I am just talking about PDX, there may have been areas that went 4-6 degrees under forecast. But PDX was well within reason today. I was also 2 degrees below my forecast of 96, not really a fuss maker in the meteorology business.

[Deweydog]

98 vs. 100 is not a bust. Though I am just talking about PDX, there may have been areas that went 4-6 degrees under forecast. But PDX was well within reason today. I was also 2 degrees below my forecast of 96, not really a fuss maker in the meteorology business.

This early in the year PDX needs full adiabatic assistance. Things never fully turned over today and offshore flow remained more of a gap wind at the surface.

[Kayla]

It wasn't that big of a bust. Forecasts were only about 2 degrees too warm for Portland. 

 

Didn't say it was a "big" bust but when the GFS and ECMWF were saying that it would be at or above 100º for PDX (official high was 97º) and SEA was a pretty "big" bust for many.

 

Just noting a trend beginning where it seems like you can notch highs down a couple degrees from what the model outputs are as of late. Over the past 2 years it's been the exact opposite.  

[James Jones]

Yeah this was a bust. We all over estimated the strength of the blob. It looks to be cooling off rapidly. This is a good sign because that means we might have a much colder and snowier upcoming winter to look forward too. La Nina is coming soon.

Maybe you're joking, but I don't think the offshore SSTs had anything to do with anybody's forecast. They simply couldn't have any impact this far inland when there's offshore flow.