June 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Showing an extended period of 850s at 20c or above for several days at the end of the run.

 

image.png

 

It is what it is. Not looking for a pointless semantics battle. There has been enough of that here the past few years.

Fixed for you,

[Deweydog]

Showing an extended period of 850s at 20c or above for several days at the end of the run.

 

image.png

 

It is what it is. Not looking for a pointless semantics battle. There has been enough of that here the past few days.

Huge. Massive. Gargantuan. John Goodman.

[bainbridgekid]

Apparently a trough can still produce below normal temps... Go figure

Up to 58 already.

 

D**n you 3rd runway!

[James Jones]

From time to time, you weirdly single me out. It's become a trend. I welcome the attention, JJ, but it is misplaced. When it comes to angst about future PNW weather patterns, I lag well behind several. There are others on here who easily care more about whether PDX hits 100+.

 

Now if OLM hits 100...

I thought I already responded to this but I guess not.

 

I'm not trying to target you, I hadn't even realized I'd been doing it until you pointed it out. You just come off as being a little desperate at times trying to downplay/"mitigate" warm anomalies, that's all. Maybe that isn't what you're doing, but that's how I perceive it.

[Deweydog]

I thought I already responded to this but I guess not.

 

I'm not trying to target you, I hadn't even realized I'd been doing it until you pointed it out. You just come off as being a little desperate at times trying to downplay/"mitigate" warm anomalies, that's all. Maybe that isn't what you're doing, but that's how I perceive it.

He's actually quite a bit better than he was a few years ago.

[TT-SEA]

Nate makes it sound like it was yesterday. lol we're talking 9 days from then to now. Way exaggerated commentary from the average Pacific Northwesterner. It took time to cool down. 

 

And the midwest gets worse. They can literally go from 100 to 60 in 24-48 hours.

 

 

Denver can go form 80 to 20 with heavy snow overnight!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF ensemble mean is a little less troughy in the long range compared to the operational run.    But it does not show any type of heat wave either.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls05/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls05-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-0yaslI.png

[Front Ranger]

I thought I already responded to this but I guess not.

 

I'm not trying to target you, I hadn't even realized I'd been doing it until you pointed it out. You just come off as being a little desperate at times trying to downplay/"mitigate" warm anomalies, that's all. Maybe that isn't what you're doing, but that's how I perceive it.

My guess is it's my UHI-related posts that come across that way. I do make a point about it with the major airports, simply because it's a significant factor that often gets overlooked when it comes to anomalies and records. And a lot of times, people only pay attention to PDX and SEA.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z ECMWF does show it getting close to 90 one week from today.  

[Phil]

Regardless of how you personally feel about it, that's one of the most beautiful anticyclonic breaker sequences you'll ever see on the 18z GFS, especially during June. I'm foaming at the mouth in anticipation.

[Jesse]

Regardless of how you personally feel about it, that's one of the most beautiful anticyclonic breaker sequences you'll ever see on the 18z GFS, especially during June. I'm foaming at the mouth in anticipation.

What would that mean, in terms of tangible weather for this area?

[TT-SEA]

Regardless of how you personally feel about it, that's one of the most beautiful anticyclonic breaker sequences you'll ever see on the 18z GFS, especially during June. I'm foaming at the mouth in anticipation.

 

 

I though there were rough times ahead for the GFS?  

[stuffradio]

What would that mean, in terms of tangible weather for this area?

Hot.smoking.weather.

[Phil]

What would that mean, in terms of tangible weather for this area?

Varies by circumstance. In this case, probably an 15-20 day return dry ridging/warmth (late June into early July) followed by a return to troughing during the 2nd week of July, continuing for awhile thereafter.

[Phil]

I though there were rough times ahead for the GFS?

Yeah, what's your point? The anticyclonic breaking I'm referring to initiates before the models divergence w/ forcing in the LR. In fact it probably has something to do with the differential(s).

[Jesse]

Varies by circumstance. In this case, probably an 15-20 day return dry ridging/warmth (late June into early July) followed by a return to troughing during the 2nd week of July, continuing for awhile thereafter.

Your -1.5 anomaly for July is going to be a tall order.

[Bryant]

Yeah, what's your point? The anticyclonic breaking I'm referring to initiates before the models divergence w/ forcing in the LR. In fact it probably has something to do with the differential(s).

He just always thinks he's right... Helps him sleep at night

[TT-SEA]

He just always thinks he's right... Helps him sleep at night

 

 

I don't even know what he is referring to on the 18Z GFS.   But he did state this morning that GFS was out to lunch and had "rough times ahead".   

 

How am I being right?   I am just reporting what he said.   

[TT-SEA]

Man, the GFS is completely on its own with its handling of the tropical forcing(s). Every other modeling suite (UKMET, ECMWF, GGEM, JMA) are in agreement w/ the idea of an IO/MT basis on the integral, while the GFS tries to keep Pacific/WHEM forcing going.

 

Rough times upcoming for the GFS it seems.

 

 

I did not say it.    Nor do I even really understand the issue.   I just glean what I can from his posts and I understood the highlighted part.

[Deweydog]

He just always thinks he's right... Helps him sleep at night

 

Pick your battles.  

[Phil]

Your -1.5 anomaly for July is going to be a tall order.

Why is that?

[Jesse]

Why is that?

15-20 days of ridging would probably put a dent in that.

 

Unless you are expecting this period to start in late June.

[Tyler Mode]

Thunder moving off to the SE...53 degrees. 0.30". Quite a few strikes with that storm. 2.12"/hour @ 3:57 PM

[Phil]

The mood in here seems to swing with every weekly up/down depicted on the clown range modeling.

 

Anyone hoping for a "stable" pattern in the midst of a transitioning background state will be thoroughly disappointed. This isn't a second year Niña or a developing super niño.

[TT-SEA]

15-20 days of ridging would probably put a dent in that.

 

Unless you are expecting this period to start in late June.

 

 

He said late June.  

[stuffradio]

I've had a bunch of showers/heavy rain periods today. No thunder/lightning in my area, but there has been lightning and thunder not too far away from me.

[TT-SEA]

The mood in here seems to swing with every weekly up/down depicted on the clown range modeling. Good grief.

 

Anyone hoping for a "stable" pattern in the midst of a transitioning background state will be thoroughly disappointed. This isn't a second year Niña or a developing super niño.

 

JAS is easy here.    This year will probably follow suit just using your 7 analog years for starters.

 

We should really be talking more now about fall and winter.   There will not be much going on the next 3 months.  

[Phil]

15-20 days of ridging would probably put a dent in that.

 

Unless you are expecting this period to start in late June.

I thought was clear on this one. I've been mentioning this pattern change in several posts over the last 10 days.

 

I'm targeing late June/early July. The ridging will probably run into early July, but not much longer. It'll gradually retrograde offshore, as has been the trend all year for aforementioned reasons.

[Phil]

JAS is easy here. This year will probably follow suit just using your 7 analog years for starters.

 

We should really be talking more now about fall and winter. There will not be much going on the next 3 months.

I think winter is probably easier, actually. We'll see, though, as the QBO is off the rails at the moment.

[TT-SEA]

I thought was clear on this one. I've been mentioning this pattern change in several posts over the last 10 days.

 

I'm targeing late June/early July. The ridging will probably run into early July, but not much longer. It'll gradually retrograde offshore, as has been the trend all year for aforementioned reasons.

 

 

Your timing is still off.

 

On May 28th you said the second half of June and early July would be cool and troughy.   

 

Now 2 weeks later its the opposite and it will be warm again in the second half of June and early July.   We are just starting the second half of June on Thursday.  

 

http://s31.postimg.org/82its1jm2/phil.jpg

[Jesse]

Your timing is still off.

 

On May 28th you said the second half of June and early July would be cool and troughy.

 

Now 2 weeks later its the opposite and it will be warm again in the second half of June and early July. We are just starting the second half of June on Thursday.

 

Yeah, honestly this is what was confusing me too.

[TT-SEA]

If you go back to earlier predictions from March and April... I said that mid-May to mid-June could be quite troughy (after a very warm April and first half of May).   And then it would turn warmer and drier after mid-June.   

 

I certainly did not see that heat event happening in there... but overall 3 of the last 4 weeks have been decidely troughy and cool covering the mid-May to mid-June period.   So I was sort of close.  

[TT-SEA]

SEA managed to get to 60 today.

[Phil]

Your timing is still off.

 

On May 28th you said the second half of June and early July would be cool and troughy.

 

Now 2 weeks later its the opposite and it will be warm again in the second half of June and early July. We are just starting the second half of June on Thursday.

The intraseasonal forcing progressed across the Pacific/WHEM about 10 days faster than I thought it would, so the aforementioned troughing (-AAM/-PNA) occurred sooner than I was predicting.

 

I've had a slow bias for over 8 weeks now, for whatever reason.

[Front Ranger]

[TT-SEA]

The intraseasonal forcing progressed across the Pacific/WHEM ~10 days faster than I thought it would. I've had a slow bias for over 8 weeks now, for whatever reason.

 

 

Fair enough.  

 

Probably need to take that into account with your forecast through July as well.   

 

My guess is that June finishes out with some flat ridging... then another troughy period for the first 7-10 days of July... then generally flat ridging and dry for the rest of July and through August.  

[TT-SEA]

Says the guy who's made more posts about this summer's analogs than anyone else.

 

 

Yep!    

 

Now that we have started through summer its looking easier.   

[Phil]

If you go back to earlier predictions from March and April... I said that mid-May to mid-June could be quite troughy (after a very warm April and first half of May). And then it would turn warmer and drier after mid-June.

 

I certainly did not see that heat event happening in there... but overall 3 of the last 4 weeks have been decidely troughy and cool covering the mid-May to mid-June period. So I was sort of close.

You've been all over the place, dude. I have your predictions bookmarked.

 

You were saying July would "blowtorch", then retracted it. You were initially targeting May and June for troughing. You then flipped warm on June. You then flipped warm on May/cool on June. You then flipped back to cool on May/warm on June.

[Phil]

You were also predicting a cold-neutral ENSO for 2016-17 as recently as 6 weeks ago, then went strong Niña, now are hedging moderate.

 

Just saying, best not to throw stones in glass houses.

[TT-SEA]

You've been all over the place, dude. I have your predictions bookmarked.

 

You were saying July would "blowtorch", then retracted it. You were initially targeting May and June for troughing, then flipped warm on June, then flipped warm on May/cool on June, then flipped back to cool on May/warm on June.

 

 

I think July will be warmer than normal.   I backed off on blowtorch for subjective reasons and I just don't think it will be as hot as 1889 now.

 

You sold me on a warm June... and statistically it will work out that way very well.