July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

At least PDX has a decent negative anomaly going for the month.  I have found it frustrating overall that nearly constant subnormal 850s have led to normal temps for the Central Puget Sound.  Much of the NW has been cool.

 

SEA could have put up a big minus today since they were 62 at 2:30pm.  They managed to rise 9 degrees after that though.  It only made 67 here, but SEA is where everyone looks for departures from normal.  It does appear the Central Puget Sound has been warmer in relation to normal compared to most inland areas, but SEA has been a notch warmer as usual the past few years.  I still come to the conclusion that station is pretty useless now for tracking climate change because it has been skewed by several factors.

 

Fair enough.

 

It will be interesting to see if SEA managed 72/60 today... or if those inter-hour observations are incorrect.

 

A 0 departure today would be impressive given the situation at 2 p.m. 

 

Little doubt that today was the coolest day of the week.  

[GHweatherChris]

I don't live anywhere near Seattle.

[Timmy Supercell]

This summer has sorely lacked any real thunderstorms so far. Hoping tonight/tomorrow pans out.

 

Yeah I know. Spring was my t'storm season. It feels like the transition from late summer to early fall right now it's so boring. 32 days since my last t'storm and we're almost in the middle of summer. I hope this changes soon.

[MossMan]

We have completely escaped any rainfall in my area the last few days, just a few distant rumbles of thunder here and there.

[TT-SEA]

Next couple days looking quite a bit warmer than originally shown on the WRF.

 

Thursday and Friday looking cooler with slower inland movement of the trough.

 

Weekend looking warmer on the 00Z GFS.   

 

12Z run for Sunday...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

00Z run:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_144_500_vort_ht.gif

[stuffradio]

Latest clues to the long range pattern through mid-August from Brett Anderson. The first half of August should be dry for the PNW.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_07171345_jul17a.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_07171347_jul17b.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2016/590x363_07171348_jul17c.png

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/clues-to-the-long-range-pattern-through-midaugust/58848059

What I really want to know is when the first arctic outbreak in December will be.

[Front Ranger]

What I really want to know is when the first arctic outbreak in December will be.

 

The last Nino to Nina year featured a helluva outbreak in November...

[ShawniganLake]

What I really want to know is when the first arctic outbreak in December will be.

Lets just hold off on the arctic air later this year, and go all in during January for a change. 

[TT-SEA]

Big blow-up of convection shown for Thursday evening on the WRF over all of the Seattle area and northward as the last trough finally moves in.

[ShawniganLake]

Joe Bastardi issued his preliminary winter forecast already.  Warmer than normal with below average snowfall for the west.   Just a cheery little thought for everyone. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Tonight again shows why the Strait of Georgia is a much more interesting body of water than the Juan de Fuca. Lots of evening convection out over the Strait of Georgia, while the Juan de Fuca continues to be a dead zone. There are plenty of factors but I'd imagine a big one is the difference in SSTs, with the Strait of Georgia running 6C (~11F) warmer than the Juan de Fuca. On summer evenings the air begins converging on the Strait of Georgia relatively early, while the Juan de Fuca never seems to get warm enough to induce a summertime offshore breeze. Interesting skies up there now:

 

http://webcam.beachacresresort.com/webcam/current.jpg

 

That body of water makes for pretty boring summer weather in Victoria; it has however been an unusually warm evening with the temperature still sitting around 70F after only hitting about 75F today.

[Deweydog]

It looks like a heat wave is likely at this point for the PNW next week as we head into the last few days of July. The 12z EURO earlier today starts to build the ridge over us and now the new 00Z GFS continues where it left off. Temperatures are still up in the air but there's no denying there is potential for 100+ days coming up.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016071812/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016071900/264/sfct.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016071900/288/sfct.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016071900/312/sfct.us_nw.png

Aren't temperatures pretty much always up in the air?

[stuffradio]

As of right now I think sometime around Thanksgiving.

That's October.

[stuffradio]

Aren't temperatures pretty much always up in the air?

Not when they're at 2m.

[Phil]

Has it really been a death ridge, though? Seems to me like a case of the modeling overdoing reality.

 

I posted this image in Mountain West thread.

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

Not yet, but that'll change. Those maps will look very different by the end of July.

[Phil]

Joe Bastardi issued his preliminary winter forecast already. Warmer than normal with below average snowfall for the west. Just a cheery little thought for everyone.

He's an east coast snow weenie. What do you expect? Lol.

[ShawniganLake]

He's an east coast snow weenie. What do you expect? Lol.

You still expecting a mild winter out your way?

[James Jones]

Joe Bastardi issued his preliminary winter forecast already.  Warmer than normal with below average snowfall for the west.   Just a cheery little thought for everyone. 

Doesn't he pretty much forecast that every year?

[stuffradio]

Doesn't he pretty much forecast that every year?

He does, and it hasn't failed him yet haha.

[Front Ranger]

He does, and it hasn't failed him yet haha.

 

The only times I remember him going cold for the West was 2007-08 and 2011-12, I believe.

[Front Ranger]

Not yet, but that'll change. Those maps will look very different by the end of July.

 

Possible. The models have really backed off any prolonged, extreme heat for now.

[snow_wizard]

Joe Bastardi issued his preliminary winter forecast already.  Warmer than normal with below average snowfall for the west.   Just a cheery little thought for everyone. 

 

Makes zero sense, but then again he is strongly Eastern centric.

[snow_wizard]

Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 are down to -0.6 now.  The coming Nina is making good progress.

[BLI snowman]

Joe Bastardi issued his preliminary winter forecast already.  Warmer than normal with below average snowfall for the west.   Just a cheery little thought for everyone. 

 

He also famously forecasted a record warm PNW winter in 1949-50 while he was still a sperm. Extreme cold in the East, too. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is really nice.   Friday is the only cool day... sunny and pleasant over the weekend between 75-80 in Seattle.   Very warm by the middle of next week and the ridge expands over the PNW.

[Deweydog]

So the PDO continues its slow descent from the most recent high in April. 2.03 for June.

[Jesse]

So the PDO continues its slow descent from the most recent high in April. 2.03 for June.

 

Could be a fairly large drop between June and July.

[Jesse]

12z GFS is decent. More NW flow overall and cooler nights. Seems like the really hot stuff keeps getting pushed back with each run, too. This run has another trough dropping in days 8-9.

[stuffradio]

12z GFS is decent. More NW flow overall and cooler nights. Seems like the really hot stuff keeps getting pushed back with each run, too. This run has another trough dropping in days 8-9.

Do you think we will have a dry crispy fall? Those are usually nice. I at least want some frost in October or November though.

[Jesse]

Do you think we will have a dry crispy fall? Those are usually nice. I at least want some frost in October or November though.

 

Hard to say. I generally try to stay away from speaking with any certainty regarding the LR stuff. 

 

It is possible we have a cool and active (ie wet at times) autumn with the developing Nina. But who knows. Some crisp, dry interludes would be pretty nice too.

[stuffradio]

Hard to say. I generally try to stay away from speaking with any certainty regarding the LR stuff. 

 

It is possible we have a cool and active (ie wet at times) autumn with the developing Nina. But who knows. Some crisp, dry interludes would be pretty nice too.

I remember in the 90's having hard frosts in early October.

[Jesse]

I remember in the 90's having hard frosts in early October.

 

I'd take that any year.

[seattleweatherguy]

00Z ECMWF is really nice. Friday is the only cool day... sunny and pleasant over the weekend between 75-80 in Seattle. Very warm by the middle of next week and the ridge expands over the PNW.

Mid week low 80s?

[Jesse]

Already up to 68 at PDX after a low of only 63. Today has the potential to score a fairly warm anomaly.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 70 here and its not even that sunny yet.    Dewpoint is at 57.    

[Timmy Supercell]

I remember in the 90's having hard frosts in early October.

 

Klamath Falls gets that most years in October. Maybe not always from an Indian Summer but those just make it a helluva lot more interesting

[Deweydog]

Up to 70 here and its not even that sunny yet. Dewpoint is at 57.

Low 90's possibly?

[TT-SEA]

Low 90's possibly?

 

 

Not likely.   

 

Nice day though.   

[Phil]

12z GFS is decent. More NW flow overall and cooler nights. Seems like the really hot stuff keeps getting pushed back with each run, too. This run has another trough dropping in days 8-9.

Yeah, new 12z ECMWF is cooler for SEA, too. Was actually too warm yesterday, FWIW.

 

[James Jones]

Impressive lack of diurnal range at PDX so far this month, just a 17 degree difference between the average high and low. Though that looks to change with the upcoming pattern.