August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Evening highs!!!!!!

The best kind of high.

[James Jones]

Today has a "surprise" 90 feel to it.

 

Probably depends on when tonight's marine push starts to take effect.

850s at 19C with light offshore flow, good enough to get it done. Marine push will probably come too late.

 

 

12z Euro ensembles look a lot different than the op at day 10.

 

 image.png

 

Looks like the ensembles don't like cutting off that low. This heat event could end up being another mirage.

Hard to tell without looking at the individual ensemble members, it could just have trouble figuring out the strength/location of the cutoff. The Canadian at 240 hours looks pretty similar to the Euro.

[Jesse]

Hard to tell without looking at the individual ensemble members, it could just have trouble figuring out the strength/location of the cutoff. The Canadian at 240 hours looks pretty similar to the Euro.

Hard to say. Models seem to be struggling with the pattern evolution following the weekend/early week ULL.

 

Given the tendencies this summer it wouldn't at all surprise me for the trough to trend closer and the offshore ridge further east/stronger.

[Brennan]

Snowwizz you seem to learn nothing. You do this all winter long. This is a lock or that is a lock. The weekend isn't here yet but in your mind it's already been cool. Wake up man.

 

Graceful you are. Is Snowwiz not the one of the kindest human beings there is? Heart of a child, filled with faith. Love you Jim!

[Jesse]

Graceful you are. Is Snowwiz not the one of the kindest human beings there is? Heart of a child, filled with faith. Love you Jim!

I didn't really get that attack. The models are looking cool this weekend. That is a pretty reasonable range to talk about. It's not like he was saying a January snowstorm was a lock.

[Jesse]

Tad breezy out.

[Jesse]

#6!

[Kayla]

#6!

 

Amazing to think that we already had 22 90's by this time last year.

[Jesse]

Amazing to think that we already had 22 90's by this time last year.

Such an improvement this year.

[FroYoBro]

Tad breezy out.

 

Yeah, loving this...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T88fbHOmvRk

[Geos]

83° for a high today here. Got to see the Blue Angels fly right overhead as they were heading in for their practice runs.

[Front Ranger]

Cool start.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

83° for a high today here. Got to see the Blue Angels fly right overhead as they were heading in for their practice runs.

 

This could end up being one of the coolest Seafair weekends ever.  It will be interesting to see how it actually plays out.

[Front Ranger]

This could end up being one of the coolest Seafair weekends ever.  It will be interesting to see how it actually plays out.

 

I have a co-worker moving out to Seattle this weekend. I told her this time of year is usually perfect, but her first weekend will probably be unusually cool/cloudy.

[Deweydog]

I have a co-worker moving out to Seattle this weekend. I told her this time of year is usually perfect, but her first weekend will probably be unusually cool/cloudy.

She needs to be aware the game has totally changed. Throw climo out the window.

[TT-SEA]

This could end up being one of the coolest Seafair weekends ever. It will be interesting to see how it actually plays out.

Pretty nice Saturday and maybe part of Sunday. It looks pretty sunny for Saturday now and the ULL is southwest of us on Sunday still which might allow for a decent day early on.

 

Makes you happy though when summer events are ruined. I remember you gleefully laughing at kids playing baseball in the cold rain back in May one year.

[Front Ranger]

She needs to be aware the game has totally changed. Throw climo out the window.

 

I also told her it doesn't actually rain much in the winter, and white Christmas's are quite common. 

 

   

[Deweydog]

That marine layer needs to get its ******* act together out there.

[snow_wizard]

I have a co-worker moving out to Seattle this weekend. I told her this time of year is usually perfect, but her first weekend will probably be unusually cool/cloudy.

 

We usually do summer and early autumn right.  No doubt about it.  I would still like to see a return to the cooler / drier summers we used to have though.  The ocean must have been consistently cold during the first quarter of the 20th century.  That would probably explain the combination of suppressed precip and consistently cool temps we sued to have during the summer.  The key to having that kind of summer seems to be having the Pacific high dominant enough to keep the 4 corners high pushed away from us.  Something we have seen at times this summer.

[TT-SEA]

Cool start.

 

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png

Back to normal after today for some areas. Might be still close to normal by the 15th after the troughing and then warm spell to follow.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty nice Saturday and maybe part of Sunday. It looks pretty sunny for Saturday now and the ULL is southwest of us on Sunday still which might allow for a decent day early on.

 

Makes you happy though when summer events are ruined. I remember you gleefully laughing at kids playing baseball in the cold rain back in May one year.

 

ULL being further southwest would usually lead to increased rain chances as well. Hmmm....perhaps even better opportunities for Jim to celebrate in the misery of others.

[Front Ranger]

Back to normal after today for some areas. Might be still close to normal by the 15th after the troughing and then warm spell to follow.

 

Below normal through the 10th is almost a lock. 

[snow_wizard]

I also told her it doesn't actually rain much in the winter, and white Christmas's are quite common. 

 

   

 

Cruel.

 

Even during the good old days White Christmasses were far less common than white Groundhogs Days (which happened reasonably often) .

[TT-SEA]

Below normal through the 10th is almost a lock. 

 

 

Yes... I agree.

[TT-SEA]

ULL being further southwest would usually lead to increased rain chances as well. Hmmm....perhaps even better opportunities for Jim to celebrate in the misery of others.

 

 

Not per the very reliable ECMWF.   Its dry for the Seattle area all day now on Sunday and then rain by Sunday evening.

[TT-SEA]

NAM is more aggressive for Saturday... but the ECMWF is the way to go with ULLs.   It was perfect with the precip on Tuesday.

[snow_wizard]

ULL being further southwest would usually lead to increased rain chances as well. Hmmm....perhaps even better opportunities for Jim to celebrate in the misery of others.

 

To set the record straight.  I wasn't gleeful about the kid's baseball games being rained out.  I was pointing out how crazy it was that year in that regard.

[Front Ranger]

Not per the very reliable ECMWF.   Its dry for the Seattle area all day now on Sunday and then rain by Sunday evening.

 

Only a +2 at your favorite station today. Weak.

[TT-SEA]

To set the record straight.  I wasn't gleeful about the kid's baseball games being rained out.  I was pointing out how crazy it was that year in that regard.

 

 

OK Jim.   Thanks for the clarification.

 

You actually remember that?

[TT-SEA]

Only a +2 at your favorite station today. Weak.

 

 

And still was a little too warm in the yard this afternoon.  

[Front Ranger]

To set the record straight.  I wasn't gleeful about the kid's baseball games being rained out.  I was pointing out how crazy it was that year in that regard.

 

I know. Tim was just being an a** hat, and I was playing off that.

 

He's far more evil than you.

[snow_wizard]

Not per the very reliable ECMWF.   Its dry for the Seattle area all day now on Sunday and then rain by Sunday evening.

 

It could still be pretty dark though.

[snow_wizard]

OK Jim.   Thanks for the clarification.

 

You actually remember that?

 

The real interesting point is that you remember it.  And...yes I do.

[Front Ranger]

And still was a little too warm in the yard this afternoon.  

 

I suspect MN will be a bit too warm for you too, then.

[James Jones]

We usually do summer and early autumn right.  No doubt about it.  I would still like to see a return to the cooler / drier summers we used to have though.  The ocean must have been consistently cold during the first quarter of the 20th century.  That would probably explain the combination of suppressed precip and consistently cool temps we sued to have during the summer.  The key to having that kind of summer seems to be having the Pacific high dominant enough to keep the 4 corners high pushed away from us.  Something we have seen at times this summer.

Were summers really drier back then? I don't see much evidence for that. If anything, it seems like our summers are slightly drier now than they used to be. SEA has had a couple of anomalously wet summer months the last few years but that has been isolated right around the Seattle area, it's been normal to the north and south.

 

Our summers are obviously quite a bit warmer than they used to be though.

[TT-SEA]

The real interesting point is that you remember it. And...yes I do.

Yeah... I remember thinking you must like it when other people are miserable in the weather. But then you became the loudest complainer of the normal gloom here for a good part of the year.

[TT-SEA]

I suspect MN will be a bit too warm for you too, then.

Won't be doing yardwork there... just playing all day and usually in the water with ice cold drinks. It should be warm but not real hot.

[TT-SEA]

It could still be pretty dark though.

GFS is a little worse for Sunday.   But the real crapfest is Monday and Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

WRF for Saturday afternoon...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.48.0000.gif

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.48.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Were summers really drier back then? I don't see much evidence for that. If anything, it seems like our summers are slightly drier now than they used to be. SEA has had a couple of anomalously wet summer months the last few years but that has been isolated right around the Seattle area, it's been normal to the north and south.

 

Our summers are obviously quite a bit warmer than they used to be though.

 

Yes.  I was referring to the late 19th century and the first quarter of the 20th.  Most summers were extremely dry.  At least in Seattle.