October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

For when it hits both seattle and medford

[Kayla]

It is only a matter of time before the Euro starts to look more reasonable for the storm on Saturday. 

 

Until it doesn't.

[westcoastexpat]

For when it hits both seattle and medford

 

Seattle timing is Saturday evening

[Tundra]

The newest edition of 12z GEM looks like the EURO from last night. The models are zoning in now.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016101312/gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_8.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016101312/gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_9.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016101312/gem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_10.png

[seattleweatherguy]

Seattle timing is Saturday evening

Medford won't be as bad and this count as historic?

[Kayla]

Probably going to be a 2" rainfall day today.

 

Timing of the front was perfect for a 2"+ day.

 

PDX has already broken their daily rainfall record with over a 0.6" of rainfall thus far.

 

Wettest October day for PDX is 2.44" set in 1994. Definitely within reach today.

[seattleweatherguy]

This is the feared blend of both models?

[BLI snowman]

Timing of the front was perfect for a 2"+ day.

 

PDX has already broken their daily rainfall record with over a 0.6" of rainfall thus far.

 

Wettest October day for PDX is 2.44" set in 1994. Definitely within reach today.

 

Could be, we'd need several hours of  intense .25"/hour rates though.

 

PDX also set its all time 24 hour record with that storm in 1994, 4.44" that mostly came over the course of one night. 

[Kayla]

Could be, we'd need several hours of  intense .25"/hour rates though.

 

PDX also set its all time 24 hour record with that storm in 1994, 4.44" that mostly came over the course of one night. 

 

Incredible. 

[westcoastexpat]

Medford won't be as bad and this count as historic?

 

Medford, OR? I don't think they're really in it. And I don't see this as "historic" for anyone quite yet.

[BLI snowman]

Models definitely coming in line now regarding a major storm. As expected, the latest WRF is easily the most impressive yet, showing 55kts over Portland. GEM looks similar.

[seattleweatherguy]

Medford, OR? I don't think they're really in it. And I don't see this as "historic" for anyone quite yet.

Gusts over 65 plus is really bad.

[westcoastexpat]

Gusts over 65 plus is really bad.

 

But we're not talking 85+ mph region wide like the CDS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rainfall as of 9am since Midnight:

 

PDX: .62

SLE: .61

HIO: .32

TTD: .57

AST: .89

EUG: .34

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.72" now at PDX. Putting them on pace for 1.73" today. 

[GobBluth]

Could be, we'd need several hours of  intense .25"/hour rates though.

 

PDX also set its all time 24 hour record with that storm in 1994, 4.44" that mostly came over the course of one night. 

I remember that storm - incredible amounts of rain and amazed how quick my manual rain gauge was filling up.

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian agrees very well with the 12Z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember that storm - incredible amounts of rain and amazed how quick my manual rain gauge was filling up.

 

Snow levels plummeted on the backside of that system. 

[stuffradio]

La Nina watch re-issued by CPC. 70% chance now... haha http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[Kayla]

0.72" now at PDX. Putting them on pace for 1.73" today. 

 

And the heaviest stuff doesn't arrive until this evening. Going to be a very wet day.

[Bryant]

La Nina watch re-issued by CPC. 70% chance now... haha http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

Never understood why they cancelled it to begin with, but this makes them look pretty bad

[TT-SEA]

Great graphic from NWS Portland showing the evolution of Saturday's storm on each past run of the GFS.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/786618961324498944

 

 

That is an awesome tool.    I saw that you can build a GIF trend file on that site.    Really helpful in analyzing the overall trend.

[Tyler Mode]

That is an awesome tool.    I saw that you can build a GIF trend file on that site.    Really helpful in analyzing the overall trend.

It also shows it some 20 mb weaker...

[Tundra]

Great graphic from NWS Portland showing the evolution of Saturday's storm on each past run of the GFS.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/786618961324498944

 

Nice trends!

[Tundra]

A lesser known model but in line of what the last night's EURO showed.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016101312/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_10.png

[Tundra]

I just checked my The Weather Channel App and for my work here in Hillsboro on Saturday it shows sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph with gust occasionally over 60 mph.

[Jbolin]

Ummmm

[Phil]

La Nina watch re-issued by CPC. 70% chance now... haha http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[Phil]

So, operational ECMWF schools all the other models again?

 

Why am I not surprised.

[TT-SEA]

Ummmm

 

 

12Z ECMWF trended farther offshore... lessening the effects down there.   

[BLI snowman]

Ummmm

 

Definitely weaker for Portland, but much higher winds for NW WA than previous Euro runs. Seems like the expected model compromise is taking place, 12z Euro and GFS finally look similar. 

[Jbolin]

12Z ECMWF trended farther offshore... lessening the effects down there.   

00Z should be very telling, best hope (for wind fans) is that the low bombs out closer to the coast for max potential to track along the coast but at this point who the hell knows.

[Phil]

Definitely weaker for Portland, but much higher winds for NW WA than previous Euro runs. Seems like the expected model compromise is taking place, 12z Euro and GFS finally look similar.

I think the ECMWF was closer overall, both in track and timing of the occlusion cycle.

 

Assuming these trends continue with their present conformation.

[BLI snowman]

I think the ECMWF was closer overall, both in track and timing of the occlusion cycle.

 

Well, it's still two days away from actually occurring 

 

But without question the Euro has now led the way. Continually showing why it's a superior model.

[westcoastexpat]

12Z Euro nothing special for Portland. Impacts shift further north.

[Kayla]

Besides the wind factor, 12z ECMWF shows 1.2" of rainfall between 5pm-10pm in the PDX area tonight.

 

Will be plenty of urban flooding if verified and would likely break the October rainiest day record.

[Kayla]

12Z Euro nothing special for Portland. Impacts shift further north.

 

60-65 mph wind gusts is still a dangerous situation this early in the season. We're still talking about big impacts region wide even with this run at face value.

[westcoastexpat]

Songda is moving quite a bit faster than the models have it. I wonder if this will hit Saturday afternoon instead.

[Jbolin]

Just tweeted by KSEA NWS 

 

UPDATE: Models beginning to have stronger agreement on worst-case scenario for Saturday storm.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Should rattle the leaves off.