October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Another big shot coming up it looks like. ECMWF suite less enthusiastic but similar story.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BB276442-A4D9-416C-8AD2-1E1AD083D9ED_zpsiqxodmyi.jpg

 

 

Big shot of rain?

[Phil]

Big shot of rain?

Poleward propagation of vertical wave activity/heat fluxes into the polar upper troposphere/stratosphere. In other words, another round of PV weakening, continued high latitude blocking, jet suppression over most of the NH.

 

Though this go around we have an initial retraction of the NPAC component, as opposed to an extension there. Probably less of an EPO contribution, more of an NAO contribution.

[Timmy Supercell]

Another big shot coming up it looks like. ECMWF suite less enthusiastic but similar story.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BB276442-A4D9-416C-8AD2-1E1AD083D9ED_zpsiqxodmyi.jpg

 

Big shot at another Columbus Day Storm fail? I need to get more wine, chinese food and pizza.

[Phil]

Big shot at another Columbus Day Storm fail? I need to get more wine, chinese food and pizza.

Pizza and wine..lol

[Kayla]

Jet has been way suppressed versus its usual position in the first half of October. I'm already over 7" for the month. Has to be a record through this point.

 

Wettest first 15 days of October at PDX. They are sitting at 5.12" of rainfall through yesterday. Record for the month is 8.44" set back in 1994. 

[TT-SEA]

Wettest first 15 days of October at PDX. They are sitting at 5.12" of rainfall through yesterday. Record for the month is 8.44" set back in 1994. 

 

 

Good information.   SEA must be close to a record for the first half of October as well at 5.16".

[Timmy Supercell]

Yesterday was a roller-coaster of sorts. It started really quick in Klamath Falls, woke up at 7am to already 50-55mph gusts... continued for a few hours not really getting stronger at all, I lost hope of it being big. 11:30am ish, a few gusts sounded 60. That was nice. Then got quieter, rain started to happen. Just when it seemed like it was all done, a quick 2nd round came about 2-3pm, more 50+ gusts. Then the moderate rain began and lasted a while. Quickly ended up with 0mph before I knew it. 

 

Mostly it was a non event in Klamath Falls. 55-60 is a bit more common here than you guys know. My signature will give you an idea. I had a couple events last year that surprised me more, and almost lost power in those.

[Timmy Supercell]

Pizza and wine..lol

 

It's actually a good combo. But make sure it's good pizza, otherwise you're just wasting the beverage. 

[TT-SEA]

Wettest first 15 days of October at PDX. They are sitting at 5.12" of rainfall through yesterday. Record for the month is 8.44" set back in 1994. 

 

 

I don't know the details on 1994... but it looks like it could not have been more different in my area for the first half of the month.    

 

It rained on just 2 days here through the 20th of October in 1994.      It has rained on all but 2 days here this month so far.   

[Kayla]

Poleward propagation of vertical wave activity/heat fluxes into the polar upper troposphere/stratosphere. In other words, another round of PV weakening, continued high latitude blocking, jet suppression over most of the NH.

 

Though this go around we have an initial retraction of the NPAC component, as opposed to an extension there. Probably less of an EPO contribution, more of an NAO contribution.

 

As in another strong zonal jet? If it's anything like this current wave we'll be looking at new monthly rainfall records region wide.

[Phil]

So far I'm impressed with the magnitude of blocking observed this month. While its early still, I didn't expect significant blocking until November, and wouldn't have been surprised if it's waited until December/January. There really isn't much precedent for this in Niña/+QBO Octobers. Only a few cases, most recent being 2010/11. From there, you have to go way back, 1942/43 and 1959/60.

[MossMan]

Some sunshine at times here on the day after our huge storm that did absolutely nothing at my location...

 

Nice! It's pouring here and dark.

Edit: sun is now out...still raining however.

[Kayla]

I don't know the details on 1994... but it looks like it could not have been more different in my area for the first half of the month.    

 

It rained on just 2 days here through the 20th of October in 1994.      It has rained on all but 2 days here this month so far.   

 

Similar story down here. 7.2" fell in the last 5 days of the month at PDX in 1994. That month also holds the greatest 24hr rainfall record at PDX of 4.44".

 

Much different pattern this year.

[Farmboy]

Where does sometimesdylan live?

It says Juneau, AK under his pic...

[Phil]

As in another strong zonal jet? If it's anything like this current wave we'll be looking at new monthly rainfall records region wide.

I'm thinking less of a NPAC jet, more -PNA/Aleutian ridging trying to develop this go around. Pattern is different over Eurasia.

[MossMan]

Monitoring the radar all weekend it seems like the Wa/Or coastal border area has just been hammered with moderate to heavy rain pretty much non stop!

[Front Ranger]

Monitoring the radar all weekend it seems like the Wa/Or coastal border area has just been hammered with moderate to heavy rain pretty much non stop!

 

Over 10" of rain this month so far at AST. Over 6" in the last 3 days.

 

Also...four days below average! But still running pretty warm for the month.

[Phil]

It's actually a good combo. But make sure it's good wine, otherwise you're just wasting the pizza.

FYP.

 

When I need my pizza fix, "The Georgetowner" by Manny & Olga's does the trick. Heaven in a box.

[Phil]

This would be impressive:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[Timmy Supercell]

Hard comprehending all of the alerts both NWS Portland/Medford have issued up and down the Oregon coastline over the past 48-60 hours. 10 Tornado Warnings (these were crunched in just a couple hours), 4 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, more than a dozen Special Marine Warnings. I have warning/watch info logged all the way back to 2000 and cannot recall any periods that were this active in such a short time. 

 

Tornado Warnings alone are likely close to record territory here. You'd probably have to go back 30-40+ years to find a day that many have been issued in the Portland CWA all at once. I don't think any days in the last 15 years have surpassed 2 TOR's...

[Parksvillewx]

5.7" of rain here for the month. I could see being up to 7" by the end of the week tho.

[TT-SEA]

Almost 10 days out... and the ECMWF still likes the idea of a massive GOA low.       Bring back the GOA ridge.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the daily CFS runs, it looks like a decent active early winter, no signs of arctic air though. Lots of cool troughing is signaled however. 

[ShawniganLake]

5.7" of rain here for the month. I could see being up to 7" by the end of the week tho.

Over 8" on the month here now. Average for October is close to 4.5". The 2003 record of 15" is going to be tough to reach.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another wet day. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Another wet day. 

 

Another "nice" day for a change in my book.

[Deweydog]

No lowland snow chances coming up.

 

Olympia about to post a positive anomaly for the day.

 

Seahawks imploding.

 

Worst. Day. Ever.

[MossMan]

No lowland snow chances coming up.

 

Olympia about to post a positive anomaly for the day.

 

Seahawks imploding.

 

Worst. Day. Ever.

Nothing to look forward to at all. Going to become a Cowboys fan.

[TT-SEA]

Monitoring the radar all weekend it seems like the Wa/Or coastal border area has just been hammered with moderate to heavy rain pretty much non stop!

 

 

Being pounded again in that area down there.

[Weather101]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 9.74" of rain so far on the month. 

[luminen]

Up to 9.74" of rain so far on the month. 

 

The question is, will we continue to see such wet conditions or will we dry out as winter starts?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The question is, will we continue to see such wet conditions or will we dry out as winter starts?

 

I do not think we will continue to be this anomalously wet. Overall above normal precip should continue for awhile now. 

[Front Ranger]

Being pounded again in that area down there.

 

TMI...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really like the last week of the month on the 18z. I bet Jim does too. 

[Sometimesdylan]

I live in Juneau Alaska.

 

7.7 inches at sea level. First time we've had snow before Fairbanks and Anchorage since 1926.

[TT-SEA]

TMI...

 

[Bryant]

I really like the last week of the month on the 18z. I bet Jim does too.

Count me in

[TT-SEA]

I live in Juneau Alaska.

 

7.7 inches at sea level. First time we've had snow before Fairbanks and Anchorage since 1926.

 

 

Did it all melt?

 

I was checking web cams to see the snow and can't find it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I live in Juneau Alaska.

 

7.7 inches at sea level. First time we've had snow before Fairbanks and Anchorage since 1926.

 

Wow! This seems pretty early for snow in Juneau, am I correct in this thought?