November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

Great, it's following the rest of 12z guidance. At the pool now, will post maps when I get in unless someone else wants to. Has a 987mb coming out of CO and tracking towards IA Day 10.

 

Sweet

987???

 

..and yesterday, the models were showing the mega-storm potential deep in the SE instead. What's a mere 1500 mile miss? 

 

I think we need to chill on anything outside the 120 hr mark. The d10 phantoms are among us once again, but why pander to them?  

[Grizzcoat]

November for most reading this is the cloudiest month of the year. The NWS- point and click 7 day forecast for my local here in C.IA has a "mostly clear" or few clouds tonight. Other then that-- no mention of any clouds until next Mon morning. Very odd that even with CLR skies at night temps are running so far above normal. Hopefully that changes in the mid/long range as this weather is getting like San Diego!!!

[jaster220]

November for most reading this is the cloudiest month of the year. The NWS- point and click 7 day forecast for my local here in C.IA has a "mostly clear" or few clouds tonight. Other then that-- no mention of any clouds until next Mon morning. Very odd that even with CLR skies at night temps are running so far above normal. Hopefully that changes in the mid/long range as this weather is getting like San Diego!!!

 

So true that! At least I have a 27º low Friday night but even that feels like chump change compared to say, 3 yrs ago at the same time when the forecast for St. Joe was Heavy Snow and 32º for the high. 

[Tom]

After doing some analyzing, I think today's 12z guidance fits the overall pattern next week, esp with the Day 8-10 storm system coming out of the Rockies. First of all, it fits the the MJO Phase 1 temp composite during the OND period (see below).  There is a signal for a weak SE ridge.  When the storm ejects out of the Rockies, both GFS/EURO have it in Phase 1.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/OND/combined_image.png

 

Generally speaking, to have all 3 global models agree in placement of the system in the Day 9-10 range is not by chance.  Prob will be a trend going forward.  Here is the 12z Euro...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110812/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110812/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

 

 

Lastly, I want to comment on the East Asian Theory.  The powerful storm targeting near Siberia (clearly NW of Japan) should translate to take a NW track out of the Rockies. Might even go through SD/ND, depending on how much blocking evolves in NW NAMER. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110712/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fe_1.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_fe_1.png

 

 

The SE ridge going forward might not be a far stretch of the imagination.  Here's why, the raging Pacific jet will subside on the eastern Pacific side of the N PAC.  GEFS are showing a shift in the N PAC pattern and clearly highlighting the west PAC near East Asia.

 

By Day 10, notice how the East Asian jet ramps up and on the other side of the ocean, the jet weakens near the west coast allowing it to start targeting California.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110812/gfs-ens_uv250_nhem_41.png

 

 

In the extend period, I think we may be seeing a SW Flow evolve...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110812/gfs-ens_uv250_nhem_61.png

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Nice work. It certainly would be a more climo typical outcome. Seems to carry-over a theme from last winter though where the storms weakened as the headed towards the Lakes. Would like to get back to the days when systems strengthened coming our way. 

[Tom]

FWIW, 12z EPS showing a CO Low Day 9....with a HP off the SE coast...I went through the last 2 days worth of GFS runs in East Asia, nearly all of them have storms tracking just NW of Japan, and there are a ton of systems over the next 2 weeks.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016110812/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_10.png

[Niko]

I swear, today felt like it was May. The sky had this tropical look to it. Near 61F for a high. Gorgeous to be outside.

[Niko]

The cold that was forecasted by weeks end keeps to be getting washed away. My highs are barely in the 40s. From highs near 40, now upper 40s to near 50.

[Tom]

So, hearing that there's a Strato PV and a Tropo PV and we best not confuse the two because Tropo will be the one that really controls whos' got the cold temps, and the Strato nasso much. Anybody more knowledgeable, feel free to confirm/comment on this.

 

Meanwhile, not sure if this 500mb qualifies as either, but I liked how DT used it to illustrate the (sad) situation:

 

20161108 500mb for 4-Nov.PNG

True, the lag period is usually 2-3 weeks when SSW events effects start playing out. Btw, that map is from Oct 21st. Not sure why he posted that map now bc it's nowhere near the pattern currently. The heights are rising where the PV is located on that map.

[Niko]

Hard freeze expected in all of SEMI Friday night, even in downtown Detroit. My area is likely to get down into the mid to upper 20s.

[james1976]

Nice 18z GFS run. See what tonight's models bring us.

[OKwx2k4]

Glad Hillary cancelled those fireworks! :-)

[Madtown]

Rural America waking up this evening. It's a beautiful thing.

[Tom]

Rural America waking up this evening. It's a beautiful thing.

Wiso pulls it off!  I love this state for many reasons!  Speaking of waking up, the models are waking up and the GFS is on fire for a potential big storm next week.

 

Huge trough being forecast coming out of CO...nice trend...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110900/gfs_asnow_wus_41.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110900/gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png

[CentralNebWeather]

Good stuff. Thanks big 10 conference for the trump votes. Bring it home Michigan. And by the way, love seeing snowfall maps again. Thanks guys.

[clintbeed1993]

Lock her up!

[OKwx2k4]

I'm so proud of these big beautiful red central states and Great Lakes states.

[GDR]

[GDR]

[james1976]

Im happy Trump won!

Looking forward to seeing what this storm does next week. How was Euro?

[Tom]

I'm glad the people of this great nation rose up and saw the lies and crookedness of the Clintons.  It's time to say good bye to the elites who run this nation. Let's just hope there isn't any civil unrest and Mr. O pulls the trigger.  On a side note, I wonder what implications a Trump presidency will have on the AGW crowd???

 

Now, back to the weather and your normal broadcast....

 

00z Euro still has a storm but splits up the energy...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110900/ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

 

 

GEFS continue the storm to track towards the western Lakes...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110906/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_34.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110906/gfs-ens_mslpa_us_39.png

[westMJim]

First off congratulations to Trump.  The country has made its choice and yes this election was a surprise of a life time.  Now we get to sit back and see how this will all play out. One thing it remember is to always expect the unexpected. With the election in mind that will bring to my winter ideas that maybe (just maybe) the winter will not turn out as expected. Although of course it will turn colder and yes we will see snow this winter (it could be very cold and there could be a lot of snow) My guess right now is that it could be a “back loaded” winter with more cold and snow the later we get into the season. As with everything in life we shall see how it plays out.

[Niko]

Congrats to Mr. Trump. Now, lock her up and throw away the key permanently.

[Niko]

First off congratulations to Trump.  The country has made its choice and yes this election was a surprise of a life time.  Now we get to sit back and see how this will all play out. One thing it remember is to always expect the unexpected. With the election in mind that will bring to my winter ideas that maybe (just maybe) the winter will not turn out as expected. Although of course it will turn colder and yes we will see snow this winter (it could be very cold and there could be a lot of snow) My guess right now is that it could be a “back loaded” winter with more cold and snow the later we get into the season. As with everything in life we shall see how it plays out.

That's what I think also. We will see how it all plays out.

[Niko]

Tomorrows highs are projected to be in the mid 60's with sunny skies. What a November.

[Tom]

I'm very interested to see where this storm tracks next week and how it may influence the pattern going forward.  GEFS/CFSv2 and JMA Weeklies from last week are hinting at a southern stream storm track.  Interestingly, the CFSv2 a few weeks ago had been showing a very active storm track for weeks cutting up through the central CONUS but recently has been going back and forth.  This is why we all need to be a little patient and see how the next couple weeks evolve.  IMO, there is some validity that there may be a ridge off the SE coast as we roll into December.  Without any big time -NAO block, it will be tough.

 

GEFS...SW Flow anyone???

 

Around the 17th...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110906/gfs-ens_uv250_namer_35.png

 

 

Then it gets interesting...

 

21st...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110906/gfs-ens_uv250_namer_51.png

 

 

Thanksgiving period...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016110906/gfs-ens_uv250_namer_63.png

[NEJeremy]

Grab em by the pu**y!! and Donald truly does represent the working class, dumbest thing yet I've heard about Donald. born into a rich family, given money by his dad. multiple bankruptcies and fraud cases, hasn't paid taxes in 20 years. great businessman for America riiigghhhtttt. He has no idea what it's like to be a working class man. all of his stuff is made in foreign countries. flat chested woman can never be a 10. black people are lazy. actually had his twitter account privileges revoked by his team because of the stupid sh*t he said and couldn't keep from saying at 3 in the morning, yet you want a guy with that temperament in charge of the nuclear codes. Can't wait until we have our troops spread all over this world because of every little thing some country did "wrong" and Trump attacks them. We'll be lucky if there isn't a nuclear strike in the first year of his presidency.....

You can be happy that you got someone elected who is going to change the system or whatever B.S. you want to call it, but you by no means voted in a better person. period. 

[stratosjeff]

Let it go NEJeremy, go check out a third world country. It will allow you to realize how good you actually have it... He won because people are tired of the system in place, you should be too. This is weather board, not a political rant forum. Stay on FB for the drama. You are lucky enough to be part of a country that allows you to bash the next leader of the nation... heard if goes over well in North Korea and Russia.

[Tom]

12z GFS with a 983mb bomb in C NE!  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

[Tom]

Wow, this run its showing 50-70,mph wind gusts in NE!  Holy shnikes!

 

Edit: Nice snow storm for the Dakotas and NW MN....6-12" storm

[gabel23]

12z GFS with a 983mb bomb in C NE!  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016110912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_34.png

Classic late fall/early winter track. I'm loving the trends, if we can get about 2-4 weeks of active weather for this years LRC I will take it!! 

[Tom]

@ Gable, it aint over bc a week later another storm digs towards Cali and the storm train continues for Thanksgiving week!  Gosh, this smells like 2007-2008.  Hope GEFS/EPS/CFSv2 trends are right.

[gosaints]

Wow what a torch ahead of that trough

[james1976]

GFS looks like backside snow for N IA. Any snowmaps?

[gabel23]

GFS looks like backside snow for N IA. Any snowmaps?

Doesn't look like much for the next week's storm but here is the complete run. One thing to take away, things might finally be switching to cold around these parts just in time for the holiday season!! 

[jaster220]

 

 

One thing to take away, things might finally be switching to cold around these parts just in time for the holiday season!! 

 

Cubs win the Series.. Trump scores upset to take the White House...  this should remind us ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!

 

Don't lose the dream peeps!  Here's to Ma Nature giving global long range models the middle finger and us a white holiday season! 

[westMJim]

Cubs win the Series.. Trump scores upset to take the White House...  this should remind us ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!!

 

Don't lose the dream peeps!  Here's to Ma Nature giving global long range models the middle finger and us a white holiday season! 

Expect the unexpected and you will seldom be surprised.

[Tom]

12z Euro back with a strong storm near KC and another off the west coast.  Rising heights over NW NAMER should keep the storm track over Cali.  I hope we are seeing the evolution of a colder/stormier pattern.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016110912/ecmwf_mslpa_namer_10.png

[Tom]

Interesting, 12z EPS digging the trough towards TX Panhandle...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016110912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

Next trough following on it's heels...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016110912/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

[clintbeed1993]

Looks like this Trump presidency is going to MAKE WINTER GREAT AGAIN!