November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Karl Bonner]

It's been very impressive. Of course, the difference between average highs and record highs now is smaller than most of the rest of the year.

 

1921 and 1949 are probably the closest to what we've seen to start this month in many places.

 

November 1949 was followed 2 1/2 months later, by the coldest arctic blast ever recorded at DLS airport, down to -25F. 

 

I'm amazed you brought up the difference between average and record highs at this time of year.  Huge bonus if you can explain why the gap is small in late fall. 

[BLI snowman]

Don't mention 1980-81 around Jim. That's the Achilles heel of our analogs this year, along with 1933-34. 

 

And 1966-67. 

[snow_wizard]

Don't mention 1980-81 around Jim. That's the Achilles heel of our analogs this year, along with 1933-34.

1980-81 is the only one that worries me at all. The context was much different with 1933-34. 1999-2000 was the second year of a strong La Nina so it's far from being an analog. No doubt history is on our side.

[snow_wizard]

And 1966-67.

1966-67 featured anomalous troughing over the GOA June - Oct....total opposite of this year. No real November torch either.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS
....Begins in 1 minute....
I'd be just fine if this is anything like 12z. Cooler, NW flow, mountain snows. I don't want to see it warmer/ridging like the 12z ECMWF showed. Real slim chance we'll see any blocking this run.

[Jesse]

850s drop over 10 degrees over the next two days. Chill out dude! Sheesh.

I'm chill. It is what it is. We look to start cooling down close to average by Tuesday. Unless the models continue to push things back of course. It was looking like tomorrow would be the last torchy day for awhile there.

[Jesse]

It was a clear, mild evening with a slight breeze in Portland, but socked in in Tigard once I hit exit 294 and dropped into Fanno Creek valley. I doubt they burned off much today.

 

Currently 50 with some pea soup out there. Very dense fog.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The middle of next week will be a definite shock to the system up here... High of 70 today. Looks like mid-40s at best by then. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the 00z GFS through hour 288.

[snow_wizard]

I like the 00z GFS through hour 288.

Pretty nice run tonight. Some serious negative PNA for a good part of the run.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a few good soakers showing up on the again. Easily going to be one of the wettest Oct / Nov combos on record. Another good sign.

[Jesse]

00z GFS is definitely a bit of an improvement.

[Front Ranger]

SEA had 23.3" in 2008-09. 

 

Their total in 1996-97 would have been around the same. I think around 9" in November 1996,  13" in December 1996, and 1" in March 1997. 

 

I think they had more in December and less in November, but either way about the same total.

[BLI snowman]

I think they had more in December and less in November, but either way about the same total.

 

They have snow depth data from that winter which gives a pretty good approximation.

 

They also recorded 7"  officially on 11/19/1996. That was a nice, somewhat forgotten wet snowstorm for pretty much all of western WA. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

And then their depth in the December event peaked at 10" on 12/29, which I'd assume was slightly less than their snow total for the 12/26/-12/29 period since some melting occurred.  Downtown Seattle actually did better than SEA with that event.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/12/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

[Deweydog]

60 degrees at 10pm on a partly cloudy November 10th at PDX.

 

Good times.

[Timmy]

60 degrees at 10pm on a partly cloudy November 10th at PDX.

 

Good times.

Perfect weather for a riot apparently

[Front Ranger]

They have snow depth data from that winter which gives a pretty good approximation.

 

They also recorded 7"  officially on 11/19/1996. That was a nice, somewhat forgotten wet snowstorm for pretty much all of western WA. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

And then their depth in the December event peaked at 10" on 12/29, which I'd assume was slightly less than their snow total for the 12/26/-12/29 period since some melting occurred.  Downtown Seattle actually did better than SEA with that event.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/12/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

Well, I know that in Tacoma we got 3-4" with the initial December storm before it turned to ice (and compacted). Then about 9" with the second storm before it quickly turned to rain and compacted/melted. In general, places further north got more snow. Given that, and the general nature of the snow that fell - rapid compaction - I don't think the max snow depth is that close to what they got altogether. Probably more like 15-16" in December, and the 7-8" in November.

[stuffradio]

Perfect weather for a riot apparently

Did you know global warming causes riots?

[BLI snowman]

Well, I know that in Tacoma we got 3-4" with the initial December storm before it turned to ice (and compacted). Then about 9" with the second storm before it quickly turned to rain and compacted/melted. In general, places further north got more snow. Given that, and the general nature of the snow that fell - rapid compaction - I don't think the max snow depth is that close to what they got altogether. Probably more like 15-16" in December, and the 7-8" in November.

 

Judging from the obs/depths, that seems pretty close to what SEA got as well. 

 

The 12/26/1996 storm seemed to have a really sharp freezing rain/snow cutoff right around Downtown Seattle. The station just north of downtown measured 22.5" that month and even Sandpoint had about 18". 

[Timmy]

Did you know global warming causes riots?

Had I known that a long time ago I would have fought it. I always though the pnw was a tad cold anyways and thought we could use an extra degree or two.

[Deweydog]

Perfect weather for a riot apparently

We could really use a 1955 repeat right meow.

[TT-SEA]

60 degrees at 10pm on a partly cloudy November 10th at PDX.

 

Good times.

 

62 degrees here at 11 p.m. with a bright moon shining.   Many clear summer nights are not this warm.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a good mountain snow pattern next week.   

 

Time for winter to start here... season ski passes need to be put to use soon.   

[Timmy Supercell]

High of 71 today in Klamath Falls. This breaks the previous record of 63 in 2013. Smashed by 8 degrees!

 

And this is now the 3rd day in a row to break record highs.

[snow_wizard]

Certainly some nice height and pressure rises over the GOA next week, but the details still keep things from getting really cold. On the other hand it's very possible we will begin seeing some highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s next week.

[snow_wizard]

They have snow depth data from that winter which gives a pretty good approximation.

 

They also recorded 7"  officially on 11/19/1996. That was a nice, somewhat forgotten wet snowstorm for pretty much all of western WA. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

And then their depth in the December event peaked at 10" on 12/29, which I'd assume was slightly less than their snow total for the 12/26/-12/29 period since some melting occurred.  Downtown Seattle actually did better than SEA with that event.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/12/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

The Nov 1996 snow event was pretty nice. I still remember that one clearly. I had about 7 inches at my place and remember it being cold enough for icicles during the afternoon of the day it fell.

 

A few days earlier I had driven up to Whatcom County and was amazed how rapidly the snow depth increased from Bellingham to Lynden.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Certainly some nice height and pressure rises over the GOA next week, but the details still keep things from getting really cold. On the other hand it's very possible we will begin seeing some highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s next week.

 

At face value not even that close to snow at my elevation, but a step in the right direction. 

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF and GFS both continue to show improvement on the PNA forecast and the analogs to the 6z GFS were excellent.

[FroYoBro]

White Christmas. You heard it here first folks. God bless America! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given I will be out of state December 14-22 I would say that is probably a time to keep an eye on.

[Jesse]

Pretty unbelievable that PDX couldn't fall below 50 on a clear and calmish night in early-mid November.

[FroYoBro]

Pretty unbelievable that PDX couldn't fall below 50 on a clear and calmish night in early-mid November.

What is PDX running so far in November? Must be crazy high. 

[Jesse]

What is PDX running so far in November? Must be crazy high.

I haven't even looked. It would probably take a solidly below normal second half of the month to avoid an all-time warm November, though.

[stuffradio]

Today, the CFSv2 monthly has cold focused on the PNW for December, everywhere else is warm!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today, the CFSv2 monthly has cold focused on the PNW for December, everywhere else is warm!

 

Have any maps we can see?

[stuffradio]

Have any maps we can see?

Yeah, this is what I look at almost daily.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS is a bit of a turd sandwich.

[bainbridgekid]

Given I will be out of state December 14-22 I would say that is probably a time to keep an eye on.

December 17th-January 2nd for me.

 

Mark it down. Take a picture. The second half if December will be epic in the PNW.

[Jesse]

The 12z GFS is a bit of a turd sandwich.

 

Not much different from previous runs really.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December 17th-January 2nd for me.

 

Mark it down. Take a picture. The second half if December will be epic in the PNW.

 

I thought about it. If I had been gone December 14-22, 2008 I would have essentially missed everything.