stuffradio Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 I like the carrots in the 6Z. Let's see what the 12Z has in store. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 00z ECMWF Ensembles quite similar to the operational. Trough over us, quite chilly at times, lots of cold storms moving in from the NW, and a ton of mountain snow. The positive anomaly is in a great location if we were to see amplification as we end the month. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016111700/ecmwf-ens_z500a_npac_11.png That there is a PDO-droppin' pattern. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Models have definitely been milding up. Yesterday's average departure will probably end up our coolest day this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 12z gfs looks good in the believable range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 12z gfs looks good in the believable range.Maybe for mountain snow. I never like warming trends over consecutive runs though, since they have a habit of getting carried away these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Models have definitely been milding up. Yesterday's average departure will probably end up our coolest day this month.Agreed.. Trend has been disheartening. Definitely looks like no warning shots into December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Maybe for mountain snow. I never like warming trends over consecutive runs though, since they have a habit of getting carried away these days.this time of the year I think we should be happy with a pattern giving mountain snow. I'm a little worried with how El Nino splitty it's trying to get way out there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 this time of the year I think we should be happy with a pattern giving mountain snow. I'm a little worried with how El Nino splitty it's trying to get way out there.That's true. I am a little annoyed that our window for sub-40 temps in the lowlands this week is closing, though. LR GFS looks splitty? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yeah the main problem with the pattern have been how the lows kind of drop offshore and cutoff. The ensemble mean is pretty much CLIMO throughout the run. Probably continues the run of mild overnight lows however. I don't have a great feeling about December, but am actually starting to feel a little better about January. Certainly will not be a "front loaded" winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Despite the aforementioned Hadley Cell issues, there's some good news with regards to the latest stratospheric developments, and I'm starting to think these developments will be crucial to the upcoming winter. The GEFS/EPS members are almost in unanimous agreement with a partial to complete wind reversal @ 60N, at/below 10mb, with a partial to complete destruction of the PV looking increasingly possible. This will assist in not only maintaining high latitude blocking, but will also act to cool the equatorial tropopause/lower stratosphere, which will favor an increase in near equator convection relative to off equator convection. This may act to contract and tighten the Hadley Cells equatorward, and open up the door for a NPAC regime change in December. Usually in cases like this, I'd expect the EPO to tank, and that broad/flat anticyclone south of the Aleutian to disintegrate. Here's latest GEFS forecast (Hannah Attard's site). This is fairly significant. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 It would be fascinating if PDX made it to the end of the month with a seasonal low of 41. I don't think there's any precedent for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 The short range GFS suggests I will reach over my usual 12" of rain for November. Not sure what I got last night, but I'm somewhere between 8 and 9" of rain already, so 12" shouldn't be hard. Before hour 240 gives us 524 thickness at hour 216 above the border. The week going into December would actually be dry, but like we have said countless times when we see patterns we like at hour 384, it's hour 384... so don't get depressed because it shows ridgy weather going into December just because it's not arctic cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yeah the main problem with the pattern have been how the lows kind of drop offshore and cutoff. The ensemble mean is pretty much CLIMO throughout the run. Probably continues the run of mild overnight lows however. I don't have a great feeling about December, but am actually starting to feel a little better about January. Certainly will not be a "front loaded" winter.Have you managed a freeze yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 So, if the equatorial/tropical response to the strawarm is coherent and successful in reigning in the Hadley Cells and lowering the wavenumber, the door opens for something significant in December, and possibly beyond. However, if the wide Hadley Cell background state is just too much to overcome, and the response fails or fails to complete and/or cycle, both December and January could be very problematic over the NPAC. Will have to watch these developments closely. In my opinion, the importance of getting this right cannot be understated. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Agreed.. Trend has been disheartening. Definitely looks like no warning shots into December. Well, the years SW likes to reference that had multiple "warning shots" before a huge event (usually in January) typically didn't see them until December. Sometimes mid December. I think we're definitely moving in the right direction. Halfway through November...patience. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 So much nervousness coming from this board these last few days! Many of you have already leaped off the ledge while meteorological winter is still 2 weeks away! I remind you what things looked like in the beginning of December 2008. Things were much more dire than the pattern that is on the horizon over the next 10 days. I'm with Snow Wiz on this one, things are aligning well for a mid December through January blast. 12z ECMWF continues the trend of moving more and more cold air over to this side of the globe. Very positive steps to seeing something great December through January. Patience everyone! 4 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 So much nervousness coming from this board these last few days! Many of you have already leaped off the ledge while meteorological winter is still 2 weeks away! I remind you what things looked like in the beginning of December 2008. Things were much more dire than the pattern that is on the horizon over the next 10 days. I'm with Snow Wiz on this one, things are aligning well for a mid December through January blast. 12z ECMWF continues the trend of moving more and more cold air over to this side of the globe. Very positive steps to seeing something great December through January. Patience everyone!I know!! If it wasn't so much work I would go to the Nov. 2008 archives and grab a couple of posts of people leaping off the edge at this time that year! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Nothing close to freezing in Tigard this morning, I had a low of 40. Perhaps a shot at a light frost tonight. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Have you managed a freeze yet? No, Given yesterdays high of 44 I thought I had a chance, but I only had a low of 38 this morning. Maybe if we can get some clearing tonight. Really haven't even come close to a solid freeze yet. Which is astounding, it really is not hard to do. In 2011-12 cold season I had about 120-130 freezes I believe...Something like that. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 33F here this morning. So close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 No, Given yesterdays high of 44 I thought I had a chance, but I only had a low of 38 this morning. Maybe if we can get some clearing tonight. Really haven't even come close to a solid freeze yet. Which is astounding, it really is not hard to do. In 2011-12 cold season I had about 120-130 freezes I believe...Something like that. Not the same climate as back then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 So much nervousness coming from this board these last few days! Many of you have already leaped off the ledge while meteorological winter is still 2 weeks away! I remind you what things looked like in the beginning of December 2008. Things were much more dire than the pattern that is on the horizon over the next 10 days. I'm with Snow Wiz on this one, things are aligning well for a mid December through January blast. 12z ECMWF continues the trend of moving more and more cold air over to this side of the globe. Very positive steps to seeing something great December through January. Patience everyone!People are just nervous because the last few years have been turds. Plus we have come to expect nothing from January and February in recent memory. January 2012 for seattle feels like an eternity. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Kind of fun going back in the archives! Not many were convinced that Dec. 2008 would be nothing other than a torch fest! Except BainbridgeKidhttp://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23636-why-2008s-warm-november-could-be-good/ 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Kind of fun going back in the archives! Not many were convinced that Dec. 2008 would be nothing other than a torch fest! Except BainbridgeKidhttp://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23636-why-2008s-warm-november-could-be-good/ Pretty hilarious that people were calling for a December torch fest on the 2nd that year! Just another reminder how quick the models can change as we head into winter. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Kind of fun going back in the archives! Not many were convinced that Dec. 2008 would be nothing other than a torch fest! Except BainbridgeKidhttp://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23636-why-2008s-warm-november-could-be-good/So true.... I love the quote (below) from Dec 2nd 2008... So many more just like that were calling for December to suck. WE all know how it turned out though. So, any poo-pooing winter this early may be a bit premature. Patience folks! "Wow there's a pretty strong signal that at least the majority of December will be warm. That doesn't mean we can rule out a small cold spell. Hey, how about the first 23 days average significantly above normal, and the last 8 days significantly below, starting with Christmas EVE!!!!!" Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 I feel like our chance this year is Dec. 25-Feb. 5. I think we'll at least get one solid modified outbreak. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Not as chilly today. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Out to hour 108 on the 18z GFS it looks to be a marginally cooler run. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Not as chilly today.Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month! Will December be the next domino to fall? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!Might as well... It would be kind of a shame for what was an epic first half of the month to get lost in mediocrity due to a chillyish second half. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!******* Hadley cells. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Anybody seen the Euro weeklies? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Anybody seen the Euro weeklies?No. Have you? IbrChris, Westcoastexpat? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Weakening polar vortex may yield longer, harsher winters in North America Longer, harsher winters may be in store for the portions of North America as the polar vortex continues to weaken and shifts, according to a new study. The polar vortex is a large pocket of frigid air that hovers above the polar regions, and is most prominent in the winter months.Researchers at China's Lanzhou University penned the study, which was published in Nature Climate Change last month. Full article here: http://www.accuweather.com/en/features/trend/weakening_shifting_polar_vortex_study_longer_harsher_winters_north_america/61622468 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 18z sure gets dangerously chilly. Winter saving run right there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 The ECMWF shows one patch of lowland snow in the next 10 days... between Mt Vernon and Bellingham. Bryant is going to discover that he lives in a small area that is very favorable for snow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yup. What was looking like a 50/40 spread has morphed into a 55/45. Par for the course. Just one step closer to a record warm month!Yeah and it totally ruined my day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 18z isn't bad. Nothing to thrilling.. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yeah and it totally ruined my day But then I remembered Trump is now President-elect and I decided life is worth living. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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