November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW. BLOCKING anyone?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112500/gfs_z500a_npac_48.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

Holy freezing cow balls

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112500/gfs_T850_nwus_48.png

Well Baton down the hatches Gorton that ones a chilly one... frozen cow farts cold!

[Jesse]

I remember November 1995 being exceptionally mild.

I was a little too young to remember much about that one. That is indeed the year that we are courting the record for this year though. Epic mid-winter followed.

[Deweydog]

There were actually a lot of sunny days in the first ten days. Of course the ridiculously mild airmasses over us at the time only allowed a drop into the mid-40s on clear nights.

It was lovely.

[Deweydog]

I was a little too young to remember much about that one. That is indeed the year that we are courting the record for this year though. Epic mid-winter followed.

Coldest high was 51 degrees.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is a pretty lengthy outbreak too. For whatever reason that December 6-12th time frame is a common one here in the PNW. We'll see what kind of outlier it is.

[Jesse]

It was lovely.

Maybe, but that kind of throws the cloudy month thing out the window.

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's see if there are any improvements with the Ensembles tonight. Seeing that support would be nice.

[FroYoBro]

It is a pretty lengthy outbreak too. For whatever reason that December 6-12th time frame is a common one here in the PNW. We'll see what kind of outlier it is.

 

December is our only winter month now. We have to make it count! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest high was 51 degrees.

 

There was actually some chilly weather at the end of October though. We had a few lows in the upper 20s in late October down in Silverton. I think we made up for it later in the winter though. We flirted with snow too, a few days before the Dec. 12 wind storm. 

[BLI snowman]

I was a little too young to remember much about that one. That is indeed the year that we are courting the record for this year though. Epic mid-winter followed.

 

November 1998 was more pathetic than November 1995, since 1995 at least had a cold start. 1998 was wall to wall cloudcover and it didn't have a freeze until the 28th here.

[Deweydog]

Maybe, but kind of throws the cloudy month thing the window.

Generally to get lows well into the 30's, especially early in the month, you need a coolish, dry air mass. By now it's pretty easy, but it's been very cloudy. It's cloudy tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What if this happens and it is just the beginning

[Deweydog]

There was actually some chilly weather at the end of October though. We had a few lows in the upper 20s in late October down in Silverton. I think we made up for it later in the winter though. We flirted with snow too, a few days before the Dec. 12 wind storm.

Had a little ice around the 9th with what was initially progged to be a major outbreak 5-6 days out.

[DareDuck]

I can beat all of that. Exactly 0.00" last 24 hours and counting...

Pretty sure no one outside of SE OR has seen less than us this month.

[FroYoBro]

What if this happens and it is just the beginning

But what if it doesn't happen? 

 

Hmmmmm.....

[Gradient Keeper]

What if this happens and it is just the beginning

That's what I was saying earlier this week. What if we see this pattern in December begin around the 3rd - 6th  lasting 2-3 weeks through Christmas. Then some restructuring to the NPAC pattern, renewed blocking Jan 2nd - 5th for more blasts.

[Deweydog]

What if this happens and it is just the beginning

Warmest November on record?

[BLI snowman]

It is a pretty lengthy outbreak too. For whatever reason that December 6-12th time frame is a common one here in the PNW. We'll see what kind of outlier it is.

 

Three major events in an eight year period on the exact same days would be pretty ridiculous. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Three major events in an eight year period on the exact same days would be pretty ridiculous. 

 

It would be, but they say things come in 3's. That's science right?! 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 00z GEM is nice. I love the Blocking!

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112500/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

One thing seems pretty obvious. The Pacific is probably gonna shut down for a bit pretty soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warmest November on record?

 

Probably

[BLI snowman]

It would be, but they say things come in 3's. That's science right?! 

 

Good January goes out the window though.

[MossMan]

Wind gusts!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The updated run of the 00z GEM is nice. I love the Blocking!

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016112500/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

Its a little further west on the GEM

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good January goes out the window though.

 

FML!

[Gradient Keeper]

Its a little further west on the GEM

Yep, more potential of a snowy pattern instead of just a cold, dry northeasterly blast.

[Heavy Snow]

Its a little further west on the GEM

Yeah but the minor details should sort themselves out. The ridge should tilt in our favor.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Even if it is something a little less awesome than what the models tonight are showing I think we'd all be happy. 

[The Swamp]

It's always winter in the clown range.  Always.

[Gradient Keeper]

Even if it is something a little less awesome than what the models tonight are showing I think we'd all be happy. 

I would take 27-32 and snow.

[HighlandExperience]

December is our only winter month now. We have to make it count!

Sad but true

[Gradient Keeper]

January will bring back to life the hopes and dreams of distant memories where snow and cold was abundant.

 

#MJGA

[ShawniganLake]

Down to just 37F here with moderate rain. A few days ago it looked like it might snow here tonight. Things trended a few degrees too warm since then, unfortunately.

 

I find the 0z to be acceptable, but a little too dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to just 37F here with moderate rain. A few days ago it looked like it might snow here tonight. Things trended a few degrees too warm since then, unfortunately.

 

I find the 0z to be acceptable, but a little too dry.

 

Remember that beggars can't be choosers. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see PDX has bumped up to 50. 

[MossMan]

Very windy now, rain slamming the southeast portion of the house.

[ShawniganLake]

Remember that beggars can't be choosers.

I want to have my cake and eat it too, thanks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am getting ready to laugh out loud when I see the 00z ensembles.