SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Hope DJ's mom is still doing ok...he is usually awake by the Euro. I hope so too. Sounds like he had a rough day yesterday so it would be nice if he was getting some rest. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Fairly significant differences again by day 5 between GFS and Euro, as GFS is more progressive. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I definitely like where this is going! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120212/120/500h_mslp.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 KING EURO ALERT! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I have a gut feeling that this is only the beginning. We have a very decent shot at having one of the coldest winters in 40 years. I'm almost certain that this will be the start of a new regime. History tells us that this is going to be an epic winter. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Yesterday's CFSv2 monthly for Jan was pretty torchy for the PNW. Today it's colder than avg. Score! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I have a gut feeling that this is only the beginning. We have a very decent shot at having one of the coldest winters in 40 years. I'm almost certain that this will be the start of a new regime. History tells us that this is going to be an epic winter.That's more like it!!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I'm headed to our property out in Bozeman later next week...It's looking just a wee bit nippy! 850s of -21C! Looking forward (or not) to some true arctic air at an added bonus of 5,000ft of elevation! 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Yesterday's CFSv2 monthly for Jan was pretty torchy for the PNW. Today it's colder than avg. Score! Always go with the cold run! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 That's more like it!!!I'm learning ;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I have a gut feeling that this is only the beginning. We have a very decent shot at having one of the coldest winters in 40 years. I'm almost certain that this will be the start of a new regime. History tells us that this is going to be an epic winter. I like your attitude. Low solar activity plays a huge role in our overall pattern (as well as the rest of the earth). I would like to see the glaciers return and begin encroaching into places never before seen in the last century. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I like your attitude. Low solar activity plays a huge role in our overall pattern (as well as the rest of the earth). I would like to see the glaciers return and begin encroaching into places never before seen in the last century. Good luck with that. Glaciers are disappearing all over the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Always go with the cold run!I just go with what I like to see, TBH. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Although we should be focusing on Monday/Tuesday more than anything at this point, the 12z Euro shows widespread 3-4 inches falling on Friday morning from Olympia-Canada. Hangs on to the cold air longer than the 00z. That being said, 850s are only -3 to -4c and 925s are 0c around Olympia to -3 near Bellingham, so it's a little suspicious. More importantly, much more precip around for Monday than the 00z. That event will not rely on super cold 850s for snow. Overrunning events depend on offshore flow and low level cold air. Mostly just watch the temperatures up above like 850 to see if you are going to get snow/freezing rain/sleet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Nice write up by the Portland NWS this morning. They share similar thoughts I have for the upcoming event(s) - "Sunday night through Thursday...Sunday night we willstart to see significant cool air moving into the region, with ourfirst chance for significant snow in the Cascade foothills startingSunday night. By Monday morning, models show wet-bulb zero heightsgetting down below 1000 feet. This coupled with 850 temperaturesaround -5C to -6C, means the potential for accumulating snow down toat least 1000 feet Monday morning with a secondary shortwave expectedto move across the region on Monday. Could see drying behind thefront overnight Sunday night which would help temperatures wet-bulbdown Monday morning for a chance of snow down to the Valley floor.Paved surfaces may be too warm for much accumulation, but can`t ruleout an inch which would impact the Monday morning commute in valleylocations from Salem northward. South of Salem may start as more of amix of rain and snow. Midday, snow levels should come up a bitallowing precipitation to turn to rain right around the Valley floor,but could continue to see accumulating snow down to 1000 feet.Precipitation turns back to showers Monday night with another briefperiod where we may see snow all the way down to the Valley floor,but drying behind the front should limit qpf Monday night.Tuesday will be the coldest morning so far this year, withtemperatures generally down below freezing everywhere except alongthe Coast. Will generally remain fairly cold through the day, withtemperatures in inland valley locations possibly not getting out ofthe 30s. In addition to cooler temperatures, will also see easterlywinds start to increase Tuesday evening, particularly in and near theColumbia Gorge, which could make it feel even colder Tuesday night.Forecast later next week gets a little more uncertain with anothersystem expected to move across the area sometime between Wednesdaynight and Friday night. This could be another high impact event,especially with the earlier scenario which could overrun cold airtrapped in the Valley for a freezing rain scenario. The laterscenarios may be a less impactful cold rain event. Stay tuned to theforecast for later next week as well." 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 King Euro gives me a good snow dump on Monday... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I don't have access to the Euro precip maps, but the overall picture looks much better than the GFS for both Monday and the overrunning event Thursday. Long live the King. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I don't have access to the Euro precip maps, but the overall picture looks much better than the GFS for both Monday and the overrunning event Thursday. Long live the King.Someone please post a higher resolution precip map for EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The EURO is so different from the GFS. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The EURO is so different from the GFS. No Kidding. 12Z Euro is a nice improvement on it's 00z run last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The EURO is so different from the GFS.I would way rather have it this way than the other way around. Euro is simply a superior model. That heartbreaking 06z run is a thing of the past now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I would way rather have it this way than the other way around. Euro is simply a superior model. That heartbreaking 06z run is a thing of the past now. Just wait until you see the 18z! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Just wait until you see the 18z! The block will be wimpier, wonkier, washed up and wife beating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 I will not rest until the Carbon Glacier reaches Wilkeson.That would be something! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Juneau forecast discussion this am: FXAK67 PAJK 021734 CCAAFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTEDNational Weather Service Juneau AK834 AM AKST .LONG TERM...Long range period mainly deals with a switch to amuch colder pattern that sticks around through most of next week.The cool down will be a one two punch affair. The first shot willbe incoming from the W and SW as the cold air wraps around a leeside low in the northern gulf. Even though the air mass startedout in the arctic the warm gulf waters will have modified the airmass by the time it gets here. However, 850 mb temps still drop to-10 to -12 C by Sat night which will be plenty cold enough forthe remaining precip in the panhandle to change over to snow asearly as Sat afternoon. QPF values will be rather low so anyaccumulations will only be around a few inches though some areascould see some higher amounts due to convergence or convectiveenhancement. Cold shot number two shows up late Sunday coming directly from theYukon this time. This is the air mass that will cause temperaturesto plummet into the teens and 20s or lower early next week. Theresults of this will be two fold. First, winds will change to thenorth and rapidly increase in the usual outflow areas. Galesexpected for many of these areas. Freezing spray also expectedwith the high winds and low air temperatures in the northern innerchannels. Second result will be the drying out of the panhandle asthe northerly winds push what precip is left southward. Mainforecast changes were in this time period as model trends had theprecip and accompanying weak low in the gulf slower to push outthen what was in there previously. Used mainly nam for guidance inthis period for details on the outflow winds and timing on whenthe precip ends. Extended forecast remains cold as the cold northerly windscontinue to feed cold air from the Yukon into the panhandle. Thereare indications that it will not be dry though. Guidance issuggesting that a gale force front may approach the panhandle midto late next week and with cold air still entrenched in the innerchannels it will likely be mostly snow that falls. Agreement onthe track of the main low is up in the air though as scenariosrange from a track into Haida Gwaii to it wandering around thewestern gulf. About the only thing we can say with some certaintyis that there will be a storm somewhere in the gulf in the latterhalf of next week. Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Last night's run of the 00z GEM looks really cold Wednesday morning as modified Arctic air arrives. This map shows lows in the upper teens to low 20s for the I-5 corridor. If this happens then everybody should start off as snow when the system arrives and it should be a lengthy overrunning/transition event.http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120200/132/sfct.us_nw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 The updated run of the 12z GEM looks really cold Wednesday morning as modified Arctic air arrives. This map shows highs in the upper teens to low 20s for the I-5 corridor. If this happens then everybody should start off as snow when the system arrives and it should be a lengthy overrunning/transition event. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016120200/132/sfct.us_nw.png Those are lows. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 That would be something!It used to! A mere 12,000 years ago. Blink of an eye geologically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro snowfall maps for Western Washington anyone? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Those are lows.Yeah I got too excited seeing the maps and said highs instead of lows LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Yeah I got too excited seeing the maps and said highs instead of lows LOL. Even those lows verifying would be very impressive...Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I can't imagine they will verify. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Those are lows.Stop being pessimistic 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Stop being pessimisticThis wasn't needed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Personally I will not rest until a glacier covers Puyallup a.k.a. the swamp..Goals man, Goals! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Euro snowfall maps for Western Washington anyone? Courtesy of Scott Sistek on Twitter (https://twitter.com/scottskomo) Euro snow for Monday Euro snow for Thursday 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 2, 2016 Report Share Posted December 2, 2016 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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